1. Lesson 2 ODOT Useful Information and Uncertainty “[I]t is possible to improve on common sense” by methodically focusing on the package of premises and results, by calculating with beliefs. Dennis V. Lindley

2. Useful Information and Uncertainty Describe the relationship of useful information to the decision at hand Identify the relationship between Sierra Club v Marsh and useful information Identify the method of managing uncertainty that improves on common sense Compare the knowledge base of experts and collaborative enterprises

3. Decision Makers are Generally Overwhelmed by Data but Underwhelmed by its’ Utility ….. DATA DUMPS are not analyses

4. Looking for Guidance? Subject Matter Experts, Stakeholders Local Knowledge, Experiences and Skills + OJT Laws, Regulations, Executive Orders Guidance and Best Practices Courts

5. Useful Information What makes Information Useful ?

6. Useful Information So what? The two-part analysis tells us about resource responses to the action, and what that means to resource sustainability. The “so what?” part matters.

7. Useful Information Consider: What decision needs to be made? By whom and with whose input? What actions, secondary actions, adjustments, and feedbacks (reactions) will be triggered by implementing the decision

8. Useful Information Consider: What resources (or societal values) will be affected? Is this the last meaningful opportunity to consider affects to specific resources?

9. Useful Information Consider: Level of certainty? Importance of unknowns? Any catastrophic hazards that warrant consideration regardless of probability?

10. Useful Information Consider: Attributes of selected resources Surrogates or indicators of values Efficiency (cost and time)

11. Useful Information Consider: Relevance to the decision at hand? Relevance appreciated by decision- maker and public(s)?

12. Efficient Decision Support for Better Decisions Society and communities have values Values are resources (environmental quality) Resources have attributes Resource attributes are comprised of patterns and processes Generally, attributes of resources can be measured

13. Efficient Decision Support for Better Decisions Useful Information support decisions and must be: Relevant to the decision and decision makers Relevance understood and appreciated

14. Effective Decision Support for Better Decisions Useful information predicts how the action will affect the sustainability of selected resources Sustainability can be characterized by natural processes, administrative rule, or community/social construct

15. Efficient Decision Support for Better Decisions Model REC and action … are a consistent approach to identifying the drivers underlying the condition and trends of affected resources and are applicable across all regulatory frameworks

16. Efficient Decision Support for Better Decisions Model REC and Action Characterize Sustainability & Regulatory Thresholds by Natural Processes or Phenomena Regulatory Rulemaking, or Societal or Community Construct Assume that when a resource or system exceeds the threshold, it changes irreversibly. This allows us to simplify the assessment to predict sustainability (or, resilience).

17. The Courts on Useful Information Read: Sierra Club v Marsh How many questions? What are they? How are the questions related to the generation of useful information? BONUS - What is the name of the judge who wrote the opinion? What does he do now?

18. Sears Island

19. More on Useful Information from the Courts Information about improbable but potentially catastrophic events can be useful (SLO MoMs FP v NRC) On the other hand, still okay not to assess psychological/emotional factors like “fear”* *take care to avoid double standards, though!

20. More on Useful Information from the Courts 1.What is the geographic area affected by the project? 2.What are the resources affected by the project? 3.What are the other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable actions that have impacted these resources? 4.What were those impacts? 5.What is the overall impact on these various resources from the accumulation of the actions?

21. More on Useful Information from the Courts “… useful to the decisionmaker in deciding whether, or how, to alter the program to lessen cumulative impacts.” Carmel-by-the-Sea v. U.S. DOT, 123 F.3d 1142, 1160 (9th Cir 1997)

22. Laws and Regulations on Useful Information Examples Civil Rights Act Clean Water Act 404(b)(1) guidelines EO’s (EJ, migratory birds, prime ag land)

23. EPA on Useful Information Is the resource especially vulnerable to incremental effects? Is the proposed action one of several similar actions in the same geographic area? Would other activities in the area have similar effects on the resource? Could these effects have been historically significant for this resource? Have other analyses in the area identified a cumulative effects concern?

24. Useful Information Action-Focused Best Practices Identify the Basics Approach Effort Required Format How will Solution be Used?

25. Useful Information Action-Focused Best Practices Area’s Directions and Goals Map and overlay resources and area of direct and indirect impacts Combination of techniques - Census data, Journey to work, Origin and destination surveys, Travel demand model output Consider - Political geographic boundaries, Commute-shed boundaries, Growth boundaries and service limits, Watershed and habitat boundaries

26. Useful Information Action-Focused Best Practices Inventory Notable Features Use LRTPs, Conservation plans, etc., as source of information per SAFETEA-LU Section 6001 Ecosystems, Socio-economics, Community cohesion and facilities, Historical and archeological, other valued features Terminology

27. Useful Information Action-Focused Best Practices Identify Impact-Causing Activities of the Proposed Action and Alternatives Deconstruct alternative, REC Exposure Address both (1) Encroachment-Alteration and (2) Induced Growth and Related effects

28. Useful Information Action-Focused Best Practices Identify Potentially Significant Indirect Effects for Analysis Direct & Indirect Advice … use common sense in interpreting what is meant by “significant’ here ID exposure-response profiles that conflict with goals and notable features Establish which effects merit further analysis

29. Useful Information Resource-Focused Best Practices Identify the significant cumulative effects associated with the proposed action and define the assessment goals Emphasis added PLEASE use common sense when interpreting the use of “significant”

30. Useful Information Resource-Focused Best Practices Establish the geographic scope for the analysis From resources’ perspective Unlikely to be the same as is established for the action-focused part of the two-part question

31. Useful Information Resource-Focused Best Practices Establish the time frame for analysis From resources’ perspective Unlikely to be the same as is established for the action-focused part of the two-part question

32. Useful Information Resource-Focused Best Practices Identify Other Actions Affecting the REC of Concern Stressors past, present, and future Analytically distinct from action-focused RFFA

33. Think Above Your Pay Grade Project DOA? Which Alternative? Allocate Mitigation? Enhance Knowledge?

34. Useful Information If it is not in the record, it does not exist If it is in the record and essential to the analyses, but not referenced in the public document, it does not exist

35. Useful Information The Collaborative Enterprise Subject Matter Experts working with others identify and communicate information useful to the decision maker and public(s) Narrative sequence describes analytic process and discusses what we know, what we don’t know, and the relative importance of what we don’t know.

36. Uncertainty The Most Useful Information Monitor Verify assumptions and predictions Inform future actions Track transportation related effects Adaptive Management Test hypotheses Focus on accuracy, not precision Correct or acknowledge errors Build Trust and Confidence

37. Uncertainty The Most Useful Information Spurious Certitude = False Confidence = Lie Reduce Uncertainty Do Not Avoid, Deny, or Suppress! Use Principles of Coherence (a.k.a. contingency)

38. Uncertainty The Most Useful Information Degrees of Uncertainty Risk - know possible outcomes and likelihoods Pure Uncertainty - know possible outcomes, but not likelihoods Ignorance or Absolute Uncertainty - lack knowledge of both possible outcomes and of likelihoods

39. Uncertainty The Most Useful Information Sources of Uncertainty Variability (and context) Limits to Knowledge Base Incomplete or Missing Information Complex Relationships

40. Uncertainty The Most Useful Information Uncertainty Is inherent in all solutions Does not excuse failure to evaluate Is information Must be Explained in Administrative Record

41. Uncertainty The Most Useful Information Probability estimates include the predictor’s base of knowledge pr(E|Κ) is commonly shown as pr(E) Probability of event E given the implicit base of knowledge K

42. Uncertainty The Most Useful Information Reducing Uncertainty Coherence (or, contingency) Study Monitoring

43. Uncertainty The Most Useful Information Discuss Uncertainty Range or Confidence of Solution Knowledge Base Identify Contradictory Information and Explain Why it is Discounted

44. Uncertainty The Most Useful Information Utilize Subject Matter Experts and Collaborative Enterprise to Identify and Minimize Unacceptable Uncertainties

45. Uncertainty The Most Useful Information Uncertainty and the Cookie Monster CCC from ?

46. Useful Information and Uncertainty Describe the relationship of useful information to the decision at hand Identify the relationship between Sierra Club v Marsh and useful information Identify the method of managing uncertainty that improves on common sense Compare the knowledge base of experts and collaborative enterprises

47. Useful Information and Uncertainty Useful information should be: A. Relevant to the decision at hand B. Technical and loaded with jargon C. Fun facts about the project area

48. Useful Information and Uncertainty What should you do if you answer “no” to any of part of the Sierra Club v. Marsh test? A.Send a jeopardy alert to the Division Administrator B.Document the answer and go to the next REC C.Commit to recognizing the REC in the PS&E

49. Useful Information and Uncertainty Ensuring that statements and assumptions use coherence principles ____________. A. Improves on common sense B. Works best with subject matter experts C. Works even better in a collaborative enterprise D. Impedes efforts to make project prioritization more rational

50. Useful Information and Uncertainty The knowledge base underlying substantive statements and assumptions should be explicitly described in Environmental Impact Analyses. True or False?