1. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France AN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF SÃO PAULO Augusto José Pereira Filho Oswaldo Massambani Ricardo Hallak Hugo Karam Reinaldo Haas Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo

2. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Motivation ACQUA 20/06/ 2003 City light NASA

3. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France (mm h -1 )

4. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France (mm) Fonte: OESP

5. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France 01/02 02/02 04/02 29/01 30/01 31/01 (mm) DAILY RAINFALL ACCUMUATION 2004

6. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France SEA BREEZE FLOOD EVENTS 2002 - 2004

7. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

8. Heat Island in the MASP

9. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France FLOOD CHARACTERISTICS 75% FLASH FLOODS Td > 20 o C 60% SEA BREEZE + T> 30 o C 13 FLOODS A YEAR ( 2000 - 2004)

10. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France NCEP

11. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France NEW TOOLS to reduce flood impacts: MESONET; MICRONET; DOW X-POL DUAL; ARPS/T-TEB SYSTEM.

12. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France FAPESP/GESP

13. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Container Climatizado c/ equipamentos Sistema de nivelamento Link de dados Conjunto Antena pedestal do radar Grupo gerador DOW X-POL DUAL

14. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

15. Rainfall Analysis

16. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France + RADAR SATELLITE ANALYZED

17. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Rainfall Forecasting - ARPS

18. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France 12-km 2-km ARPS Domain (123x123x35) 24 hr ~ 30 min. (147x123x35) 24 hr ~3 hr

19. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France 48 00 Init 4800 Init 0048 Init 00 0612182430364248 Operational Routine (hour)

20. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France CLUSTER Server (Dual Xeon ) 3.4 Ghz, 01 GB DDR ECC; 16 Nodes P4 3.6 GHz, 512MB DDR 400MHz ECC, 512K cache; Clic Mandrake 10.1 with kernel 2.6.12; Libraries MPICH, PVM ATLAS, LAPACK, ScaLAPACK; 105 Gflops with Linpack; 38 Gflops with ARPS (estimated)

21. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Example

22. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Wind and Rainfall Fields (2-km grid) (123 x 123 x 57)

23. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

24. Urban Boundary Layer Modeling of the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP)

25. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Totally urbanized in the MASP CBERS-2 image (resolution = 20 m )

26. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Thermodynamics variables Calibration of the Urban Surface Model. Improve the Numerical Forecast. Model and Dataset Interface Set up.

27. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France  e (K) IAG-USP

28. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Goal of Tropical TEB (T-TEB) To develop a Tropical Urban Surface Model calibrated for the MASP, based on Masson (2000); Improve the short-term forecast of rainfall.

29. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Short Wave Radiation Forcing

30. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Precipitation: 04-05 Feb 2004 IAG-USP

31. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Water accumulation at urban surfaces (simul.)

32. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Urban Surfaces Heat Fluxes

33. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France Hydrological Modeling

34. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France ANN

35. Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

36. THE END