1. Perspectives of water stress in Cyprus Iacovos Iacovides Water Resources Specialist European Forum Cyprus "Cyprus without water? One island, one problem and some related challenges" Barcelona - Nov. 13-16, 2008 Council of Europe European Union Conseil de l'Europe Union européenne

2. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 2 Contents  Water Resources  Water Demands  Significant water management issues  Desertification  Drought

3. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 3 THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES ISLAND-WIDE (1951-1981) Surface water 54% Northern Part 30% Groundwater 46%

4. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 4 THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES AFTER 1970 (G.C. Southern part only (1970-2000)) ANNUAL WATER SUPPLY 2860 EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (83%) 2370 BALANCE “USEABLE” 490 SURFACE WATER 295 GROUNDWATER 195 + 43 LOSSES 160 LOSSES 102 EXCESS PUMPING -46 DAM RELEASES 125 PUMPING & SPRINGS 124 DIVERSIONS 25 AREA OF G.C. CYPRUS = 6153 km 2 AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL = 465 mm TOTAL ANNUAL WATER SUPPLY = 2860 Mm 3 83% EVAPOTRANSPIRATION = 2370 Mm 3 BALANCE “USEABLE” = 490 SURFACE WATER 295 GROUNDWATER 195 490 River diversions = 25 Pumping =124 Use from dams = 125 Springs Aquifer recharge* = 43 Losses to sea = 160 Losses to sea = 102 Excess pumping = - 46 295 *238 Estimated >10% reduction

5. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 5 Troodos Mountains Rainfall in 1917 - 1970 vs 1971 - 2000 YEAR OF DROP CHANGE -100 mm (15-25% less) STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION RECORDS (1916-2000) SHOWS A STEP CHANGE AROUND 1970. 100 mm lower than older period (or 15 to 25% ) Data used for the design of dams Recent observations 1970-2000

6. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 6 Average annual rainfall (Southern-part) NOTICE THE DROP OF RAINFALL AT VARIOUS PERIODS: 1901-1970 541 mm 1971-2005 470 mm 1987-2008 453 mm

7. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 7 Relation between annual rainfall and inflow for Kouris dam FLOW - 34% RAIN-13%  Surface runoff reduction has been 20 to 60%

8. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 8 Inflow of water into dams (1987-2008)  The decrease of inflow to dams varies between 24% and 58%. The island has roughly 40% less water than had been assumed based on pre-1970 records

9. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 9 Water storage in Dams (1988 – 2008) Present storage is 8.8 MCM or 3.2% of the 273.6 MCM Capacity Lowest ever

10. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 10 The Morphou coastal aquifer (after M. Ergil: Eastern Mediterranean University)  meets the needs of the North (275 km 2 45-100 m thick). Aquifer annual safe yield in northern Cyprus is 74 MCM. But 29 MCM are over-extracted (UNDP 1970, DSI 2002). Surface water (13MCM) and dams (7) make the total potential to 94 MCM Thus the water deficit of North Cyprus is about 12.5 million m 3 (106.6 – 94.1)

11. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 11 Water transport from Turkey (after G. Elgiran, M. Ergil, European Univ. Lefke)  Water transported in large water bags (10000 to 30000 m 3 ) towed by ship from Anamur Turkey to the coast of Morphou in the period of 1998-2002 amounted to 4.1 MCM. TCM = Thousands m 3

12. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 12 Use of water resources in northern part of Cyprus ( after World Bank ) Some 76% are used for irrigation and 2% for livestock

13. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 13 Options for solution of water problem in northern Cyprus  Conversion of traditional irrigation methods to modern irrigation on 1400 ha of land in Morphou  Rehabilitation and use of treated wastewater  Importation of 7 MCM from Turkey  Transportation cost of water imported from Turkey to Morphou by a tanker with a capacity of 40,000 m 3 was found to be $0.79 per m 3 (incl. infrastructure and port handling) (after H. Bicak & G. Jenkins, 1999).  Thus importation is competitive to desalination  Leakage in the network (est. 30%) is the most important variable affecting price of water.  Water resource development needs to focus on increasing the supply of potable water at the expense of irrigation.

14. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 14 Kokkinochoria aquifer water levels and sea intrusion (1994 -2000) > - 40 m 500 mg/l

15. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 15 Akrotiri Aquifer: sea intrusion 2001 Hydrograph of borehole 775 (Elev. 15.63 m amsl) 1961-2001 500 mg/l

16. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 16 Water Demand in southern part of Cyprus Some 69% goes to agriculture (182 MCM). Domestic accounts for 25% or 67.5 MCM (Only 5% goes to Tourism). RESIDENTIAL TOURISM

17. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 17 Supply of water from GWWs (1991-2007) Note the steady increase in domestic demand; Irrigation demand steady but variable according to supply availability

18. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 18 Domestic water supply sources (GWWs) (1991-2007) Desalination became a new source of supply after 1997 and 2001

19. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 19 Irrigation water supply sources (GWWs) 1991-2007 Reuse of tertiary treated effluent for irrigation is the new added source; supply variable according to water availability; Better management for reliable but lesser quantities/ year

20. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 20 Significant Water Management Issues  Over-exploitation of groundwaters  Hydromorphological pressures and quantity – flow of surface waters (degradation of natural characteristics)  Pollution:  Agricultural  Urban  Other sources (industry, mining, rainwater run-off)  Conservation of protected areas and significant hydrophilous ecosystems  Other issues  Administrative issues  Water pricing (Financial + Resource + Environmental Cost)  Pressures on coastal water bodies

21. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 21 Significant Water Management Issues ( continued )  Desalination (costs relying on imported fossil fuels (0.92 Euro/m 3 for Dhekelia and 0.68 for Larnaka) – Intensive use of energy: impact on the environment (indirect greenhouse gas emissions (GHG))  Import of water from Greece or elsewhere (high cost about 5 Euro/m 3 )  Water Demand Management  Reduction of agriculture for the benefit of domestic supply  Control of leakages from distribution networks  Developing water awareness  Combating desertification  Water Scarcity and Drought

22. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 22 Desertification is … Soil losing its productive capacity

23. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 23 Factors of Desertification  Natural factors  climate temperature precipitation  soil type erosion  vegetation species Biomass

24. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 24 Over mining Overgrazing Population increasing Fires & Deforestation  Human factors Factors of Desertification

25. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 25 Desertification conditions in Cyprus as per UNESCO/FAO classification

26. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 26 Effect of Climate Change to Desertification Under climate change desertification INCREASE by 23.5% Sensitivity ClassIndex Range % of land (under Present conditions) % of land (under Climate Change Scenario – 85% ppt & 1.3 ° C) Critical1.38 to >1.5357.070.4 Sensitive1.23 to 1.3742.329.5 Potential1.17 to 1.220.70.1 Non-affected<1.1700

27. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 27 Sensitive areas to DESERTIFICATION: Present conditions Critical 57% Fragile 42.3%

28. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 28 Sensitive areas to DESERTIFICATION: Climate Change Critical 70.4% Fragile 29.5% Scenario: 15% less rainfall and temperature increase by 1.3°C

29. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 29 Drought is …

30. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 30 Drought is… Water Demand Water Supply There is 20% probability that annual rainfall could be 390-470 mm (drier years) and/or <390 mm (driest years) Drought is a normal, repetitive climatologic feature

31. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 31 Trends in recorded rainfall and runoff  Rainfall:  Statistical analysis over 1916/1917-1999/2000 shows that the precipitation displays a step change around 1970.  For 1916/1917 to 1969/70 no trend can be detected.  For 1970/1971 to 1999/2000 a slight decreasing trend but not significant is noted.  For areas of elevation higher than 500 m, the mean annual precipitation in the recent period is lower by 100 mm or more than the mean of the older period (or 15% -25%) There is no proof that this decrease is due to global climate change, but this possibility is not necessarily excluded.  Runoff:  The lower rainfall has caused a significant reduction in the water available on the island as compared to the pre-1970 records.  Decreases in runoff for all the dams after 1970 with respect to the older time series vary between 20 and 60 percent. (13% reduction in ppt results to 34% reduction in runoff for Kouris)

32. I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 32 Trends in Demand  Demand:  Already the demand is much higher than the supply and is rising. New sources of water are scarce or very expensive. Water demand management through proper water pricing and reduction of agriculture need to be seriously considered if we are to maintain the acquired standard of living and combat desertification. Conditions are likely to become worse if the scenarios for Climate Change materialize.

33. iaco@cytanet.com.cy