1. Comments on Financial Architecture – Crisis Prevention FFD UNDESA, CBC, Com Sec 6 th March 2007 Stephany Griffith-Jones (Institute of Development Studies) s.griffith-jones@ids.ac.uk www.stephanygj.com s.griffith-jones@ids.ac.uk www.stephanygj.com

2. 1. The new international context 2. Features of international capital markets; procyclicality 3. Need for counter-cyclical intruments a. Banking regulation b. Market instruments e.g. GDP-linked bonds c. The provision of IMF counter-cyclical liquidity i. Middle-income (proposed RAL) ii. Low-income (better compensatory finance)

3. Benefits of GDP-linked bonds for borrowing countries Stabilize Government spending and limit pro- cyclicality in good and bad times Reduce likelihood of defaults and debt crises Could benefit both emerging and developed economies

4. Benefits of GDP-linked bonds for investors Opportunity to take position on countries’ growth rates. Provide valuable diversification opportunity Lower frequency of defaults and crises, which can be costly and result in large losses

5. Benefits of GDP-linked bonds for the global financial system Externalities: For other investors For other issuers For multilaterals Justifies public action to help initially develop this instrument Possible roles for IFI’s, MDBs and RDBs

6. Ways forward on addressing concerns: Investors - Sufficient liquidity and scale - Potential problems of GDP measurement being overstated - Initial issues of pricing Issuers - Perceived benefits to exceed additional cost

7. An idea whose time has come Large investor appetite for EM risk and abundant liquidity in financial markets Financial markets innovative in creating instruments that offer antecedents for GDP- linked bonds Favourable experience with Argentine warrants Potential consistency with Islamic finance