1. Workshop om inddragelse af ny ter 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Baltic Nest Institute – Status and Progress Baltic Nest Institute Department of Marine Ecology National Environmental Research Institute Aarhus University www.balticnest.org The Environmental standing of the Baltic Sea: from political proposal to practical projects - Copenhagen - 17 March 2008 Bo Riemann, NERI, AU

2. Workshop om inddragelse af ny ter 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Baltic Nest Institute www.balticnest.org

3. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark HELCOM Action Plan – What’s next? List of Content: Research, monitoring, management and political decisions NERI – responsibilities and committments Baltic Nest Institute (BNI) – Status BNI progress and missing links Approaching a decision-support system for the Baltic Sea

4. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Seminar Copenhagen - The Environmental standing of the Baltic Sea: from political proposal to practical project, or (my words) from practical project to political decision

5. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark NERI Contribution NERI is part of University of Aarhus. NERI undertakes scientific consultancy work, monitoring of nature and the environment as well as applied and strategic research. NERI’s task is to establish a scientific foundation for environmental policy decisions.

6. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Status for BNI-DK Danish BNI - start 1. September 2007, includes 11 employees BNI-DK is situated at NERI, Roskilde (dept. of Marin Ecology) but involves also: –NERI, dept. of Atmospheric environment –NERI, dept. for Freshwater Ecology –NERI, dept. for System Analyses –DTU Aqua, (former DFU) –DMI, Center for ocean og is Funding from University of Aarhus for 4 years

7. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark BNI inheritance from MARE Drainage basin modeling Marine modeling Marine and runoff data Atmospheric emissions and load Fishery management Cost minimization model NEST can be used freely with any computer with Internet access from http://WWW.MARE.SU.SE

8. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark The integrated BNI model Policy measures & costs Pressures/ emissions Atmosphere Drainage basins Coastal zone Open Baltic Sea Ecosystem effects Ecosystem services and value Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes

9. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark The integrated BNI model Policy measures & costs Pressures/ emissions Atmosphere Drainage basins Coastal zone Open Baltic Sea Ecosystem effects Ecosystem services and value Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes

10. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Atmospheric N-transport using The DEHM model The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is state-of- the-art atmospheric modelling and is applied in NOVANA, AMAP, and research projects

11. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Atmospheric N transport using The DEHM model Calculations of monthly depositions of different N-fractions to 13 areas used in the BALTSEM model with a resolution of 50 km x 50 km (1991-2006) The depositions will be available in the NEST system Depositions from 10 different sources:

12. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark The integrated BNI model Policy measures & costs Pressures/ emissions Atmosphere Drainage basins Coastal zone Open Baltic Sea Ecosystem effects Ecosystem services and value Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes

13. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Drainage basin modelling Improve existing model (CSIM), through a dynamic calculation of nutrient retention in surface water (wetlands, rivers and lakes).

14. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Modelling loads of water and nutrients Detailed, dynamic process modelling of retention in surface water. Models to calculate loss of nutrients with high resolution. Combining detailed production data with a catalog of means to reduce losses of nutrients, inclusive costs Scenarios: Status quo vs. Implementation of WFD requirements and climate changes

15. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark The integrated BNI model Policy measures & costs Pressures/ emissions Atmosphere Drainage basins Coastal zone Open Baltic Sea Ecosystem effects Ecosystem services and value Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes

16. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark BALTSEM model struktur 13 sub-basins: Northern Kattegat, Central Kattegat, southern Kattegat, Samsø Belt, Fehman Belt, Øresund, Arkona Basin, Bornholm Basin, Baltic Proper, Gulf of Riga, Gulf of Finland, Bothnian Sea, Bothnian bay. Coupling Physical and biogeochemical Process: 17 state variables (14 in Pelagic layer and 3 in sediment): nutrients (7), phytoplankton (3), zooplankton (1), detritus (3), oxygen, salinity and temperature Forcing functions: Temperature, wind, current velocities, solar radiation, nutrients and etc. Spatiotemporal dynamic: seasonal (monthly), vertical and horizontal distribution of species

17. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark (Savchuk, 2007) (BALTSEM ) BALTSEM model structure

18. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Costal zone and open sea modelling Costal dynamic modelling (Warnemünde) will be integrated with BALTSEM and BNI’s Marine model Ensemble modelling is an integrated part of this Danish Straits

19. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark The integrated BNI model Policy measures & costs Pressures/ emissions Atmosphere Drainage basins Coastal zone Open Baltic Sea Ecosystem effects Ecosystem services and value Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes

20. Workshop om inddragelse af ny ter 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Macrobenthos Spring phyto.Other phyto. Bacteria Microzoopl. Mesozoopl. Mysids Meiobenthos Seals Detritus Ad. herring Juv. herring Ad. cod Juv. cod Fishery Ad. sprat Juv. Sprat NEST existing fish model

21. Workshop om inddragelse af ny ter 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark DiatomsCyanob. Bacteria Microzoopl. Mysids Meiobenthos Fishery Seals Detritus Age 0 Eggs/larvae Age 0 Eggs/larvae Age 0 Eggs/larvae Pseudocalanus Acartia Temora Cladocerans Other... Saduria Other... DinoflagellatesOther... Age 1 Herring Age 2 etc.. Age 2, etc Age 1 Cod Age 2, etc... Age 1 Sprat Further splitting of groups Fish Multistanza groups

22. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark The integrated BNI model Policy measures & costs Pressures/ emissions Atmosphere Drainage basins Coastal zone Open Baltic Sea Ecosystem effects Ecosystem services and value Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes

23. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Toxicants Toxicants is a threat to the enviroment of the Baltic Sea Integration of atmospheric and marine models Selection of important toxicants Establisments of mass balances, impact, and risk analyses

24. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Cost Efficiency Modelling (Model dimensions) 9 countries 24 drainage basins 7 marine areas –Bothnian Bay –Bothnian Sea –Baltic Proper –Gulf of Finland –Gulf of Riga –Danish Straits –Kattegat I1I2 I4 I3 S1 S2 C1C2

25. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Means to reduce N/P loads 9 means will be used: –Establishing wetlands (N & P) –Reduction of fertilizers (N) –Area utilization (N) –Limitations in domestic animals (N & P) –Cows and pigs –Waste water treatment (N & P) –NOx reduction (N) Cost minimization

26. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Maintenance and opdating GIS data Objective: improve and update the quality of existing GIS data in the NEST system coordinate model interfaces with GIS data Construct administrative GIS structures Couple models and GIS into a dynamic solution collect GIS data from The Baltic Sea Ecoregion develop new areas for economic data and presentation of results in NEST model database

27. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark What exact steps should be taken to aid the implementation? Science-based support system Update the databasis (1997-1993 – now) Improve models (coast vs. open sea, dynamic modelling, Danish Straits) Link models Develop cost minimization models Open source philosophy Data, models and manuals available to the public

28. Baltic Sea Round table seminar – Copenhagen 17. March 2008 Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Conclusions The NEST philosophy will establish a science-based decision support system to improve the basis for political decisions NEST will link ecological and economic models Continued work in NEST will improve research, monitoring and management in the Baltic Sea Ecoregion All NEST work is done with end-users