1. Regionalisation Volkmar Hartje Technical University of Berlin, Institute for Landscape and Environmental Planning, Berlin, Germany GLOWA-Elbe GLOWA Status Conference 19 May 2005 Cologne GLOWA ELBE PROJECT: REGIONALISATION

2. Regionalisation GLOWA ELBE PROJECT: REGIONALISATION PROJECTION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE TO THE RIVER BASIN SCALE Project Leader: Professor Dr. V. Hartje, TU Berlin

3. Regionalisation Overview I.Approach: regionalisation of socio-economic development in GLOWA Elbe II II. Application: Agricultural sector with results from GLOWA Elbe I III. Outlook

4. Regionalisation Integrative Methodological Approach 1 (B) Policy options Analyses of problems, conflicts, expressed needs, targets,... Participation Public Policy Agents Agencies NGO’s others Stakeholder acceptance YES NO Decision processes Further exploration 2 Determination of multiple criteria and indicators 3 Multidisciplinary impact analysis for each scenario 4 Evaluation of results: Benefit-cost analysis, Multi-criteria analysis and Equity analysis Derivation of scenarios for future development, considering: (A)External driving forces/ Boundary conditions

5. Regionalisation Context within GLOWA Elbe Project Project I: Integration and Coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA) Regional actors, decision bodies Frame of Development Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change Global Change Management level Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis Management- options Impact- analysis Evaluation Project IV: Conflict field Surface Water Quality Nutrient entry Cost-efficiency analysis Eco- hydrological Indicators Socioeconomic Indicators Project III: Conflict field Surface Water Availability Run-off regulation Multi-criteria analysis Eco- hydrological Indicators Socioeconomic Indicators Project advisory board

6. Regionalisation

7. I. Approach Regionalisation of socio-economic development in GLOWA Elbe II

8. Regionalisation GLOWA Elbe methodological approach Two stage regionalisation:  Model based assessment of effects of global change on a regional level using consistent scenarios of global change  Subsequent projection to dimensions of river basin and water users Modular concept:  Application of well established modelling approaches for policy analysis in specific sectors for integrated water resources assessment  New development of currently missing modules e.g. related to estimating water demand functions as required Primary integration:  Consistent typology of water users, nutrient emitters and hydrological response units  Consistent definition of spatial and temporal resolutions

9. Regionalisation Region Two-stage modular approach to regionalisation Global River Basin Economic & demographic development REGE WATERTECH Water technology development Water balance WBalMo Nutrients MONERIS Water infrastructure Technology Water demand IKARUS / KASIM Energy sectorAgricultural production RAUMIS Land use & population Land Use Scanner

10. Regionalisation River Basin Water balance WBalMo Nutrients MONERIS Example : Water demand Global Region Land Use Scanner Water technology Economic development Water infrastructure Technology Water demand Population & settlements Spatial claims population Economy & demographics REGE Spatial claims agriculture

11. Regionalisation GIS based primary integration: typology and topology Urban Systems Soils / Geology Landcover Hydrology Climate Hydrological response unit concept Water user concept

12. Regionalisation Principal functionality of the Land Use Scanner Local suitability Current land use Physical suitability Policy maps Distance relations Future land use Allocation module: Doubly constrained logit model &&& Global change scenarios Regional Claims

13. Regionalisation Water Demand: Urban water demand Types of household water demand Techno- logical factors Impact of technological change on household water demand between t 0 and t 1 (WATER- INFRASTRUCTURE) Database: micro household survey on water demand in t 0 Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type k … Water demand Type 1 Water demand Type 2 Water demand Type 3 … Water demand Type k Household and population factors Population and household structure in a city/district at time t 1 (REGE) Impact factors Impact factors of water demand, t 0 Water demand of the city or the district in t 1

14. Regionalisation Water supply infrastructure Freistaat Sachsen Statusbericht Abwasser 2002 Dienstbezirk StUFA Chemnitz Abwasserbeseitigungspflichtige Zweckverbände und Gemeinden/ Kommunale Kläranlagen Schematische Darstellung. Datenbestand 2001 Inbetriebnahme, letzte Rekonstruktion oder Erweiterung Bis ab 1990 1991 Größenklassen (nach Einwohnerwerten) Mechanische Reinigung Mechanisch-biologische Reinigung Mechanisch-biologische Reinigung mit N- Eliminierung *) Mechanisch-biologische Reinigung mit P- Eliminierung Mechanisch-biologische Reinigung mit N *) - und P-Eliminierung *) Größenklassen bis 10.000 Einwohnerwerte ggf. nur Ammoniumsticksotff-Reduzierung 50 bis < 1000 1000 bis 5000 > 5000 bis 10.000 >10.000 bis 100.000 > 100.000

15. Regionalisation II. Application Agricultural sector with results from GLOWA Elbe I Regionalisation

16. Example: Agricultural sector Global Region River Basin Temperature & precipitation Land use Nutrient overload Agricultural markets & trade policy WATSIM Price scenarios Output relations Agricultural production RAUMIS Yield variation ECHAM4/ OPYC3 STAR Climate Land Use Scanner Land use Land share, crop rotation & Nutrient balances Other land claims Water balance SWIM Nutrients MONERIS Regionalisation

17. Climate: change in precipitation Changes in precipitation: comparing 2046/2055 to 1951/2000 Difference of annual sum [mm] Regionalisation

18. Climate induced change of yield potential Winter wheat On average = - 13 % Silage maize On average = + 9 % Regionalisation

19. Economic change: Scenario for the agricultural sector World market price for grain Policy option: Partial liberalisation of EU Common Agricultural Policy Complete decoupling of direct payments No production obligations (Cross-Compliance) No backing of prices Regionalisation

20. Implications for agricultural land use Land set-aside Partial Liberalisation 2020 % of agricultural area less than 5 5 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 40 more than 40 H. Gömann, C. Julius und P. Kreins; RAUMIS 8/2003 Regionalisation

21. Nutrient Balance Surplus Partial Liberalisation 2020 Changes in Nitrogen Balance kg N / hectare of agricultural land < - 10 > - 10 up to - 8 > - 8 up to - 6 > - 6 up to - 4 < - 4 Regionalisation

22. III. Outlook

23. Regionalisation GLOWA Elbe Regionalisation Approach: Expected Output Quantitative rationing / Measures for reduction of emissions Alternative options for action Water use Nutrient emissions Scenarios of socio-economic development (water demand / emissions) Past Future Water supply Stochastics + Scenarios of change Climate Land use

24. Regionalisation Favourable Policy Context: Water Framework Directive 1.The EU Water Framework Directive requires River Basin Management Plans and Operational Programs of Measure on a river basin level to be operational by 2009. 2.As a basis, long term forecasts of demand and supply for water in the river basin have to be taken into account. 3. There is demand for research results from the users on a river basin level. 4. The methodology is further refined by the WATECO group as part of the common implementation strategy.

25. Regionalisation Expected research contributions 1.Methodology to prepare scenarios 2.Links in modular model structure 3.Link administrative units to scale of water infrastructure 4.Modelling industrial and residential water demand 5.Generate water typology

26. Regionalisation Thank You For Your Attention! WWW.GLOWA-Elbe.de