1. CLIMATE ACTION PLANS: UTILITIES DISCUSSION California Higher Education Sustainability Conference Eric Eberhardt - UC Office of the President

2. Utility Discussion for CAPs  Utility Forecasting Overview  Power Content Forecasting and RPS  Energy Pricing Considerations  Third Party Power Providers - DA/CCA  Energy Efficiency Programs - UC/CSU Partnership 2

3. Utility Forecasting Overview 3

4. Power Content Forecasting and RPS  Current 33% RPS Requirement by 2020  Unknown future of 2050 RPS and milestone goals  CPUC GHG Calculator (E3 1 ) Emissions Factors  Utilities have ~2 year lag Climate Registry verified EF 2 4 Projected CO2 Intensity tonnes/MWh E3, GHG Calculator version 3c, worksheet tab “CO2 Allocations,” cells AH35 - AK44 PG&ESCESDG&ESMUDLADWP 20120.210.270.280.230.51 20130.20.27 0.220.49 20140.190.260.240.220.48 20150.180.250.230.210.47 20160.170.240.220.20.46 20170.160.230.210.190.44 20180.150.230.190.180.43 20190.140.220.180.170.42 20200.130.210.170.160.32 1 E3 GHG Calculator, https://www.ethree.com/public_projects/cpuc2.phphttps://www.ethree.com/public_projects/cpuc2.php 2 Natural Gas emission factors do not change significantly, using 0.00531 tonnes CO2/therm, per U.S. EIA Voluntary Reporting of GHG Program

5. Energy Pricing - Gas  Key Drivers in California  Pipeline Safety, Environmental, US/World Economy  How quickly will prices rise?  Large users typically procure commodity  Hedging positions vary dramatically  Utilities provide updates on T&D  Monitor pipeline upgrade proposals 5

6. Energy Pricing - Electricity  Key Drivers in California  Gas Prices, Allowance Prices, RPS Costs  Energy Info Administration Outlook 3 – 2013-2040  1.9-3.4% Annual (Newer, historically low)  CPUC GHG Calculator 3 (E3) – 2008-2020  3.5-6.3% Annual (Created for CA, older data)  Utilities have multiple rate changes per year  Typically provide updates but not long term forecasts 6 3 Model Run Summaries from UC Davis EE Center Report – The Future of Energy Prices in California, Johnathan Cook Ph.D., http://eec.ucdavis.edu/files/02-06-2014-The-Future-of-Electricity-Prices-in-California-Final-Draft-1.pdf

7. Third Party Electric Power Providers DA/CCA  Currently Direct Access (DA) participation is capped  Legislation required with limited political interest  Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) is active  Marin and Sonoma are live, many others looking  AB 2145 would impact new CCAs – require opt-in  Every CCA and their offerings are different  Provide alternative to IOU bundled service  Understand pricing, content and commitment 7

8. Energy Efficiency Programs UC/CSU Partnership  2015 a stand-alone program cycle – mirrors 2014  2016 projected to be start of 10 year rolling cycle  Opportunities for “major overhaul”  Carbon based criteria for projects  Flexibility to utilize non-CPUC funds  Whole building EM&V  Incentive structure will likely change 8