1. Implications of Biofuels for Nutrient Cycling in Agriculture Luc M. Maene and Patrick Heffer International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) SCOPE Biofuels Rapid Assessment Project Workshop 22-25 September 2008, Gummersbach, Germany

2.  Evolution of Biofuel Production  Wastes and Co-products Generated during Biofuel Production  Impact of Biofuels on World Fertilizer Consumption  Implications of Biofuels for Nutrient Cycling  Outlook  Conclusion Contents

3. Evolution of Biofuel Production

4. Evolution of Global Biofuel Production (billion gallons) Source: IEA and F.O. Licht, in W. Coyle 20071981 2007 world output = 18.7 Bgal according to FAPRI

5. Biofuel Production by Country in 2007 Source: F.O. Licht, in W. Coyle

6. Ethanol Production Global Feedstocks (2006) Sugar crops, mostly sugar cane Cereals, mostly maize Tubers, mostly cassava Source: IFA Biofuels Report, PotashCorp

7. Biofuels – Where Are We Going?  2007 world output ~19 billion gallons (Bg)  Ethanol: 16.3 Bg  Biodiesel: 2.4 Bg  Very ambitious targets  USA: 9 Bg in 2008  24 Bg by 2017  EU: 10% in vehicle fuels by 2020  Brazil / Argentina: biodiesel targets  Realistic mandates?  Enough land and water available?  Environmental impact?  Food and nutrition security impact? A pause in biofuel expansion is likely Mandates might be revised downward Sources: FAPRI, USDA, EC

8. US Biofuel Outlook 2007 US Renewable Fuel Standard (bill gallons) US Maize Uses (bill bu) Source: USDA RFS ethanol derived from com starch Total RFS

9. Global Biofuel Outlook These projections do not take new US and EU mandates into account World Ethanol Output (Bg) World Biodiesel Output (Bg) Source: FAPRI

10. Wastes and Co-products Generated during Biofuel Production

11. Relative Evolution of World Maize Uses 172 Mt 485 Mt 85 Mt Base 100 Co-products used as feed Source: IGC

12. Products Resulting from the Wet and Dry Milling of Maize ProcessProductYield /t of maize Wet millingBioethanol373 l Gluten feed241 kg Maize oil27 kg Gluten meal47 kg Dry millingBioethanol387 l Distiller’s grains313 kg Source: F.O. Licht

13. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) Result of a combination of coarse grains and solubles generated during ethanol production from maize (dry milling) In the USA, 75-80% of distiller’s grains is sold to local livestock producers as DDGS DDGS has higher protein content than maize grain (starch removed) Can be included in feed up to:  30% for cattle  10-15% for poultry and swine

14. US Consumption of DDGS Ruminants Swine Poultry Biofuel Co-product Use ~20 Mt of maize co-products are used as animal feed in the USA (i.e. ~9% of the US feed volume) vs. ~150 Mt maize and ~30 Mt soybean Rapeseed conversion to diester generates 40% oilseed cake. Glycerine is another marketable co-product Source: Feedstuffs

15. The First Commercial-Scale Closed Loop Refinery, Mead, Nebraska, USA www.e3biofuels.com CH 4 CO 2 Grain 8 M bu/yr = 15,000 ha Ethanol Distillers grain Grain NO 3 leaching N 2 O CH 4 Meat NO 3 leaching manure, urine Stillage 100% thermal energy CH 4 Biofertilizer CH 4 CO 2 Fertilizer offset in crop production Horticultural uses/organic ag? Methane Biodigestor N 2 O Corn & soybean production Cattle Feedlot (28,000 heads of cattle) Ethanol Plant (24 M gallons/yr)

16. Ethanol from Sugar Cane Co-products/wastes generated during cane-based ethanol production in Brazil:  Filter cake: 12 kg/t sugar cane  Vinasse: 10-15 litres per litre of ethanol  Bagasse: ~300 kg/t sugar cane; burnt to supply energy to sugar mills and bioethanol plants  Trash: 4Mha are currently burned before harvesting; progressive conversion to mechanical harvest Vinasse, filter cake and ashes are largely returned to the field as nutrient sources

17. Impact of Biofuels on World Fertilizer Consumption

18. Fertilizer Applications to Main Feedstocks in 2006/07 Assumptions:  ~50% of Brazilian cane converted to ethanol  ~30% of US maize converted to ethanol  10-15% of EU rapeseed converted to biodiesel  Similar application rates by crop for food, feed and biofuel uses Source: IFA

19. Estimates of Global Fertilizer Use on Biofuel Crops in 2007/08 (Mt nutrients) 2.1% 1.9% 4.2% Source: IFA

20. Impact of Biofuel Production on Fertilizer Demand Impact on nutrient requirements (larger cultivated area, more fertilizer-intensive crops, higher yields) Changes in nutrient flows through recycling of wastes (vinasse) and co-products (DDGS, oilseed meals) Strong impact on prices of feedstock (maize, oil crops, sugar crops) and other crops through competition for land Higher crop prices  Higher fertilizer application rates

21. Implications of Biofuels for Nutrient Cycling

22. Where Do Nutrients End Up ? Ethanol and biodiesel do not contain N, P and K In biofuel production processes, N, P and K end up in wastes and co-products With maize-based ethanol and rapeseed-based biodiesel, most of the N, P and K is in distiller’s grains and oilseed meals, which serve as animal feed Part of the N, P and K in animal feed goes back to the soil through manure applications With cane-based ethanol, a large share of the N, P and K in the wastes is recycled directly to the soil

23. Nutrient Content of DDGS High-quality maize DDGS Maize grain (88% dry matter basis) Crude protein 27.2%8.6% Nitrogen (N) 1 4.3%1.4% Phosphorus (P) 0.79%0.28% Available P 0.71% Potassium (K) 0.84% Sulphur (S) 0.44% 1 Conversion factor protein to N: 0.16 (6.25 kg protein contains 1 kg N) Source: US Grains Council

24. Estimated Amount of Nutrients in Ethanol Co-products Used as Animal Feed in the USA Estimated total amount (‘000 t/yr) Crude protein 5,400 Nitrogen (N) 860 Phosphorus (P) 160 Available P 140 Potassium (K) 170 Sulphur (S) 90 Assumptions: ~20 Mt of the maize co- products are used as animal feed in the USA The co-products are mostly DDGS

25. Estimated Amount of Nutrients in Ethanol Co-products Used as Animal Feed in the USA ~1.2 Mt N+P+K from ethanol co-products are used as animal feed in the USA Equivalent to ~15% of the fertilizer nutrients applied to US maize (7.9 Mt N+P+K)  Equivalent to ~16% of the N, ~20% of the P and ~9% of the K applied to maize as fertilizers This amount will increase with ethanol production expansion Feed use efficiency and recycling through manure application should be improved to reduce nutrient losses

26. Half of the sugar cane is used for ethanol production A large share of the nutrients contained in filter cake, vinasse, trash and ashes is already returned to the soil Substantial N losses are still due to cane burning and manual harvesting Potential for Recycling Nutrients in Ethanol Co-products Production in Brazil Estimated total amount (‘000 t/yr) Nitrogen (N) 320 Phosphorus (P) 70 Potassium (K) 600 Total 990 Calculated from : VII e VIII Seminarios de Tecnologia Agronômica Copersucar Half of this amount comes from ethanol production; the other half from sugar production

27. Local vs. Trans-boundary Impacts US ethanol is mostly produced from domestic maize  Impact mostly local through nutrient accumulation spots, relocation of feedlots next to ethanol plants…  Trans-boundary impact through smaller maize exports Brazilian ethanol is exclusively produced from domestic cane  Mostly local impact; limited due to good nutrient recycling EU biodiesel is mostly produced from domestic rapeseed  Impact mostly trans-boundary through changes in vegetable oil and oilseed meal trade (likely less soybean meal and more palm oil imports in the medium term)

28. Outlook

29. Ligno-cellulosic materials (maize stover, cane, grass, forestry material) all export large amounts of K K supply/demand balance is very tight Process and management should allow for optimum recycling of K, otherwise large additional K fertilizer production capacities would be required Ligno-Cellulosic Ethanol Nutrient removal (kg/ha) by maize parts (for a grain yield of 9.5 t/ha) GrainStover N12062 P2O5P2O5 7118 K2OK2O47188 Source: IFA World Fertilizer Use Manual

30. Biodiesel – Emerging Feedstocks Oil palm  Attempts to produce biodiesel from palm oil in SE Asia, and to export feedstock to the EU  Large K (and Mg) requirements  recycling needed Soybean  Development of biodiesel from soybean in the USA, Brazil and Argentina  Will increase soybean acreage and soybean meal availability Jatropha  Tolerant to drought, but productive only under favourable conditions  will require appropriate nutrient supply

31. Conclusion

32. Conclusion Currently, potential for recycling:  US maize-based ethanol: ~1.2 Mt N+P+K from distiller’s grains (mostly N)  Brazilian cane-based ethanol: ~0.5 Mt N+P+K from cane co- products (mostly K)  EU rapeseed-based biodiesel: smaller amounts (~5.5% N and 0.8% P in rapeseed cakes) Amounts expected to rise quickly Use of ligno-cellulosic material and palm oil as feedstocks will require careful K management

33. Contact for further information pheffer@fertilizer.org www.fertilizer.org