1. After 2020: Opportunities and Challenges for All Independent Energy Producers Annual Meeting September 26, 2013 Nancy E. Ryan Director of Policy and Strategy, E3

2. 2 California Policymakers are Starting to Look Beyond 2020 CPUC is interested in evaluating electricity sector GHG reduction options and costs in 2030 CARB 2013 Update to AB 32 Scoping Plan Progress on 2020 GHG goals Possibly a 2030 target Integrate air quality and climate policy CEC’s 2013 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) “Evaluation of electricity system needs in 2030” workshop & modeling California legislators: Proposed bill for 51% RPS by 2030 surfaced Quirk bill on Road to 2050

3. Science Paper on 2050 Pathways: Framework for Setting 2030 Goals 3

4. Low Carbon Path Beyond 2020 Source: “The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity,” Williams et al, Science (2012)

5. E3 Examining Potential Interim Targets and Pathways to Reach Them 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990199419982002200620102014201820222026203020342038204220462050 Million metric tonnes CO2e 2020 Goal 425 MMT 2050 Goal 85 MMT Business as usual projection Transportation Electricity Industry 2030 Straight Line Path 315 MMT Target Range 5

6. 6 Williams et al, 2012

7. Electrification & Energy Efficiency 7 Energy Efficiency Electrification 272 452 152 563 PV Roofs GWh 2010 Electric Demand 2050 Baseline Electric Demand Building EE Industrial Ag & Other EE Building Elect. Industrial Ag & Other Elect. PV Roofs 2050 Electric Demand net of EE/PV Transport EVs 2050 Decarb. Eelctric Demand Williams et al, 2012, SOM

8. 8 California is Clearly Heading Down the Renewable Electricity Pathway State law prohibits construction of new nuclear facilities until the federal government has designated a permanent nuclear waste repository San Onofre Generating Station has closed permanently Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has not developed as quickly as hoped No commercial projects in service Proposed projects and are struggling to make it to the finish line due to cost overruns, political opposition, low gas prices Should California invest in preserving other options?

9. Renewable Resource Costs Continue to Decline 9 Source: “Tracking the Sun VI” Barbose et al, LBNL, 2013

10. 10 Integration Challenges are Magnified Above 33% Higher amounts of solar leads to too much generation vs. too little demand in middle of day

11. 11 What does all of this mean for me?

12. Thank You! Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) 101 Montgomery Street, Suite 1600 San Francisco, CA 94104 Tel 415-391-5100 Web http://www.ethree.comhttp://www.ethree.com Nancy E. Ryan, Director of Policy and Strategy (nancy@ethree.com)@ethree.com