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2. Background About 1 in 40 (n = 224,000) Australian women physically assaulted in the last 12 months (ABS) Nearly 90 per cent of assaults were inflicted either by: Current or former partner (30.5%) Family or friends (36.8%) Other known persons (20.5%) We have a very incomplete picture of how various factors influence this violence… ….particularly stress and social support 2

3. Past research Evidence linking financial stress to IPV MacMillan & Gartner (1999); Cunradi et al. (2002); Wyk et al. (2003); Benson et al. (2003); Lauritsen & Schaum (2004); Weatherburn (2011) But see: Johnson (2008); Julian & McKendry (1993); Mouzos & Makkai (2004) Evidence linking personal stress to IPV Straus & Gelles (1990); Julian and McKendry (1993) But see: Cano and Vivian (2003) Evidence linking social support to IPV Van Wyk et al. (2003); Goodman et al. (2005); Weatherburn (2011) But see: Carlson et al. (2002) 3

4. Problems with past research Inadequate controls e.g. Cano & Vivian 2003: no control for alcohol use Poor measurement e.g. Financial stress is created by a gap between income and financial commitments but past measures of financial stress (e.g. unemployment, income, SES) only capture income Unrepresentative or small samples e.g. Carlson et al. (2002): abused women attending hospital compared with non-abused women attending hospital, Julian & McKendry (1993): 100 men drawn from newspaper ads. And, most importantly…. 4

5. Use of cross-sectional surveys The majority of previous studies were based on cross-sectional surveys Have you experienced financial stress in the past 12 months? Have you been the victim of assault in the past 12 months? Can’t tell cause (stress?) from effect (violence?) Need a longitudinal survey 5

6. Aim of the current study Examine the longitudinal relationships between violence against women and personal stress financial stress social support using the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey 6

7. 7 A B Wave t (t = survey year) Wave t+1 (t+1 = next survey year) ↑ financial stress → ↑ physical violence ↑ personal stress ↓ social support Wave i to j (i, j = any pair of survey years) Wave i to j (i, j = same pair of surveys) Δ financial stress → Δ physical violence Δ personal stress Δ social support Hypotheses

8. HILDA Broad social and economic longitudinal (panel) study of Australian households Items on physical violence, stress, social support Commenced in 2001 and is ongoing (2013 = survey wave 13) Yearly data collection at household and person level Face-to-face interviews and self-completion surveys 8

9. Current study samples ► Women ≥15 years ► Face-to-face person and self-completion surveys ► Physical violence item ► Pooled across survey waves t = 2002 to 2009 48,368 records from 9,393 women A. Next year physical violence item [t+1 = 2003 to 2010] 42,030 records from 7,950 women B. Change across survey waves in physical violence 3,069 records from 506 women 9

10. Different wording to other Australian studies e.g. Crime Victimisation Survey, Personal Safety Survey Did any of these happen to you in the past 12 months? Yes/no – Victim of physical violence (e.g., assault) A. Next survey year [wave t+1 = 2003 to 2010] B. Survey year [wave t = 2002 to 2009] 10 Dependent variable

11. Independent variables (1 of 2) Number of financial stressors (7) [since Jan in survey year] e.g. Went without meals Number of personal stressors (9) [12 months prior to survey] e.g. Serious injury/illness of a friend/relative Social network mean score (10) [time of survey] e.g. I often need help from other people but can’t get it (7-point scale: strongly disagree to strongly agree) 11

12. Independent variables (2 of 2) Alcoholic drinks per week [time of survey] Marital status [time of survey] Age [June 30 in survey year] Pregnant/partner pregnant [12 months prior to survey] 12

13. Model A Logistic Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE) model Controls for multiple records per person [unstructured covariance matrix, robust standard errors] Sample 42,030 records from 7,950 women with next year violence data [subset of 48,368 records from 9,393 women] 13 Wave t (t = survey year) Wave t+1 (t+1 = next survey year) ↑ financial stress → ↑ physical violence ↑ personal stress ↓ social support

14. Model A - characteristics Percent of 42,030 records with characteristic [record not woman level] Financial stressors076% 3+ 6% Personal stressors0 48% 4+ 1% Poor social networksmean ≥ 4 9% Alcoholic drinks per week12+ 10% Marital statusmarried 51% separated 3% Age 15-24 years 16% 25-54 years55% Pregnant/partner pregnant 5% 14

15. Model A - violence Percent within characteristic with next survey year (wave t+1) violence [n=42,030 records] Total 1.4% Financial stressors3+7% Personal stressors4+7% Poor social networksmean ≥ 4 4% Alcoholic drinks per week12+ 2% Marital statusseparated3% Age 15-24 years 3% Pregnant/partner pregnant 2% 15

16. Model A - adjusted results 1 of 2 16

17. Model A - adjusted results 2 of 2 17

18. Model B Logistic fixed effects model Includes only persons who change over time Focus on within person change Controls for all factors that do not change over time (e.g. child abuse) 18 Wave i to j (i, j = any pair of surveys) Wave i to j (i, j = same pair of surveys) Δ financial stress → Δ physical violence Δ personal stress Δ social support

19. Total sample 9,363 women [48,368 records] No change = never violence1-8 waves (8 for 34%) 94% No change = always violence1-5 waves (1 for 81%) 1% Change = some violence2-8 waves (8 for 35%) 5% Model B – violence over time 19 506 women with 3,069 records - Model B sample 1 wave violence (up to 7 no) 71% 2 waves violence (up to 6 no) 19% 3 waves violence (up to 5 no) 7% etc ….

20. Model B - examples of change 20 Change in violence across consecutive years (51% of 3,069) No to Yes (23% of 3,069) Yes to No (28% of 3,069) Characteristict to t+1Change t to t+1Change 3+ financial stressors24-29% ↑ 5% 29-24% ↓ -5% 1+ personal stressors68-75% ↑ 7% 77-71% ↓ -6% Not partnered54-63% ↑ 9% 65-60% ↓ -5% Poor social networks21-23%2% 23-23%0% Risky alcohol14-13%-1% 15-13%2%

21. Model B - adjusted results 21

22. Tentative conclusions 22 Wave t (survey year) Wave t+1 (next survey year) ↑ financial stress → ↑ physical violence ↑ personal stress ↓ social support Wave i to j (any pair of surveys) Wave i to j (same pair of surveys) Δ financial stress → Δ physical violence Δ personal stress social support Δ

23. Concluding remarks Low violence prevalence and weak alcohol effect likely to be measurement issues Weak social support effect in Model B may be a power issue Need to understand how financial and personal stress are influencing violence Need more information on victim-offender relationship and on offenders 23

24. Questions??? 24