1. The Evolution of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
Ao Univ. Prof. Dr. Günther Ossimitz
University of Klagenfurt, Austria
The Evolution of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
100th Birthday Anniversary of Ludwig von Bertalanffy
Technical University of Vienna, 2. Nov. 2001

2. My Habilitation work: Development of Systems Thinking
Main issues:
- How can students learn Systems Thinking (ST)?
- How can System Dynamics modelling help to develop ST
- How can ST abilities be empirically measured?
Ch 1: Approaches towards Systems Thinking in the Literature
Ch 2: What is Systems Thinking? - a Definition
Ch 3: Systems Thinking / System Dynamics in Math Education
Ch 4: Empirical Studies about the Development of Systems Thinking
Ch 5: The Study: „Development of Systems Thinking“
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

3. Some Systems Thinking Approaches
Qualitative Approaches:
Frederic Vester (Biocybernetics)
Systemic Management: e.g. Peter Gomez/ Gilbert Probst
Peter Senge: „The Fifth Discipline“ ST and Organizational Learning
Cognitive Psychology - Dietrich Dörner: „The Logic of Failure“
System Dynamics-Approach (quantitative)
Jay Forrester (MIT) introduces SD at about 1960
Barry Richmond sells SD Software STELLA under „systems thinking“
Each of these approaches is connected with Education!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

4. Systems Thinking Approaches - Overview
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

5. What is Systems Thinking?
Literature: ST is very fundamental and important
e.g. George Klir: Facets of Systems Science (1991, p19):
"Systems movement emerged from three principal roots: mathematics, computer technology and a host of ideas that are well captured by the general term systems thinking."
This is the only appearance of the term "systems thinking" in Klir's great book!
The same applies to a number of other important works of systems literature.
Almost no serious definition of ST in systems literature!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

6. My Definition of “Systems Thinking“
Four interelated dimensions:
Dynamical Dim. - Thinking in dynamical processes: beyond snapshot-thinking; understanding stocks vs. flows, delays, oscillations...
Model Dim. - Thinking in Models /Awareness of Systems: modeling assumptions, model-reality; qualitative vs. quantitative models
Feedback Dim. - Thinking in loops and networks: interrelated structures, indirect effects, feedback loops, networks of interrelations
Pragmatical Dim. - Steering of Systems: finding the "leverage point", counterintuitive behavior, proper intensity and timing of actions.
My Definition integrates different views of Systems Thinking!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

7. Dynamical Thinking: Discerning stocks and flows
Arrivals and Departures in a Hotel: Dec 18 - Jan 10
Arr
Dep
When was the number of Hotel guests a maximum? Give your answer just by a quick glimpse at the diagram without any tedious calculations!
Intersection: Dec 27-Dec 28
Correct: < 20%
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

8. Thinking in Models: Heroin Market 1
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

9. Price Elasticity of Heroin
10 kg Heroin available: 1000 ATS/kg: 10 Mio S Revenue
9 kg Heroin available: 2000 ATS/kg: 18 Mio S Revenue !
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

10. Thinking in Models: Heroin Market 2
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

11. Lessons from the Heroin Models:
Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD`s) are useful tools!
CLD‘s help to discuss a situation. Different viewpoints can be clarified and checked more easily.
The „same“ situation can be modeled in different ways.
CLD‘s allow a reflection of model assumptions.
Small differences in a model might have serious consequences.
What appears to be the solution at first sight, might (via feedback) make the problem even more severe!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

12. Feedback Thought: The Arms Race (Peter Senge: The Fifth Discipline)+
Armation A +
A feels endagered
B feels endangered +
Armation B +
Escalating ("positive") feedback loop
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

13. The result of the Arms Race
Total Amount of Armation in Arms race
Time (years)
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

14. George Richardson: Two threads of Feedback Thought
Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory (p. 93)
George Richardson: Two threads of Feedback Thought
- Servomechanisms Thread
- Cybernetics Thread
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

15. George Richardson's Message:
Feedback is a common fundamental idea in all systems approaches
The feedback structure is often hidden in peculiar notations
Explicit counsciousness of feedback in the 20th century
Many roots of feedback thinking:
Biology-math. Models (Verhulst, Lotka, Volterra)
Econometrics (Tinbergen, Samuelson, Hicks)
Engineering (Watt, Maxwell, Lyapunov)
Social Sciences (Hume, Smith, Ricardo, Hegel, Marx, Bateson, Keynes, Lewin)
Biology-Homeostasis (Hippocrates, Cannon, Rosenblueth)
Logic (Epimenides, Boole, Cantor, Russell, Whitehead, Carnap, Goedel)
Two main Feedback Threads in the 20th Century
Cybernetics Thread (Ludwig von Bertalanffy et al)
Servomechanisms Thread
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

16. The Cybernetics Thread
Feedback was seen as an influence from output back to input.
Feedback concept just for negative loops, no escalating loops
Feedback is seen as homeostasis and control
stability and instability of negative feedback systems
Feedback analyses are usually verbal rather than mathematical or pictorial
Feedback was associated with information transmittion, communication networks, information theory
background idea: the ceration of intelligent machines
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

17. The Servomechanism Thread
Formal dynamic feedback models employed
Basic idea: Behavior depends upon feedback structure
Feedback loops are seen as intrinsic part of real system
positive and negative loops were present
counterintuitive behavior of systems: well-intented policies lead to disaster
Policy Analysis is an important aspect of practical systems analysis
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

18. Ludwig von Bertalanffy on Systems Thinking
LvB did great work in integrating different Systems approaches (Biology, Chemistry, Psychology, Cybernetics, Social Sciences) into a General Systems Theory (GST)
GST was basically founded with mathematical concepts (differential equations, functions, stability)
Feedback concept is only implicit in GST - lack of feedback notation
Advances in Systems Thinking beyond GST are possible with new tools for diagramming/sketching feedback structures
Systems Thinking needs systemic means of communcation (e.g. mind maps, CLD`s, stock-flow-diagrams)!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

19. My conclusions concerning Systems Thinking
Systems thinking is like a tree: many roots and many branches
Feedback is a core concept of systems thinking. Others are:
thinking in processes, thinking in models, steering systems
Systems thinking abilities are darely needed, yet, hardly developed, even among higly educated persons!
Systemic diagrams are crucial for systems thinking / communication
Causal Loop Diagrams are easy to learn and very flexible systems diagramming tools
Systems thinking should be a guiding idea for any education at any age!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

20. How to contact me: http://go.just.to/go Homepage G. Ossimitz
Papers (incl. this lecture)
System Dynamics / Systems Thinking Mega Link List
alternativ:
mail:
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

21. Richmond: „Systems Thinking is System Dynamics with an Aura“
Systems Thinking und System Dynamics: Die Sichtweisen von Forrester und Richmond
Richmond: „Systems Thinking is
System Dynamics with an Aura“
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

22. Richmond (1991): What is Systems Thinking?
Ossimitz (1991):
Vier Stufen systemdynamischen
Darstellens und Modellierens
Systems Thinking Activities <=>
systemische Darstellungsformen
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

23. Testaufgabe "Staatsverschuldung vs. Budgetdefizit"
In Fantasien nennt man den Betrag, um den die Staatsausgaben in einem Jahr höher sind als die Staatseinnahmen, "öffentliches Budgetdefizit". Im Jahr 1998 betrug das öffentliche Budgetdefizit in Fantasien 60 Mrd. Taler, Ein Jahr später lag es bei 40 Mrd. Taler. Kreuzen Sie an, welche der folgenden Aussagen richtig bzw. falsch bzw. nicht beantwortbar sind!
Klgft:
63%
Im Jahr 1999 wurden 20 Mrd. Taler Schulden zurückbezahlt
Der Finanzminister konnte die Staatsschulden von 1998 auf 1999 um ein Drittel senken
30%
Wenn es gelingt, das Budgetdefizit auf 0 zu senken (ausgeglichen zu budgetieren), dann hat Fantasien keine Schulden mehr.
62%
Die Schulden sind sowohl 1998 als auch 1999 gewachsen.
42%
Wenn es gelingt, das Budgetdefizit auf 0 zu senken, dann hat Fantasien seinen höchsten Schuldenstand erreicht.
56%
Ein geringeres Budgetdefizit bedeutet eine geringere Staatsverschuldung.
41%
Klagenfurt: n=104 (BWL)
Graz: n=25 (USW)
Wien: n= 25 (WU,TU, Uni)
Diese Performance hätte man auch durch Münzwurf erreicht!
Graz: µ=0,76
Wien: µ=0,8
Graz: µ=0,44
Wien: µ=0,52
Graz: µ=0,16
Wien: µ=0,28
Graz: µ=0,4
Wien: µ=0,56
Graz: µ=0,64
Wien: µ=0,72
Graz: µ=0,32
Wien: µ=0,68

24. Literatur
Dietrich Dörner (1989): Die Logik des Misslingens. Strategisches Denken in komplexen Situationen. Reinbek: Rowohlt
Gomez/Probst (1987): Vernetztes Denken im Management. Die Orientierung 89. Bern: Schweizerische Volksbank
Günther Ossimitz (2000): Entwicklung systemischen Denkens. München: Profil
George Richardson (1991): Feedback thought. Reading: Pegasus Communications
Peter Senge (1990): Die fünfte Disziplin. Stuttgart: Klett-Cotta
John Sterman (2000): Business Dynamics. Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston: McGrawHill-Irwin
Frederic Vester (1999): Die Kunst, vernetzt zu denken. Stuttgart: DVA
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century