1. Chairman of the Iraqi Turkmen Human Rights Research Foundation
“Human Rights Situation in the North of Iraq in the Areas where the Kurdish Authority Exist”
Lecture given to Dutch University students who study democratization in Kurdish region, in the department of political Science, the University of Amsterdam
11 January 2010
By Dr. Sheth Jerjis
Chairman of the Iraqi Turkmen Human Rights Research Foundation
Kan. Pelsstraat 56
6525VA Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M

2. Contents Definitions Iraqi communities in the region
Figures & analysis of population statistics of the region and of Kerkuk province
Analysis of annual increase in population statistics
Historical regions of non-ruling communities
Population number of religious communities
Population statistics of Turkmen
Number of Kurdish population in Iraq

3. Calculated number of Kurdish population
Organization and political rights of non-ruling communities
Turkmen and administration
Turkmen in so-called disputed regions
Non-ruling communities under Saddam and now
Differences bet. and treatment of non-ruling communities
Non-ruling communities and elections in the north
Future scenarios, the best and the worst

4. Maps Concerned region Three ethnic vertical zones
Ethnic distribution of non-ruling communities
Boundaries of Kurdish expansion
Boundaries of Kurdish region according to the Kurdish Regional Government
Satellite maps of Kerkuk city - map of 2002 compared with map of 2007
Satellite map of Kerkuk city - Building area after the fall of Ba’ath regime

5. Definitions
The term ‘Non-ruling community’ has been used instead of the term ‘Minority’
The term ‘Kurdish region’ has been used for Duhok, Erbil and Sulaymaniya provinces with the Safe Haven boundaries
The term ‘Concerned Region’ has been used for the region in question which include seven provinces

6. Map of Concerned Region [Enlarge]
Northern Provinces
Erbil
Duhok
Nineveh
Sulaymaniya
Kerkuk
Middel Provincies
Salah al-Din
Diyala

7. Ethnic & Religious Communities in North of Iraq
Almost all the ethnic and religious groups of Iraq are found in the region
Ethnic communities
Arabs
Kurds
Turkmen
Chaldea-Assyrians are ethno-religious community
Religious communities
Sunni
Shea
Yazidis
Other Shea Groups: Shabaks, Kakais, Sarilya and Bacalan

8. Table 1, Population of Concerned Provinces
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
Province
Census 1987
Census
1997
2003†[1]
2004 MoP [2]
2005 by No. of voters††
2007 MoP [3]
End 2008, MoT? ††† [4]
2009 by P. Eq. ††††
Nineveh
1,479,430
2,042,852
2,473,727
2,554,270
2,583,425
2,811,000
2,860,655
2,632,727
Salah al-Din
726,138
 904,432
1,077,785
1,119,369
1,085,783
1,350,000
1,182,126
1,292,202
Diyala
961,073
 1,135,223
1,373,862
1,418,455
1,360,765
1,561,000
1,299,267
1,710,282
Kerkuk
601,219
 753,171
839,121
854,470
1,544,809
902,000
1,169,445
1,069,902
Sulaymaniya
951,723
 1,362,739
2,159,803
1,715,000
1,849,589
1,893,000
1,597,134
1,693,643
Erbil
770,439
 1,095,992
1,845,166
1,392,000
1,673,127
1,542,000
1,438,155
1,371,038
Duhok
293,304
 402,970
616,609
472,000
882,546
505,000
916,140
521,950
Total
5,783,326
 7,697,379
10,386,073
9,525,564
10,980,044
10,564,000
10,462,922
10,291,744
MoP= Ministry of Planning MoT = Ministry of Trade † = By UN & Mop & MoT
†† = According to UNICEF the voters are 52% of the Iraqi Population ††† = Used during provincial elections January 2009 †††† = P. Eq. is population Equation

9. Census 1987
was the last official census organized by the Iraqi government for all 18 governorates
The population of the Kurdish region accounted for 12% of total Iraqi population
Census 1997 [5]
Organized by UN
Covered only 15/18 governorates
Figures for the Kurdish region was given by Kurdish political parties

10. Table 1 Statistics of 2003 (Column 1)
Statistics were collected prior to the fall of Ba’ath regime on
Under the supervision of the United Nations, data were collected from the Iraqi government and the Kurdish parties in the Safe Haven
Both the Ministry of Planning & Ministry of Trade participated in collecting the statistics for 15 of the governorates
Statistics where subsequently used in the ‘oil for food programme’

11. After the fall of Ba’ath regime, almost no population statistics have been published by the Iraqi Ministry of Trade
Iraqi minister of planning is of Kurdish origin

12. Population estimates based on voters numbers (Column 3)
Table 1
Population estimates based on voters numbers (Column 3)
Estimate calculated by number of voters in the Iraqi general election, December 2005, for example:
There was officially voters in the Kerkuk province
Which make 52% of the total population according to UNICEF, accordingly
The population = x 100 / 52 = 1,544,809
Registered voters list’s are compiled by The Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq based on Ration Cards given by the province’s authorities

13. Table 1
Population estimates in 2009 (Column 6) based on Geometric method for computing population growth rate:
The population of a specific province in 2009 can be calculated and estimated based on previous censuses. Using statistics from the previous census (organized by the Iraqi government in 1987), and applying the geometric method of ‘computing the trend’ of Population: P1 = Po (1+gr)n
P1 = Population of a province in 2009
Po = Population a province in 1987
GR = Growth Rate
GR in Iraq according to UNICEF was 3% until 1990 and 2,6% from 1990 to 2007
N = Number of Years

14. The population of the Province of Kerkuk is
Table 1
The UN published figures in 2003 (column 1) for the population in Kurdish region was greatly large, which increased the percentage of Kurds only in the Kurdish region to 17%.
This abnormal figures of UN had increased the share of Kurdish region from the Iraqi budget from 13% to 17% after the fall of Saddam regime
The population of the Province of Kerkuk is
abnormally low in figures published by the Iraqi Ministry of Planning
This is despite significant Kurdish resettlement in the province
In contrary to the figures of population registration office of Kerkuk province (Table 2)

15. Table 1
Including Iraqis living in the Diaspora, the total population for all 7 provinces should equate to roughly 10,291,744 in 2009 (column 6). On the contrary, the total population for all 7 provinces, excluding Iraqis living in the Diaspora, is larger in 4 earlier estimates (column 1, 3, 4, 5)

16. Table 1
Based on the number of voters in the Iraqi General Elections of December 2005, (column 3) the population estimates of the;
Kerkuk province were greatly exaggerated
Kurdish region are the highest of any estimations made including the estimation from the MoP of 2007 (column 4)
Non-Kurdish provinces were convergent in regard to Nineveh and lower in regard to Salah al-Din and Diyala provinces compared with statistics of 2004 of Ministry of Planning (column 2)
Total population of the seven governorates is estimated to be around 10,291,744 in 2009 (column 6). This figure is smaller than the results of all the previous censuses and estimations, which were conducted during earlier dates.

17. Table 2, Population No. of Kerkuk province [6]
Census or estimations
Population number
Estimate 1921
92,000
Census 1935
223,634
Census 1947
285,900
Census 1957
388,912
Census 1967
478,098
Census 1977
495,400
Census 1987
601,219
Census 1997
771,800
Ration Card in mid-2005
1,047,875
Ration Card in 2006
1,098,061
Identity Card 4/2007
1,353,700
Identity Card 10/2007 [7]
1,368,860
Identity Card 2008
1,464,372
Voters number 2005
1,544,809

18. The three estimations based on number of identity cards issued
Table 2
The two estimations made on the size of the population in Kerkuk, which were based on the number of Ration Cards issued in 2005 and 2006
Are figures from the Iraqi Ministry of Trade
Show a considerable increases in the population size
The three estimations based on number of identity cards issued
Are figures from the Kerkuk Population Registrations Directorate, which is administered by the Kurds
They show large increases in the population size
The calculated population of Kerkuk province based on the number of voters in the Iraqi General Election of December 2005, which was about 800,000, is larger than the figures produced in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 by both the Ministry of Trade and the Registration Directorate

19. Table 3, Evaluation of Annual Increase
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Regions
1987 – 1997
1997 – 2003 UN
MoP & MoT
1997 – 2007 ministry of planning
1997 – 2005 calculated by voters list
Shea†
3.4%
3.2%
3.5% 4%
Sunni††
3.6%
3.3%
3.8%
Kerkuk
2.5%
1.9% 2%
13.1%
Kurdish†
4.2%
10.3%
6.7%
Total
4.1%
4.6%
† = Shea region includes the 9 southern provinces
† † = Sunni region includes the five provinces where the Sunnis are the majority
† † † = Kurdish region is the KRG three provinces

20. Table 3
This table indicates the population growth annually. The growth is expressed in percentages. Below is an example of how these are calculated.
A figure for the Census in 1997 – A figure for the Census in 1987 = population increase in 10 years
Population increase x 100 / Figure of census 1987 = percentage of increase
Percentage of increase / number of years bet. 2 censuses or estimations = Percentage of annual increase

21. Table 3
Census 1987 and 1997 (column 1)
The growth in population of both the Shea and Sunni regions during this 10 year period, are relatively comparable to both one another and to the regional average
Population of Kurdish region increased 0.7% above the average despite the fact that:
The large number of Anfal victims, which the western library puts it into 200,000.
Tens of thousands of Kurds have fled Iraq and established in Europe, in order to:
Improve their economical status
Escape
The economical embargo in Iraq
The civil war between two Kurdish parties

22. Table 3
More than 20 thousand victims of the civil war between the two main Kurdish parties abroad
The Kerkuk province has the lowest rate of growth. This can be attributed to several factors including;
forced deportation,
fleeing of non –Arabic individuals

23. Census 1997 and estimation of 2003 by UN (column 2)
Table 3
Census 1997 and estimation of 2003 by UN (column 2)
Population size of both the Shia and Sunni regions grew at slightly below average rate
The figures estimated that the Kerkuk population had further decreased, despite the fact it was a quiet period of deportation.
Population of Kurdish region
Hugely enlarged
Equal three fold of increase in Sunni and Shea regions
The abnormal increase in population of Kurdish region between the censuses of 1997 and the estimations of the UN of 2003, can not be attributed to the influence of any contributing factor or event.

24. Table 3
Census 1997 and calculation of population in 2005 by voters numbers (column 4)
Slightly increase in Shea and Sunni regions.
Population of Kurdish region increased more than one and half fold as much as of Shia and Sunni regions
Kerkuk population hugely increased, which clearly demonstrates the demographical change in the province
The increases in population figures of all regions during this period indicates that voters registration lists were generally exaggerated

25. Three zones in the North [Enlarge] Other groups in Kurdish region
Non-ruling communities in Kurdish region

26. According to the nature of population, North of Iraq can be divided in to three vertical Zones,
Eastern Zone which is
KRG region
Mainly Kurdish
Middle Zone
Non-ruling community’s zone
Highly mixed
Cities of non-ruling communities: Sinjar – Rashidiya -Telafer – Telkeyf – Hamdaniya – Shaykhan Eski Kelek – Erbil – Kus Tepe – Altun Kopru – Kerkuk – Daquq – Tuz Khurmatu – Kifri – Kara Tepe – Mendeli – Kiz Rabat – Khanaqin - Badra

27. Non-Kurdish communities in Kurdish region
Western Zone
Mainly Arabic
Cities: Mosul – Shirgat – Beiji – Tikrit - Samarra
Non-Kurdish communities in Kurdish region
Duhok Province
Yazidi, Chaldea-Assyrians and Shabaks
Erbil Province
Turkmen in Erbil city
Chaldea-Assyrians
Ain Kawa region
Kush Tepe sub-district
Sulaymaniya Province
Turkmen and Arabs in Kifri

28. Map of Ethnic Distribution [Enlarge]

29. Historical Regions of non-ruling communities
Subdivision Shea groups
The Shabaks are found in many villages in west, north and east of Mosul province, for example, Baashiqa, Wardak, Toprak Ziyaret, Telafer....
The Bajalan are also present in many Shabak villages in the east of Mosul, for example, Yarimca, Dilyara, Orta Kharab...
The Kakais or Sariliye are found
In several villages on the banks of the Great Zab
Telafer
South of Kerkuk, mainly Daquq region

30. Yazidi regions Mosul Province
Sinjar and Shaykhan districts are well known Yazidis Districts located in the west and east of the province
In different sub-districts and villages of Nineveh plain with Chaldea-Assyrians and Shabaks
Duhok Province, mainly in the following regions
Zakho
Summel
Baadra

31. Chaldea-Assyrians Mosul province Duhok province
They can be found in Mosul city, in large numbers
Telkif, Batnaya, Hamdaniya, Bartalla are also well known Chaldea-Assyrian regions
Duhok province
They are found in Duhok city, again in large numbers
They also maintain a presence in many villages throughout the province
Tens of Chaldea-Assyrian villages in Duhok province were almost completely Kurdified in over the past forty years

32. Erbil province Kerkuk province
Large Ayn Kawa neighbourhood in Erbil city and the sub-district Kush Tepe are Chaldea-Assyrian
Kerkuk province
Mainly in New Kerkuk and Almas neighbourhoods

33. Turkmen In Mosul province
Mosul city
Several villages, the largest of which are Sallamiya, Rashidiya and Kara Koyunlu
Telafer District is a well know and heavily populated Turkmen district
Iyadiya and Mahlabiya sub-districts and multiple local villages
Erbil City
Historically a Turkmen city which has been exposed to heavy Kurdish immigration and subsequently has become their capital. 1/3 of the population today are Turkmen

34. Kerkuk Province
Kerkuk city is well known Turkmen city, despite long peroid of intensive Arabification and Kurdification processes, the Turkmen are still constituting a considerable part of population
Many Turkmen sub-districts and villages are found in the south, west and north of the province.
Altun Kopri sub-disrict in the north
Dibis region in the north west
In the west: Yaychi, Kumbetler.....
In the south: Daquq district, Taze Khurmatu and Leylan sub-districts.....

35. Salah al-Din province
Tuz Khurmatu is one of the largest Iraqi districts
Yengice sub-district
Bayat region in the south of Tuz Khurmatu includes large sub-districts of:
Bastamli
Emirli
Sulayman beg, which has become mainly Arabified

36. Diyala Province Includes several large districts and sub-districts
Kifri and Khanaqin,
Exposed to continuous Kurdification,
The Turkmen population today constitutes around 20% of these cities population
Kara Tepe sub-district
Kizrabat sub-district
Mandali
Mandali had an estimated population of nearly 70 thousand in the 1970’s
Today population is estimated to be around 20 thousand

37. Qazzaniya
Baladruz
Adana Koy
Baghdad
There is an estimated three hundred thousand Turkmen living in Baghdad, according to some Turkmen sources.
Kut province
Badra District
Arabified Turkmen Tribes, such as, the well known Karaguli tribe, have spread to the south of Baghdad and Kut provinces, and constitute a population of tens of thousands
The number of Turkmen deported to the south by the Ba’ath regime in not known

38. Boundaries of Kurdish Expansion [Enlarge]

39. KRG’s Boundary of Kurdish Region [Enlarge]

41. Population of Religious Communities
Figures of census 1947
Chaldea-Assyrians 149, %
Yazidis 32, %
Shabaks were considered with ‘others’
UN, MoP & MoT – 2003
Chaldea-Assyrians 334, %
Yazidis 281,984 1%
Shabaks – accord. unofficial sources is 2 – 4,00,000
Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M

42. Population Statistics of Turkmen
All census presents 2%, including early results of census 1957
In the final results, which included the amended results of the 1957 census:
(The last in which the Turkmen were permitted to register – counted 567,000 Turkmen (9% of the population) among Iraq’s population of 6,300,000) †
This census counted 819,000 Kurds which makes 13% of the population †
† = the report number 735 of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy

43. Size of Kurdish Population
The census of ,000 (13%)
CJ Edmonds, %
Longrigg 1,250,000 / 8,500, %
CIA %
WJ Elphinston 13%
Robert Zeidner 12%
Martin J. Dent %
George L. Harris, %
Other sources % & 23%
- KRG region receives 17% of the total Iraqi Budget
- Percentage of the Kurdish members in the Iraqi Parliament is 20%

44. Calculated Number of Kurdish Population in Iraq
No census, figures from 1997 onwards are only estimations
Total Iraqi Population was 12,000,497 in 1977
Applying the equation P0=P1 (1+gr)N
Total Iraqi Population in 2009 is estimated at 28,700,073
The official number today has been exaggerated to > 32,000,000
Kurds possibly represent 17% of the population
The Kurdish population in 2009 should therefore be around 4,879,012
While official KRG numbers estimate it around 4,5 million
Estimated number of Kurds out of KRG population should be around 2 million

45. Organization and Political Rights of Non-ruling Communities
Judit Neurink is a well known Dutch journalist who has frequently visited the Kurdish region
In her article titled: “A true copy of the Saddam regime” she comments that:
The Kurdish authorities are similar to Saddam’s regime
The Political parties control all the components of the society,
Only members of certain Kurdish political parties are appointed to the government
The government has one million staff members, who work for `the ruling parties and receive additional privileges.
The power of the parties is observable in all civil and political domains

46. Turkmen organizations in Erbil from 1991 to 2005
The Turkmen Political parties were:
ITF
Turkmeneli Party
Turkmen national party
Independent party
The Turkmen civil society organizations were:
Turkmen House
Turkmen Brotherhood cultural club

47. The number of Turkmen run organisational buildings was 24
Local TV and Radio
Dispensary
Print house
Turkmeneli newspaper
Information office
Directorate of education
Turkmen Union and Syndicate
13 Turkmen schools
Turkmen department - Institution for Teachers
The number of Turkmen run organisational buildings was 24

48. Eradication of Turkmen organizations
All Turkmen buildings were confiscated in April 2005
Name of the Turkmeneli Television and Radio were changed and have in turn been used as a propaganda instruments by the Kurdish authorities.
The Turkmeneli newspaper has been discontinued
Turkmeneli print house has been closed, followed by the sale of all content
The dispensary has been closed, and again the contents were sold.
Turkmen Institution for Teachers was closed
Buildings were given to Pro-Kurdish Turkmen parties & orgs

49. Only one Turkmen party remains active
It is situated in one small building
Its activities are severely limited
It is significantly infiltrated by the Kurdish authorities
It is not allowed to pursue political, social and cultural activities, outside of their own building.
Governmental buildings cannot be rented.
logistical supporters of Turkmen organizations are exposed to intimidation, exploitation and violence

50. Pro-Kurdish Turkmen parties and orgs were instituted by Kurdish parties
They receive their salaries from the Kurdish authorities
They have almost no activities
Turkmen Schools
administered by non-expert Kurdish staff
curricular is devised by Kurdish specialists
Kurdish language is imposed on students from an early age
Mainly Kurdish history is studied

51. The Syllabus is monitored by Kurdish supervisors
Kurdish directors are appointed to administer these schools
The content of the curricular, the explanatory drawings, and the activities all reflect the Kurdish heritage and culture
The educational quality has steadily worsened, and consequently, registration is currently significantly decreased

52. Restrictions on other rights
The Turkmen publications, other than 2 or 3 pro-Kurdish Turkmen publications, are not allowed
to be sold in shops or put in the libraries
Cafés and public houses can not
operate Turkmen TV and radio
keep the Turkmen publications
Election campaigns 2005
Turkmen parties were only allowed to hang their posters and flags outside their own buildings

53. Turkmen and Administration
There are two Turkmen districts in Kurdish region
Erbil city
Kifri district

54. Erbil city Kifri district
In the early 20th century almost 90% of population of Erbil city was Turkmen
Today, at least 1/3 of the city are Turkmen
City council members are divided solely between two Kurdish parties
Kifri district
Historically a Turkmen region
In the 1950s the Turkmen represented a majority of the population
Now only 20% of the population are Turkmen
There is no Turkmen in district council
Of 17 directors in governmental offices there is only 1 Turkmen representative

55. Turkmen in so-called Disputed Regions
Kerkuk Province
There has been a policy of Kurdification of the administration in Kerkuk.
The Governor, Mayor, Police chief and Directors of most of the Governmental offices and Police systems are Kurdish
Security system is almost completely Kurdified as well

56. Propriety Claim commission
Kerkuk population was
830,000 at the day of the 2003 occupation (table 1)
By 2008 its was estimated to be around 1,400,000 (table 2)
Number of voters was 803,000 in general elections of December 2005
Propriety Claim commission
Total complaint cases are 36,000
Almost 80% are from the Turkmen people
Only 3200 of these cases were completed

57. Satellite maps of Kerkuk city - map of 2002 compared with map of 2007

58. The area was built after occupation the fall of Ba’ath regime
Satellite map of Kerkuk city –
the building area after increased
about 20 Km sq. between 2003 and 2007
The area was built after occupation the fall of Ba’ath regime

59. Khanaqin This is another Historical Turkmen city
Now at least 15% of the population are Turkmen
There were 3 Turkmen in the district council
Unbearable intimidation forced them to join Kurdish groups
21 directors in Governmental offices
18 are from Kurdish parties
3 from Arab and Turkmen parties combined

60. Differences bet. and treatment of non-ruling communities
Population size
Religious and ethnic
All exposed to suppression in the north
The religious minorities were also exposed to attacks by Sunni extremists

61. Non-ruling communities under Saddam and Now
In Ba’ath period
Suppression was mainly ideological and ethnically based
There was a single nationalist party, which mainly excluded non-ruling communities
Demographical changes
Arabification of minority regions
Demolition of villages
Political executions
All non-Ba’ath communities were exposed to violations of their human rights
Due to armed rebellion of Kurdish groups, many Kurdish regions were exposed to atrocities

62. Related to the Turkmen
Enforced demographical modifications, particularly in Kerkuk province, as a result of;
Resettlement of Arabs in Turkmen regions
Demolition of Turkmen regions in Kerkuk, Mosul, Diyala
Political executions
Sectarian, large number Turkmen Shea were exposed to execution
National, execution of politicians and activists (Parties and Organisations)

63. Exposure to terrorist attacks (Unknown origin)
Post Ba’ath Period
Suppression is ethnical and religious
It includes seizing of lands
Demographical changes as a result of the resettlement of Kurdish communities
Intimidations, arrests, killings and assassinations
Marginalisation in administration. Kurdish mainatin political and civil dominance
Exposure to terrorist attacks (Unknown origin)
Institution of pro-Kurdish Turkmen political parties and civil society orgs

64. Non-Ruling Communities and Elections in the North
Factors which render elections totally impartial
Politicized administration
Governmental
Security
Militia
Ruling Kurdish authorities dominate and claim the lands of non-ruling communities
Absence of a democratic culture
Inexperienced, unqualified and politicized election and governmental administration

65. As it is mentioned
Kurdish domination of administration after election in
Erbil
Kifri
Khanaqin
Kerkuk
All of which are not historically or statistically (population size) Kurdish areas

66. Future Scenarios, the Best and the Worst
Major disagreements in the North are:
Power of the federal authorities
Kurdish authorities functioning as an independent region which specifically violates the Iraqi constitution
So-called disputed areas
Historically non-Kurdish regions
Most of these regions were populated mainly by non-Kurds before the occupation and in other regions the Kurds increased in later decades
The large underground wealth is dominated and controlled by Kurdish population
The presence of Peshmerga militia
Amendment of the constitution

67. Scenario I The continuation of the present situation will maintain:
The current instability
The suppression of non-ruling communities
And weaken the Iraqi state

68. Scenario II
Withdrawal of occupation troops without solving major disagreements with the:
Inflexible attitudes of Kurdish political parties
The war will be unavoidable

69. Scenario III Bargain on the Lands will be
At the expense of the non-ruling communities
Bargain on the underground wealth will
Leave a weak Iraqi state
Rule out the enduring national and regional stability

70. Conclusions
The so-called Disputed region is vast region inhabited by millions of people
Iraqi non-ruling communities are large population inhabit mainly the so-called disputed regions
The United Nations authorities accepted the abnormally exaggerated population figures of Kurdish political parties for ‘Food for Ration’ program. These figures are still in use.
The population size of the Iraqi Turkmen has constantly underestimated
The population statistics of ministry of Planning is higher than that of ministry of Trade
Kerkuk province has exposed to massive demographical changes after occupation
The policy of Kurdish political parties is expansionist policy which suppress the non-Kurdish communities
The Kurdish political parties dictate their terms and the involved powers and international community do not move a finger

71. Discussion

72. Discussion
Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M