1. The Canadian Grievance Index: A F-e-d-e-r-a-l Story Jack Jedwab February 11, 2010 For Face the Nation Conference Ottawa

2. Methodology  Leger Marketing survey conducted with 1,500 adult Canadians January 30, 2010. A sample of this size yields a maximum margin of error of ± 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. In order to ensure a representative sample of the Canadian population, the data were weighted by age, gender, region and language according to the latest Statistics Canada information.”  “Sondage Léger Marketing réalisé auprès de 1500 Canadien(ne)s âges de 18 and et plus, le 30 janvier 2010. Un échantillon de cette taille présente une marge d’erreur de ± 2,6%, 19 fois sur 20. À l’aide des plus récentes données de Statistique Canada, les résultats ont été pondérés selon l’âge, le sexe, la région et la langue afin d’obtenir un échantillon représentatif de la population canadienne

3. Tension is inherent in federal systems of government  At the very root of federal systems of government is power sharing and the ongoing effort to strike some balance between resources and responsibilities between various levels of government. Not surprisingly where such power sharing occurs there is an inherent tension  In Canada the member provinces of the federation are very diverse in their respective geography, population size and resources and hence any effort to effect redistribution will likely create some degree of dissatisfaction.

4. But tension should not be considered unhealthy  Tension is not always unhealthy as it often permits adjustments to the system of government that make for more equitable distribution to the population.  In his essay on Federalism & Democracy, Professor David J. Bodenhamer cites James Madison to the effect that in the United States, “…the claims of the federal government and the claims of state governments have always existed in tension with each other.”  Bodenhamer notes that they still do. To resolve this tension requires ongoing reassessment concerning the proper distribution of power between the two levels of government. Disputes surrounding federalism, he adds, are about which government, state or national, best expresses the people's will. He concludes that the there are no final answers to these questions, and by consequence, “the tension inherent in federalism will never disappear.”

5. Developing indicators  In short whether it is in Canada or elsewhere federal systems give rise to some degree and form of grievance. We describe the grievances as f-e-d-e-r-a-l as the various indicators included look at such characteristics as:  fairness-equity- detachment- empowerment-respect advantage/disadvantage-leadership.

6. Grievance Index  The main indicators in the construction of the Canadian grievance index are as follows: (1) the degree to which the two levels of government are working well together (2) the extent to which the provinces are perceived to be treated with respect (3) the perceived degree of empowerment as reflected by the province’s influence on federal government decisions (4) the extent to which the provinces are believed to be receiving a fair amount of money from the federal government (5) the extent to which other provinces are perceived to getting better treatment and (6) the extent to which the federal government is perceived to be interfering in provincial decisions.

7. Categories of Grievance  An attempt is made to rank their grievances. We suggest the following four categories of grievance: (1) the Very Aggrieved who want a lot more for their province, (2) the somewhat aggrieved or softly aggrieved want some more for their province, (3) the somewhat satisfied who want a little more for their province and (4) the very satisfied who are by and large happy with what their province has.

8. Cumulative Grievance Very Aggrieved Somewhat Aggrieved Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied Total 122 (20.1%) 204 (34%) 158 (26.2) 42 (7.0) Maritimes 157 (26.0%) 220 (36.6%) 128 (21.3) 15 (2.5) Quebec 148 (24.6%) 208 (34.6%) 125 (20.8) 51 (8.5) Ontario 86 (14.3%) 184 (31%) 191 (31.8) 46 (7.6) Manitoba/ Saskatchew an 123 (20.1%) 242 (40.3%) 140 (23.3) 18 (3.0) Alberta 130 (21.8%) 182 (30%) 164 (27.3) 42 (7.0) British Columbia 162 (27%) 208 (34.6%) 149 (25.0) 25 (4.0) One in five Canadians very aggrieved and one in three somewhat aggrieved-Maritimes, BC and Prairies most aggrieved

9. Very Aggrieved Somewhat Aggrieved Total Aggrieved Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied The federal and provincial governments are working well together 17,7%40,8%58.526,7%3,6% My province is treated with the respect it deserves in Canada 16,4%29,5%45.935,1%11,4% People in my province have strong influence on federal government decisions 20,7%34,6%55.325,4%7,6% The federal government interferes in provincial decision-making 15,1%37,3%52.424,8%6,8% The federal government does not transfer the fair amount of money to my province 25,6%29,1%54.716,4%6,5% Other provinces get better treatment than my province 25,6%32,2%57.820,7%5,3% Strongest grieve over money and perceived disadvantage compared to others

10. The federal and provincial governments are working well together Very Aggrieved Somewhat Aggrieved Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied Total1841274 Maritimes2540240 Quebec2050206 Ontario1640283 Manitoba/ Saskatchewan 1236371 Alberta1535336 British Columbia 1935283 Prairies most likely to think fed-prov working well together while Quebecers most likely to disagree

11. My province is treated with the respect it deserves in Canada Very Aggrieved Somewhat Aggrieved Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied Total16303511 Maritimes2238294 Quebec24362412 Ontario9234414 Manitoba/ Saskatchewa n 2039246 Alberta14264312 British Columbia 2030419 Quebecers most likely to believe they’re least respected

12. The federal government interferes in provincial decision- making Very Aggrieved Somewhat Aggrieved Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied Total1537257 Maritimes1537214 Quebec2336219 Ontario1037278 Manitoba/ Saskatchewan 1139252 Alberta1740244 British Columbia 1538275 Quebecers most likely to think Feds interference in provincial decision-making

13. The federal government does not transfer the fair amount of money to my province Very Aggrieved Somewhat Aggrieved Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied Total2629257 Maritimes2329215 Quebec30262111 Ontario2132275 Manitoba/ Saskatchewan 1638256 Alberta3316245 British Columbia 3231274 BCers most likely to feel they don’t get fair amount from FEDS

14. Other provinces get better treatment than my province Very Aggrieved Somewhat Aggrieved Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied Total2632215 Maritimes3536152 Quebec3029167 Ontario1732295 Manitoba/ Saskatchewan 255192 Alberta2927247 British Columbia 3633123 BC, Maritimers and Prairie most likely to feel others better treated

15. People in my province have strong influence on federal government decisions Very Aggrieved Somewhat Aggrieved Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied Total2135258 Maritimes2940180 Quebec2141236 Ontario12263614 Manitoba/ Saskatchewan 3339201 Alberta2438168 British Columbia 3241141 Ontarians most likely to feel they have strong influence on federal government decisions

16. % AGREE People in my province have strong influence on federal government decisions People in my province have strong influence on provincial government decisions Total3347 Maritimes1839 Quebec2952 Ontario4950 Manitoba/ Saskatchewan 2146 Alberta2449 British Columbia 1432 Canadians feel they have more influence on province than on federal government

17. People in my province have strong influence on federal government decisions The federal and provincial government s are working well together My province is treated with the respect it deserve s in Canada The federal governme nt interferes in provincial decision- making The federal govern ment does not transfe r the fair amount of money to my provinc e Other provinc es get better treatme nt than my provinc e Strongly agree 64.1 64.174.246.544.743.0 Somewhat agree 44.5 44.568.251.266.452.9 Somewhat disagree 27.0 27.039.757.659.063.2 Strongly disagree 14.5 14.518.763.666.179.0 Perceived influence on federal government reduces grievance

18. Identification The federal and ProvincialGovernments are working well togetherMy province is Treated with the respect it Deserves in Canada People in MyProvinceHaveStrongInfluence on federal GovernmetdecisionsTheFederalGovernment interferes in ProvincialDecisionmaking The federal Government does not\ transfer the fair amount of money to my province OtherProvinces get better Treatment than my province Canadian only 16,4%13,5%17,6%11,1%22,4%20,5% Canadian first but also from your province 17,6%13,1%23,3%13,6%24,9%25,7% Equally Canadian and from your province 12,6%11,3%15,5%9,2%18,0%22,3% From your province but also Canadian 17,1%23,1%23,1%23,0%34,2%36,9% From your province only 42,5%49,4%41,5%41,3%44,4%39,2% Canadian “only to equal” feel less aggrieved