1. Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model Mary Chepiga 609-771-3955 mchepiga@usgs.gov Susan Colarullo 609-771-3922 colarull@usgs.gov Jeff Fischer 609-771-3953 fischer@usgs.gov US Geological Survey Delaware NAWQA

2. Today’s Talk The SPARROW model technique The SPARROW model technique Delaware River Basin SPARROW results for Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) for 2000 Delaware River Basin SPARROW results for Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) for 2000 SPARROW and water-quality monitoring SPARROW and water-quality monitoring

3. SPARROW* Model Concept *SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed Attributes Watershed Attributes

4. relates measured loads at monitoring stations to stream and land attributes SPARROW relates measured loads at monitoring stations to stream and land attributes Sources Stream Network Landscape Features Monitoring Data

5. Model predictions are made for every reach (not just monitored reaches) Load, yield, concentration Contribution from each source In-stream and reservoir losses Incremental and delivered loads for stream reaches, basins and sub-basins Statistical measures of uncertainty for predictors and predictions Stream reach Reach basin

6. Monitored/Calculated Loads

7. 2000 Total Nitrogen Yields 97 sites 97 sites 50% are less than 700 kg/km 2 50% are less than 700 kg/km 2 10 % are greater than 2,000 kg/km 2 10 % are greater than 2,000 kg/km 2 Kg/Km 2 >2000 >700 and <2000 < 700 Major Stream

8. TP Loads Map here Map here 2000 Total Phosphorus Yields 110 sites 110 sites 50% are less than 25 kg/km 2 50% are less than 25 kg/km 2 10 % are greater than 75 kg/km 2 10 % are greater than 75 kg/km 2 Kg/Km 2 >75 >25 and <75 < 25 Major Stream

9. Total Nitrogen Total Phosphorus Atmospheric deposition Population Fertilizer applied to agricultural land Animal waste Diffuse (forest, urban, non- agricultural)* Water-holding capacity Precipitation Stream size Reservoir size Sources Land-to-Water Delivery Population Fertilizer applied to agricultural land Animal waste Diffuse (urban, non- agricultural)* Stream size* Reservoir size In-Stream Transport

10. Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model Results

11. DRB SPPARROW Results DRB SPPARROW Results for entire basin Total Nitrogen (TN) 57.8 million kg Total Phosphorus (TP) 4.0 million kg Atmospheric Deposition 14.5 kg Population 11.6 kg Fertilizer 12.7 kg Waste 18.4 kg Diffuse* 0.6 kg Population 2.5 kg Fertilizer 0.5 kg Waste 0.7 kg Diffuse 0.3 kg

12. Total Nitrogen load, in kilograms per year Total Nitrogen 2000 Total Loads < 1,000 1,000 - 5,000 5,001 – 50,000 50,001 – 500,000 > 500,000

13. Total Nitrogen Incremental Load, in kilograms per year Total Nitrogen 2000 Incremental Loads < 200 201 - 500 500 – 1,000 1,000 – 10,000 > 10,000

14. Total Nitrogen Incremental Yield in kg per km 2 per year Total Nitrogen 2000 Incremental Yields < 1,000 1,000 – 2,000 2,001 – 4,000 4,001 – 6,000 > 6,000

15. TN Major Sources TP Major Sources Major Sources Atmospheric Deposition Diffuse Fertilizer Waste Population

16. Total Nitrogen by Source and Basin

17. Total Nitrogen Delivered to Estuary (39 Mkg)

18. Nitrogen Incremental Yield by Source and AMNET Basin NONESEVEREMODERATE IMPAIRMENT

19. SPARROW and Water-Quality Monitoring

21. SPARROW TN Errors LowestHighest Error Evaluation Model explains ~90 to 95% of spatial variability in loads Prediction errors for stream reaches are typically +/- 5 to 60% of load Generally half of the independent variables are non-significant

23. Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model Points of Contact Mary Chepiga 609-771-3955 mchepiga@usgs.gov Susan Colarullo 609-771-3922 colarull@usgs.gov Jeff Fischer 609-771-3953 fischer@usgs.gov US Geological Survey Delaware NAWQA

24. Load Sources Land-to-water delivery Instream decay Error SPARROW Budget Equation Spatial non-linear regression Adjusts land and stream delivery factors on the basis of basin-wide statistical relationships Minimizes errors at monitoring sites

25. Total Phosphorus Load, in kilograms per year Total Phosphorus 2000 Total Loads < 1,000 1,000 - 10,000 10,001 – 20,000 20,001 – 400,000 > 400,000

26. Total Phosphorus Incremental Load, in kilograms per year Total Phosphorus 2000 Incremental Loads < 50 51 - 500 501 – 1,000 1,001 – 10,000 > 10,000

27. TP Total Loads TPIncrementalLoads

28. Total Phosphorus Incremental Yield, in kg per km 2 per year Total Phosphorus 2000 Incremental Yields < 0.5 0.6 - 2.0 2.1 – 4.0 4.1 – 10 > 10

29. Data Sources

30. Data Sources (cont’d)