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Latin America and Caribbean Energy Forecasting – Scenarios at 2032 Workshop February 19, 2009 Kingston - Jamaica.

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Presentation on theme: "Latin America and Caribbean Energy Forecasting – Scenarios at 2032 Workshop February 19, 2009 Kingston - Jamaica."— Presentation transcript:

1 Latin America and Caribbean Energy Forecasting – Scenarios at 2032 Workshop February 19, 2009 Kingston - Jamaica

2 2 2 1 2 3 4 CONTENT Energy Forecasting – Scenarios at 2032 Background and factors Study Proposal Study Objectives Scope Expected outcomes Work plan and structure 5 6

3 3 Regional Energy Matrix Fuente: SIEE – OLADE 211,398 MMbep 22.0% Hydroelectrical potencial (100 years) Potencial Used 13,500 MMbep 4,2% Other potencial renewable energy (100 years) Potencial Used 50010 6 bep216,869Carbón mineral 3410 6 bep58,332Natural Gas 4210 6 bep160,965Oil Relation: Reserve – Production (years) Unit Reserve tested Energetic (Not renewables) Inventory of Energy Resources, 2007 1

4 4 Regional Energetic Matrix Energétic matrix in LAC (Demand) Component of the hydropower in the energy matrix has remained constant over the past 3 years although it has great potential. The demand for oil, derivates and natural gas still maintaining the order of 70%, which confirms them as the main sources in the energy sector in the Region. 1

5 5 Projection of total population The population of OLADEs member countries in The Caribbean grows yearly by 334 000 persons. According to ECLAC estimates, by 2030 the population of these countries will reach 44 million persons. The demographic concentration among these countries will be in Haiti, Republica Dominicana and Cuba. 1

6 6 Projection of total population Fuentes: CEPAL 2007 – Solo países Miembros de OLADE 1

7 7 Projection of total population Over the coming years, it will be necessary to ensure a reasonable quality of life for a growing population, with: -Food -Housing -Access to safe water -Education -Health And also access to electricity supply 1

8 8 Energy consumption The average yearly consumption of primary energy worldwide is between 1.6 and 1.7 Toe / person. This consumption is only referential, considering that in developed countries, primary energy consumption per inhabitant is eight or more times greater than consumption in Caribbean countries. Primary energy consumption will continue to grow and fossil fuels will continue to be an important part of the energy matrix. 1

9 9 Consumption of energy primary (toe/person) Fuentes: SIEE-OLADE, Octubre 2008, - BP Statistical Review June,2008 - World Economic Outlook, September 2008 1

10 10 CO 2 emissions The release of green–house gases is related to fossil fuel consumption. In this regard, we should assess not only the volume of carbon dioxide emissions, but also their rate of growth. 1

11 11 CO 2 emissions – Other countries Fuente: Sistema de Información Económica Energética -SIEE 0.5%1.9%1.1%5 957.05 823.55 289.35 001.7USA 0.7%2.0%1.3%1 230.41 190.21 075.51 009.1JAPON 0.8%1.5%0.2%415.3399.0369.5366.5FRANCIA 2.5%2.0%1.5%631.3558.4505.9468.9CANADA 2.9%4.3%1.6%406.6352.6285.3263.3AUSTRALIA 3.2%2.9%8.5%1 165.7994.1862.2574.6INDIA 3.7%5.4%1.1%387.1323.1248.135.3ESPAÑA 12.8%0.5%4.9%5 322.72 912.62 844.62 241.2CHINA 05 / 0000 / 9595 / 90 2 005 2 000 1 995 1 990 YEARLY GROWTH RATE TOTAL IN MILLIONS OF TONS PER YEAR PAÍS 1

12 12 CO 2 emissions – Caribbean countries Fuente: Sistema de Información Económica Energética -SIEE 1

13 13 1 Average yearly GDP growth, 2003–2007 Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y El Caribe - CEPAL 9% 4% 5% 6% 5% 7% 8% 12%

14 14 Energy intensity vs. GDP per capita in 2007 – are member countries more efficient? Fuentes: SIEE-OLADE, Octubre 2008, - BP Statistical Review June,2008 - World Economic Outlook, September 2008 Fuente: Sistema de Información Económica Energética -SIEE 1 Haiti Suriname Rep. Dominicana Barbados Grenada

15 15 Foreign investment in millions of US$ Fuentes: CEPAL 2007 – Solo países Miembros de OLADE 1

16 16 OLADE has proposed to help its member countries in the new need to strengthen institutional capacities for planning. Energy forecasting, understood as proposing and analyzing future scenarios based on reliable parameters and reasonable hypotheses that are suited to the realities of each country or region, is an essential element of planning. STUDY PROPOSAL 2

17 17 ENERGY PLANNING Before, the market established the development plans for the sector. Today's structural reforms in the energy sector have demonstrated the importance of planning. Energy security is a State responsibility, and planning is a tool to fullfil that responsibility. Energy data collection is essential for planning processes. Study proposal 2

18 18 México & Centroamerica Caribbean South America Subregional study proposal 2

19 19 The analysis of energy demand will be made with a breakdown by sectors of consumption and energy sources. Emphasis will be placed on the particularities of each country and subregion. Be considered sources of energy that are most relevant in each country and subregion, as well as the potential for intra- intersubregiones and complementarity order to focus on important issues foresight of reality and the energy sub-regional energy integration options. Study Approach 2

20 20 Analyze the possibilities and alternatives that waiting for the supply and demands in the horizon to the year 2032. Determine some consequences that could be produced in the power sector of the Region before the alternative of possible scenes of regional integration. To obtain a document of subregional consensus that contains the opinion of the power development. Study Objetives 3

21 21 Analyses of scenes that consider confront the uncertainty of the future power. Analysis of two scenes The Low regional integration and maintenance of existing dynamic tendencies Scene with options for the sectors and selected specific power plants in each subregion. Scenarios to consider 4

22 22 National: Institutions in the energy sector has a well-defined territory and the concept of "national sovereignty" remains rooted in Latin America and the Caribbean Subregional: There are some specific subregions, linked to a process of economic integration or utilization of energy resources or additional features in a subregion Regional: Search for an overview of the region, the optimization of complementarities that exist between subregions Scope of the study 4

23 23 Having a long-term vision on the behavior of demand and supply of energy in Latin America and the Caribbean. Promote the development of energy policies and strategies. Support for energy planning agencies in strengthening institutional capacities and training professionals of the Member Countries. Formation of a network of specialists in energy forecasting. Expected outcomes 5

24 24 Participants: The experts from each member country, the consulting firm and professional from OLADE. Experts from each Country Membres provide information and participate in discussions at the workshops. OLADE professionals will guide the study and participate in workshops. The Consultant Team conducted exercises estimates, compiled the information and perform analysis. Structure and Work Plan 6

25 25 Working Structure 6

26 26 México México y América Central - October 2008 PerúAmérica del Sur – November 2008 JamaicaCaribe – February - 2009 Preliminary Report, Mar – May 2009 PanamáMéxico y América Central UruguayAmérica del Sur CubaCaribe Junio 2009 – Final Report Regional Workshop with the 26 member countries Sub–regional Workshop Schedule 6

27 27 La energía más económica es la que no se consume y la más costosa es la que no se tiene. De su uso racional garantizamos suficiente abastecimiento. De la eficiencia se obtienen beneficios para el desarrollo sostenible de los pueblos, con el fin de satisfacer necesidades indipensables de vivienda, alimentación, salud y educación, disminuir la pobreza y conservar el ambiente.

28 28 Thank you, Jamaica! Quito-Ecuador

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