1. Twitter: The mental state of humankind Daniel Allen COMP 2903 X1 Fall 2010

2. Overview What is Twitter? Twitter mood predicts the stock market Why is this important? Conclusions

3. What is Twitter?

4. Twitter is a real-time information network powered by people all around the world that lets you share and discover what’s happening now. twitter.com/about The ‘SMS of the Internet’Leslie D’Monte - Business Standard190 million visitors per month65 million tweets per dayAs of June 2010The ‘SMS of the Internet’Leslie D’Monte - Business Standard190 million visitors per month65 million tweets per dayAs of June 2010

5. What is Twitter? 140 character messages Sent via phone, web Related to microblogging Media outlets to deliver breaking news stories Businesses to offer product details, discounts Individuals to post personal messages «...Short burst[s] of inconsequential information...» Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter Used by... Tweets are...

6. «Twitter mood predicts the stock market»

7. «Twitter Mood predicts the stock market» arXiv physics blog A publication of the MIT Technology Review Study conducted by researchers Johan Bollen, Huina Mao, and Xiao-Jun Zeng Analyzed 9.7 million tweets by 2.7 million tweeters, collected from 2008 Attempt to correlate between Twitter moods and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Challenges lie in separating the noise from the useful

8. «Twitter Mood predicts the stock market» Google-Profile-of-Mood- States (GPOMS): Algorithm to analyze words and index them based on six different mood states - happiness, kindness, alertness, sureness, vitality and calmness

9. «Twitter Mood predicts the stock market» Found correlation between DJIA and calmness Accuracy of 87.6% in predicting up and down changes in closing values between 2 and 6 days later

10. «Twitter Mood predicts the stock market» Two main criticisms leveled at the work: Lack of plausible mechanism - no-one can explain precisely how or why the calmness index is related to the DJIA Twitter feeds used came from global sources - can tweeters in Timbuktu really affect the American stock market? Mirrors a similar study conducted in April, predicting box office earnings by analyzing film tweets

11. «Twitter Mood predicts the stock market» Research reveals a number of similar projects: Microsoft QuickView: Semantic search of tweets Microsoft Natural Language Computing Group Microsoft Research Asia Project Emporia: News-recommender system Microsoft Research Cambridge and FUSE Labs UK Twecan.com: Sentiment Analysis of Tweets Halifax, NS

12. Why is this important? Could see a transition from search engines to discovery engines, changing the way we search online No longer will you ask machines for search results - you’ll ask humanity Trending topics may drive decisions - but what will drive trends? Massive boon for marketers - tweet feeds described as «the mental state of humankind»

13. Conclusion Twitter feeds can be used to keep a finger on the public pulse May be used to find predictors for even the most variable systems Lots of research on how to harness this massive volume of data Technologies coming out of these projects may change how we search, decide and market

14. FIN

15. References ArXiv.org. Cornell University Library. Web. 26 Oct. 2010..http://arxiv.org/ Bollen, Johan, Huina Mao, and Xiao-Jun Zeng. "Twitter Mood Predicts the Stock Market." Diss. Indiana University, 2010. Abstract. ArXiv.org. Cornell University Library, 14 Oct. 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010..abs/1010.3003>. Bollen, Johan. "Past Events - Complex Networks: Determining the Public Mood State by Analysis of Microblogging Posts." ISI Foundation. Institute for Scientific Exchange Foundation, 6 July 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010.. Bollen, Johan.news=FYZKLDDGUP7LAEEE3V8YDHK9HGUY56BK>. D'Monte, Leslie. "Swine Flu's Tweet Tweet Causes Online Flutter." Business Standard. 29 Apr. 2009. Web. 26 Oct. 2010.. D'Monte, Leslie. "Swine Flu's Tweet Tweet Ca Knies, Rob. "Innovation Day: Past, Present, Future - Microsoft Research." Microsoft Research - Turning Ideas into Reality. Microsoft Corporation, 25 Oct. 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010..t, Present, Future - Microsoft Research." Microsoft Research - Turning Ideas into Reality. Micro Sarno, David. "Twitter Creator Jack Dorsey Illuminates the Site's Founding Document. Part I | Technology | Los Angeles Times." Top of the Ticket | Election Day Is One Week Away: Here's Your Voter Guide | Los Angeles Times. 18 Feb. 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010..| Election Day Is One Week Away: Here's Your Voter Guide | Los Angeles Times. 1 "Technology Review: Blogs: ArXiv Blog: Twitter Mood Predicts The Stock Market." Technology Review: The Authority on the Future of Technology. 18 Oct. 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010.. "Technology Review: Blogs: ArXiv Blog: Twitter Used to Predict Box Office Revenues." Technology Review: The Authority on the Future of Technology. 1 Apr. 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010..hnology Review: Blogs: ArXiv Blog: Twitter Used to Predict Box Office R Twitter Inc. "About Twitter." Twitter. 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010..