1. POTENTIAL OF CONTROLLABLE CONSUMPTION IN CR possibilities of smart technologies application Michal Macenauer Jiří Ptáček EGÚ Brno, a. s., electric power system operation and development ČEZ Měření conference, 2012

2. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 2 EGÚ Brno, a.s. Research, development, production, engineering in the production, transmission, distribution and use of electricity, gas and heat more than 60 years of history and experience (from the beginning of the interconnected power system of CR) major activities: analysis of power system operation and its development from the short term to long-term and strategic considerations long-term missions and goals: to be independent and credible long-term partner in the planning balance electricity and gas networks in CR (the balance between supply and demand or production and consumption) company particularly focuses on: 1. analysis and development on system-wide basis 2. high-voltage electrical equipment, monitoring of operation and faults 3. network overvoltage, development of the protections, testing

3. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 3 EGÚ Brno, a.s. Department of operation and development of power system developing "Long-term electricity balances EC CR“ calculations and analysis of electrical networks at levels 400 kV to 110 kV calculations and analyses the source and the fuel base developing “Typical Load Profiles” for electricity and gas distribution preparation of data for regulated prices determination for electricity distribution support for energy legislation and strategic decision-making, expert and advisory activities in the field of long-term electricity maintaining a comprehensive database and simulation models for CR power system and developing technical database of the power systems of Central Europe

4. Contents Control of the demand side in general balance between supply and demand (production and consumption) situation in CR household and electro-mobiles consumption – controllability Consumption and load shapes prediction total values load shapes Analysis of control possibilities preconditions quantification Summary

5. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 5 Control of the demand side in general Balance between supply and demand (production and consumption) problematic issue in the beginning because of unreliability of production sources methods of regulation were found thanks to development the following question was answered: How to provide individual consumers with take-off by their time schemes? solution of balance became added value – it is provided as a service of power industry to consumers, who pay for the utilization increase. time-independent energy take-off is utility – electric networks are invisible now revival of old paradigm – to move securing the balance partially back to the demand side

6. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 6 Control of the demand side in general Situation in CR – current state – consumption structure Large consumption sector  shape of take-off is determined by technological requirements  motivation to control on consumer side is related to prices for peak and low load Commercial consumption sector  shape of take-off is determined by operational requirements  partly controlled by HDO Household consumption sector  shape of take-off is mostly determined by schedule of daily actvities  partly controlled by HDO Large consumption sector Commercial consumption sector Other (without pumped storage) Household consumption sector

7. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 7 Control of the demand side in general Situation in CR – current state and future Current consumption sectors Large consumption sector Commercial consumption sector Household consumption sector New consumption sector Electro-mobiles significant consumption (6 % DNC in 2040) issue of the capacity necessity of charging-control coordination direct control has already been implemented by HDO potential of higher control direct control has already been implemented by HDO (Ripple control) potential of higher control is insignificant mild increase in direct control is anticipated potential is determined by prices on the market; technologically it has been already secured

8. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 8 Household consumption sector according to control possibilities every appliance is controllable...the issue is added (reduced) value of the control precondition: we don’t want to reduce the value arising from electricity utilization there are two kinds of consumption in terms of controllability: Control of the demand side in general 1. Electricity consumption with potential of time postponing while maintaining its utilization added value appliances partly independent on power supply or appliances whose readiness and prompt response need not be important value 2. Consumption without potential of time postponing while maintaining its utilization added value all others, especially those appliances used in relatively fixed time

9. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 9 Household consumption – ways of controllable consumption control 1. Electricity consumption with potential of time postponing while maintaining its utilization added value Control of the demand side in general a) DIRECT CONTROL appliances with efect partly independent on power supply period customer can fully leave the control under pre-determined conditions b) INDIRECT CONTROL appliances whose readiness and prompt response need not be important value customer will decide if/when to leave the control

10. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 10 Household consumption – types of non-controllable consumption 2. Consumption without potential of time postponing while maintaining its utilization added value Control of the demand side in general a) STRICTLY NON-CONTROLLABLE appliances used in relatively fixed time control totally impossible b) USUALLY NON-CONTROLLABLE appliances whose control is connected with partial loss of comfort emergency control possible

11. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 11 Control of the demand side in general Electro-mobiles consumption – possibilities or necessity of control new sector – uncertain future depends on many factors that are difficult to predict, electro-mobiles consumption in case of 100% substitution could total 13 TWh (in 2060 it would account for 15% DNC), it will be lower value because of circumstances, electro-mobiles will be a significant problem for balance ensuring especially in distribution networks – significant power problems – necessity of big investments in high and low voltage grids, Electro-mobiles consumption character: 1. controllable and non-controllable (in certain proportions) 2. controllable part is: directly controllable and also indirectly controllable

12. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 12 Control of the demand side in general Electro-mobiles consumption – possibilities of storage due to electro-mobiles operation character we can anticipate: 1. about 60% of energy will be used up in the evening and night times – possibility of night consumption decrease compensation, 2. only about 1/5 of electro-mobiles can be used in the mode of power and energy supply (1/5 of electro-mobiles connected to the network at the same time), 3. possibility of postponed charging (necessity to plan the operation interruption of electro-mobiles) poses a significant loss of customer comfort (limited number of cycles... about 3000).

13. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 13 CONTROLLABLE Consumption according to controllability Control of the demand side in general DIRECT CONTROLINDIRECT CONTROL NON-CONTROLLABLE STRICTLY NON-CONTROLLABLE USUALLY NON-CONTROLLABLE

14. Contents Control of the demand side in general balance between supply and demand (production and consumption) situation in CR household and electro-mobiles consumption – controllability Consumption and load shapes prediction total values load shapes Analysis of control possibilities preconditions quantification Summary

15. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 15 Prediction of annual consumption values of sectors and DNC Consumption and load shapes prediction + 24 % + 33 %

16. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 16 Prediction of household sector load shapes – three views (MW) Consumption and load shapes prediction 1st Sunday of April – day with high loadDay of minimum – day with minimum load3rd Wednesday of April – day with medium load

17. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 17 950 GWh 2,8 TWh Prediction of annual values of electromobiles consumption Consumption and load shapes prediction low reference high history

18. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 18 Prediction of the electro-mobile load shape Consumption and load shapes prediction Weekday and weekend load shape in 2020 and 2030 - comparison Weekday 2030 Weekend 2030 working day non-working day working day power (MW)

19. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 19 Consumption and load shapes prediction Summary – consumption and load shapes prediction between 2015 and 2030 we anticipate: 1. increase in DNC of about 27 %, 2. increase in househod sector consumption of about 18 %, 3. increase in commercial consumption sector of about 29 %, 4. household sector consumption diagram: maximum and minimum load will increase by about 18 % between 2015 and 2030, 5. commercial sector consumption diagram: maximum load will increase by about 16 % between 2015 and 2030, minimum will increase by about 24 % (in accordance with precondition of seasonal balancing), 6. Electro-mobiles sector: 840 thousand cars – about 950 GWh yearly.

20. Contents Control of the demand side in general balance between supply and demand (production and consumption) situation in CR household and electro-mobiles consumption – controllability Consumption and load shapes prediction total values load shapes Analysis of control possibilities preconditions quantification Summary

21. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 21 Analysis of control possibilities Preconditions for direct control direct control is currently implemented by HDO, direct control can be implemented by any way (it depends on market organisation and setting rules), character of direct control is significant: customer can fully leave the control under pre-determined conditions (number of hours or basic parameters of control scheme), The aim of the controlling subject is to modify the shape of the load digram – a customer gets price benefits for providing the consumption for control, Unfortunately, the current state is specific by strongly unsuitable rule setting (tariff policy) of this service – in some cases it leads to misusing and thereby to deterioration of the price benefit service (costs are thus unfairly divided among customers).

22. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 22 Development of direct control for household sector – three views (MW) 3rd Wednesday of April – day with middle load1st Sunday of the year – day with high loadDay of minimum – day with minimum load (weekday) Analysis of control possibilities

23. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 23 Analysis of control possibilities Summary – direct control household consumption sector: 1. mild decrease in total annual energy in 2030 to about 97.8% of 2015 value is anticipated especially because of buildings insulation and higher efficiency of warm utility water use, 2. average annual power of direct control: anticipated on the level of 360 MW in long-term horizon, 3. annual energy of direct control diagram is anticipated on the level of 3.1 TWh (about 5.3% of today’s DNC), commercial consumption sector: 1. increase in total annual energy is anticipated in 2030 to the level of 109.3% of 2015 value especially because of commercial consumption sector development (economic growth of CR), 2. average annual power of direct control for commercial consumption sector is anticipated on the level of 130 MW, 3. annual energy of direct control diagram is anticipated on the level of 1.1 TWh (1.9% of today’s DNC).

24. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 24 Analysis of control possibilities Preconditions for indirect control indirect control does not have potential in commercial consumption sector – (shape of load diagram is determined by production and added value requirements), only appliances with controllable consumption will participate in indirect control (appliances whose readiness and prompt response need not be important value) – washing machine and dishwasher, consumption with strictly non-controllable character was separated (appliances used in fixed times) – consumption for cooking mainly, only intra-day shifts of part of consumption are possible, operational limits for control were set and observed – diagrams of maximum consumption available for connecting and disconnecting in certain hours (very complicated issue).

25. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 25 Structure of electricity consumption for average household Analysis of control possibilities

26. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 26 Structure of electricity consumption for average household Analysis of control possibilities

27. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 27 Limits of indirect control – 1st Sunday of 2030 Analysis of control possibilities maximum availability of switched off appliances maximum availability of switched on appliances power (MW)

28. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 28 Limits of indirect control – 3rd Wednesday of April 2030 Analysis of control possibilities maximum availability of switched off appliances maximum availability of switched on appliances power (MW)

29. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 29 Limits of indirect control – a day of minimum in 2030 Analysis of control possibilities maximum availability of switched off appliances maximum availability of switched on appliances power (MW)

30. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 30 Indirect control – balancing of household consumption sector shape – 1st Sunday of 2030 Analysis of control possibilities Optimization to household consumption sector shape power (MW) household consumption shape without direct control household consumption shape without direct control and strictly noncontrollable consumption household consumption shape without direct control and strictly noncontrollable consumption balanced household consumption shape balanced

31. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 31 Indirect control – balancing of household consumption sector shape – 3rd Wednesday of 2030 Analysis of control possibilities power (MW) Optimization to household consumption sector shape household consumption shape without direct control household consumption shape without direct control and strictly noncontrollable consumption household consumption shape without direct control and strictly noncontrollable consumption balanced household consumption shape balanced

32. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 32 Indirect control – balancing of household consumption sector shape – day of minimum in 2030 (weekday) Analysis of control possibilities power (MW) Optimization to household consumption sector shape household consumption shape without direct control household consumption shape without direct control and strictly noncontrollable consumption household consumption shape without direct control and strictly noncontrollable consumption balanced household consumption shape balanced

33. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 33 Indirect control – balancing of DNC shape – 3rd Wednesday of April Analysis of control possibilities optimization to DNC shape power (MW) 2015 balanced 2030 balanced 2015 2030

34. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 34 Indirect control – customers’ willingness Analysis of control possibilities For 50% of original price => estimated utilization of about 22% 22% of potential % utilization of whole potential % original price high estim. reference estim. low estim.

35. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 35 Analysis of control possibilities Indirect control – summary percentage expression of control possibilities – 2015 – daily level (% of daily household consumption sector):

36. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 36 Analysis of control possibilities Indirect control – summary percentage expression of control possibilities– 2015 – daily energy (GWh):

37. Contents Control of the demand side in general balance between supply and demand (production and consumption) situation in CR household and electro-mobiles consumption – controllability Consumption and load shapes prediction total values load shapes Analysis of control possibilities preconditions quantification Summary

38. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 38 Summary Direct control majority of controllable consumption in CR is controlled directly by HDO (about 81 %) Only minor increase in controllable energy is anticipated for direct control (0.7 % between 2015 and 2030) Indirect control indirect control is not applicable in production sectors (large consumption sector, commercial consumption sector) – the load shape is determined by technological and operational requirements energy for indirect control for household consumption sector is anticipated on the level of about 5.4 % of daily consumption while respecting the estimated willingness of customers it will only account for about 1/5 of the theoretical potential, it is about 1.2 % of daily consumption (the level of 50% for price benefits) utilization for electro-mobiles sector – significant potential

39. EGÚ Brno, a. s. Sekce provozu a rozvoje elektrizační soustavy 39 Finally, let’s think about... Is the potential of indirect control on the demand side usable for common operation of the Czech power system?  the effect has stochastic character – it cannot be used directly as ancillary service guaranteeing the effect  the functionality is conditioned by adequate price benefit (or price disadvantage … not applicable)  additional tool for ensuring the balance especially in emergency cases (switching off certain consumption sectors) – the precondition is appropriate adjustment  it can reduce investments in infrastructure connected with anticipated electro-mobile sector development (especially in big agglomerations) – the most significant potential

40. michal.macenauer@egubrno.cz jiri.ptacek@egubrno.cz EGÚ Brno, a. s. electric power system operation and development Thank you for your attention.