1. Simulation Scenarios
Barry Dainton

2. Preliminary (crude) definitions: real v. simulated
An experience is simulated if it is produced by non-standard methods in a controlled fashion
non-standard = NOT by bodies/brains interacting with physical environment
Eg. Demons, computers
A life (or part of one) is virtual if it is composed of simulated experiences.

3. Just suppose:
That when the universe is considered as a whole, from a God’s eye vantage point, simulated lives greatly outnumber real lives
Call this scenario: ‘simulation dominance’

4. Simulation Dominance virtual
real
sum total of conscious lives (in entire universe, all times)

5. Simulation Argument (one form)
Simulation Dominance is probable
No reason to think:
human lives are less likely to be simulated than other types
early C21-type human lives are less likely to be simulated than other types
So: it is probable that our lives are simulated.

6. The Simulation Argument (Bostrom)
Simulation Hypothesis: for every non-virtual early 21st century human life there are many subjectively indistinguishable (or broadly similar) virtual lives
REAL
VIRTUAL

7. Simulation Argument: cont.
Your conviction that your life is non-virtual is no better founded than anybody else’s.
So: if the Simulation Hypothesis is true, the odds of your life being non-virtual are low (e.g. 1 in 10)

8. Everyone believes their own lives to be real, non-virtual …
I’m
real!
I’m
real!
I’m real!
I’m real!
I’m real! R R
I’m real!
I’m real!
I’m real!
I’m real!

9. Simulation Argument: conclusion
High probability
Low probability
‘SH is
true’
‘My life
is real’
Low probability
High probability
Probability assignments (not to scale)

10. An old theme with a new twist
The Matrix
Tipler
The Truman
Show
Are we leading
virtual lives?
Bostrom
Vanilla Sky
Are we living in
a simulation?
Chalmers
Permutation
City
McGinn
… and sudden notoriety
The 13th Floor

11. ‘Could my life be a simulation?’ Logically Threat = idle Possible
(merely)
Descartes?
Nomologically
possible
(merely)
Standard vat-brains?
Most sci-fi?
Threat
= real!
Simulation
Argument
Nomologically
possible
(& quite likely!)
Tipler, Bostrom, posthumanists

12. “Simulation Argument”
My aims here:
“Simulation Argument”
conclusion: take
simulation menace
(somewhat) seriously
extend range
address queries
explore
ramifications

13. Next: Why believe menacing simulations might exist in the required (vast) numbers?
6 billion
actual
60 billion?
virtual
Type-2003 day/life streams
600 billion??

14. Another distinction: S-simulations H-simulations Two methods
of simulation
generation
S-simulations
H-simulations
Two types of
simulation

15. S-simulations: H-simulations: COMPUTER ALONE COMPUTER + BRAIN
conscious lives generated by running software on computer
(NOT brains!)
H-simulations:
conscious lives produced by directly tampering with neural hardware
Matrix-style
vat-brain
COMPUTER
ALONE
COMPUTER
+ BRAIN

16. S-sims: the high-road ‘posthumanism’ computers of VAST power
repositories of
most conscious life

17. Tipler Bostrom (one of many) Planetary-mass computer many simulations
‘universal computer’
many simulations
of every possible human
stream of consciousness
(of finite duration)
Bostrom
Planetary-mass
computer
1042 ops
Time required for running of ‘ancestor simulation’ = 10-7 seconds
(one of many)

18. ‘Ancestor simulation’ = simulation of entire mental history of humankind
Typical human brain: operations per second =
Ops required for 1 ancestor simulation =
100 billion humans x 50 years/human x 3 million secs per year x 1014 – 1017 ops per brain per second
(assumption: humankind superseded in a few centuries)

19. S-simulations: low road

20. Desktop PC Power: next few years
computational power
time
Predictions: Kurzweil, Moravec
100 million ops
Supercomputer (circa 2000) = 10 million ops
typical human brain
‘Moore’s Law’: computational power per $ doubles every two years

21. S-simulations: low road
Small-scale sims; on small machines (e.g. desktop)
In large numbers …
entertainment: God-games (‘The Sims’)
research: historical, political
E.g. exploring counterfactual histories
Over many years (a few centuries)
= billions of menacing simulations

22. God games: ‘The Sims’, ‘Civilization’, etc.
Currently, their ‘inhabitants’ are not conscious
In future: that could change
more processing power/memory
more autonomous characters -> more entertaining spectacles

23. An ordinary (virtual) family: ‘The Sims’

26. Sample numbers: 20 million simulated T(2003) day-streams per year
assume: very large future population
For 100,000 years
assume: quite long future
Total of: 2000 billion menacing d-streams
So: significant simulation menace (50%)
approx 2000 billion actual 2003 d-streams

27. BUT! S-simulations: how great a menace? programming time know-how
virtual lives in
VAST numbers
computational
power
inclination
BUT!
presupposes very
controversial theory of
mind

28. Q: How worrying is the computational simulation menace? It’s not!
Very!
classical
functionalism
materialism
non-reductive
functionalism
classical
dualism
Shoemaker
Lycan
Loar
Chalmers
Descartes
Smart/Place
Searle
Strawson
McGinn

29. Broadening ‘appeal’ of Sim. Arg.
Other sources
of menacing
simulations
H-SIMS
sims run on
brains

30. Neural interface technology

32. H-SIMS: high road brain-computer interface fully immersive VR
gene
manipulation
nano-
engineered
fully immersive VR
psychology
perception

33. H-SIMS: low road controlled hallucinations implant drug assisted
exploit known
brain potential
fully immersive VR

34. One scenario: VR in education
Imagine: a typical 23rd century history lesson
Topic: life as an ordinary 21st century person
Method: fully immersive virtual reality ‘trip’ to the past
Spend a few hours AS an ordinary 21st century person

35. H-sims: will the technologies ever be developed?
It is hard for us to envisage how (say) brain-machine interfaces of the kind required could be designed & implemented.
But: remember Arthur C. Clarke’s ‘Third Law’: ‘Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic’
Think: what would a 19th century person have made of modern computers, atomic weapons, genetic manipulation, etc.

36. H-sims technology: further reasons for ‘optimism’
Neuroscience: we still have much to learn
Research in nano-technology, programmable matter continues apace
Money no problem: entertainment industry
computer games bigger than movies
MMOG phenomenon: indicator of what’s to come?

37. ‘massive, multiplayer, online
MMOG
‘massive multiplayer
online gaming’
‘persistent world games’
Ultima Online
Everquest
Anarchy Online
…….
participants = 120,000 (simul)
notoriously addictive
MMPORG
‘massive, multiplayer, online
role-playing game

38. MMOG: screenshots

40. MMOG
MMPORG
$$$$
Big money in sim technology!

41. H-sims: relevant prediction
‘VR trips to the
past’
if possible …
VERY numerous

42. VR-vacations: sample numbers
Actual 2003 d-streams: 2 x 1012
Assume:
every sim-age person takes 1 trip to early 21st century
10,000 sim-age generations
average sim-age population = 10 billion
Yields: 1.0 x 1014 virtual streams
So: 1/50 chance of your life being real

43. Menacing Simulations: further possible source
MODAL REALISM
menacing S-sims
= infinite
menacing H-sims
= infinite
Lewis, Tegmark

44. ∞ ∞ real lives virtual lives 50% chance of virtuality MODAL REALISM
MANY WORLDS?

45. Where do we stand?
A. Humankind will have a long and successful future.
B. Technology will make realistic sims possible, and these will be created frequently, in varied forms.
tension
C. You and I exist in the early 21st century
tension
D. Modal Realism is true.

46. ‘A &B ‘C true’ true’ High probability More confident ‘These
experiences
occur in 2003’
‘A &B
true’ ‘C
true’
Less confident
Low probability

47. Pragmatic
Theology
Ethics
Sim Arg:
implications
Epistemology
Metaphysics

48. Scepticism: traditional response
‘Of course
this life is
real!’
COMBAT!
establish that
concern is
unwarranted

49. Sim Era Scepticism: menace of the virtual = very real
Assume: reality is largely as
our experience suggests
(physical law, history, etc.)
Take a few VR-trips: threat will feel real …
significant probability
that your life = virtual

50. Objection:
Sim-scepticism
= self-undermining
Sim threat
= not real

51. Recall the basic
line of reasoning
And see how it
defeats itself …

52. My life is
non-virtual
Simulation
Argument
My world has
properties F, G ..
High odds
that I am
living in a
simulation

53. ? My life is non-virtual Simulation Argument My world has
properties F, G
High odds
that I am
living in a
simulation ?

54. Steps to a vicious, epistemically unstable, loop:
Certain beliefs about the character of the world lead you to believe that it is likely that you are living in a simulation.
But: the latter belief undermines the former beliefs
If you believe you inhabit a sim, why believe your experience is a reliable guide to how things really are?
Your grounds for assigning a high probability to the sim hypothesis are no more

55. Loop concluded and relaunched …
So you no longer have reason to believe you are living in a simulation.
You conclude: things are much as they seem.
But: if things are much as they seem, there is a good chance that you are living in a simulation ….
And the loop repeats ….

56. One response: entrenchment
Anyone who initially assigns
high probability to sim
hypothesis is always returned
to their initial state
So: rejecting the Sim Arg and
‘returning to reality’ is
is not a stable option

57. A problematic
(& puzzling) symmetry
Rejecting Sim Arg
= not a stable option
Accepting Sim Arg
= not a stable option

58. Question: Maybe… Rejecting Sim Arg = not a stable option
Accepting Sim Arg
= not a stable option
Can the Sim Arg
leave one in an
epistemically stable
situation?
Maybe…

59. A suspect equation…. No Yes Traditional demon hypothesis Naturalistic
Simulation
Misrepresentation
Traditional
demon
hypothesis
Naturalistic
simulation
hypotheses No
Yes

60. Simulation Realism: variants
Full: simulation is perfect duplication of actual world
Partial: simulation is accurate in some respects
physics
biology
history
personalities

61. S-realism:
Simulations with high S-realism resemble the actual world in ways relevant to the assessment of the Simulation Hypothesis (i.e. that there are high odds that your life is virtual)
laws of nature, technological possibilities, social trends, etc.
Modest claim: at least 75% of current fictions (films, novels, computer games) have high S-realism
Modest prediction: at least 50% of future fictions will have high S-realism

62. Steps to an epistemically stable situation
My world is broadly as
it seems + low odds
that my life is virtual
80% chance
I am living in a
simulation
Sim
Arg
My world is broadly as it
seems + good chance
that my life is a simulation
Simulations with
high S-realism= 50%
40% chance
I am living in a
simulation
Steps to an epistemically stable situation

63. (a) the world is broadly as I believe it to be (physical laws, history, technological trends)
(b) the probability that I am living in a simulation is quite high
Claim:
These two beliefs are consistent, provided that under (a) you believe that most future simulations are likely to supply a broadly accurate picture of reality

64. Moving swiftly on …

65. Theology: Problem of Evil
distribution of ‘pointless’ suffering
real
virtual worlds / lives
most evil = directly due to humankind

66. Metaphysics: varieties of VR
H-sims v S-sims
Autonomous v. Programmed actions
Active v Passive
Others are real (active) or merely apparent.
Communal v. Individual
Original v Replacement
Psychology
Your own psychology, or another one

67. ‘The Matrix’ = active, communal, original ?
Active – Individual – Original Psy
Active – Individual – Replacement Psy
Active – Communal – Original Psy
Active – Communal – Replacement Psy
H or S
Passive – Individual – Original Psy
Passive – Individual – Replacement Psy
Passive – Communal – Original Psy
Passive – Communal – Replacement Psy
16 modes
‘The Matrix’ = active, communal, original ?

68. Simulation Scenarios as Metaphysical Hypotheses, not Sceptical Hypotheses (Chalmers)
If we were simulants, most of our beliefs about our world would still be true
But: our world would have a different nature than we commonly believe
e.g. physical things are constituted by computational processes
Some plausibility for COMMUNAL sims

69. Pragmatic Issues: Should I be Should I act depressed? differently?
My life is unusually interesting: does this increase
the odds?
My life is boring: does this reduce
the odds?

70. The price of fame: high sim odds

71. But my life is too dull …

73. ‘The Sims’ = bestselling computer game for the past three years
No life is too dull!

74. Simulation Ethics Creation Issues Maintenance Issues
Question: might ethical scruples diminish the menace posed by the Simulation Argument?

75. Deception Objection
Does the wrong
outweigh the gift
of existence?
Sim subjects are being deceived about their real condition. It’s wrong to deceive in this way.
H-sims, VR-vacations:
deception = temporary
& self-imposed!

76. Future generations will restrict sims to secure their own reality
Self-Interest Objection
Can’t guarantee
policy will be continued
Future generations will restrict sims to secure their own reality
Opposing forces: escapism,
entertainment industry
Realization: innocence
cannot be recaptured
implications
for us …

77. Sim innocence: can’t be regained, but can be simulated
popularity
(no. of simulations/visits)
2003
sim age
innocence
100,000 AD
transition

78. Concluding speculations: Might We Be In a Minority?
don’t
take sim threat seriously us
sum total of intelligent conscious beings

79. A further (final?) Copernican shift
virtual
real
sum total of conscious lives