Flip a coin. Event: A, B A: One head at least B: Both heads or tails Question: P(B|A)? P(h|D)=P(h)*P(D|h)/P(D) P(h|D) = P(hD) / P(D) P(hD)=P(h)*P(D|h)
He didn’t say “hi” when passing by. Compare P(h1|D) and P(h2|D) to reach the most likely assumption. P(h2|D)=P(h2)*P(D|h2)/P(D) P(h1|D)=P(h1)*P(D|h1)/P(D) P(Bi|A) ∝ P(Bi) * P(A|Bi) D Didn’t say “hi” h1 Didn’t see me h2 Didn’t like me P(hi|D) ∝ P(hi) * P(D|hi)
Evidence from behavioral research Evidence from neural science ERP and fMRI (Murray, et al, 2002): Dorsal regions provide input to lateral occipital complex (LOC), where signatures of illusory contour completion first appear, then followed by activity in V1/V2. MEG and fMRI (Bar et al, 2006): Low spatial frequency specific activity appeared in left orbitofrontal cortex 50 ms earlier than in fusiform gyrus of temporal cortex.