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Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES REGIONAL AIACC WORKSHOP Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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Presentation on theme: "Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES REGIONAL AIACC WORKSHOP Buenos Aires, Argentina."— Presentation transcript:

1 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES REGIONAL AIACC WORKSHOP Buenos Aires, Argentina August, 2004 BUILDING FLOOD RISK MAPS, ASSESING SALINITY FRONT DISPLACEMENT Angel Menéndez, Mariano Re, Martín Kind INA (Laboratorio de Hidráulica) UBA (Facultad de Ingeniería)

2 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES PRESENTATION Floods in the future Model for salinity front THE END Model for flood maps Salinity front in the future

3 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FORCINGS Tributaries Tide Winds

4 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES

5 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES

6 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MODEL RPP-2D (Re & Menéndez 2003)

7 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES BOTTOM TOPOGRAPHY

8 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL RPP-2D Spatial domain = 1018 x 953 km Spatial step = 2,5 km Grid : 408 x 382 Temporal step = 60 s (720 steps/cycle) Bound. Cond. South : Astronomical tidal wave Bound. Cond. Tributaries : Discharge Wind : Field distribution

9 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES PURELY ASTRONOMICAL TIDE Oyarvide Station

10 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES CURRENT VELOCITIES Records by Hidrovía S.A.

11 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES STORM SURGE Oyarvide station, astronomical tide filtered out (November, 1989)

12 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES STORM SURGE Buenos Aires station, including astronomical tide (May, 2000)

13 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES COMPARISON OF MEAN WATER LEVEL Buenos Aires, decade 1990 (present)

14 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL Buenos Aires 19901991 19931994

15 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES COMPARISON WITH TOPEX DATA Mean Summer conditions

16 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES COMPARISON WITH TOPEX DATA Mean Winter conditions

17 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES WATER LEVEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION CURVE Buenos Aires, decade 1990 (present)

18 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION Buenos Aires 1990 1991 19931994

19 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RECURRENCE OF EXTREME WATER LEVELS Buenos Aires

20 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FLOOD RISK MAPS

21 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FLOOD RISK MAPS

22 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FLOOD RISK MAPS (Re, Menéndez & Ludueña 2004)

23 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES FUTURE SCENARIOS OF SEA LEVEL RISE

24 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES PREDICTION OF MEAN WATER LEVEL Buenos Aires

25 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE 2030

26 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE 2070

27 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE Summer 2070

28 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE Fall 2070

29 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE Winter 2070

30 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE Spring 2070

31 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES PREDICTION OF WATER LEVEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION Buenos Aires

32 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RECURRENCE OF EXTREME WATER LEVELS Buenos Aires

33 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS 2030

34 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS 2030

35 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS 2070

36 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

37 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

38 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

39 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

40 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

41 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

42 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

43 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

44 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

45 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

46 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

47 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES RISK MAPS

48 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SALINITY DISTRIBUTION (Guerrero et al. 1997)

49 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES DOMAIN MODEL RPP-3D (Kind & Menéndez 2004)

50 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL RPP-3D Spatial domain = 575 x 487.5 km Spatial step = 2,5 km Grid : 230 x 195 x 8 Temporal step = 4 s (2D) and 320 s (3D) Bound. Cond. Ocean : Tidal wave from RPP-2D Bound. Cond. Tributaries : Discharge Wind : Field distribution

51 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES WIND FIELD Mean conditions Summer Winter

52 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES COMPARISON RPP-3D vs. RPP-2D

53 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MODEL RPP-3D Comparison measurement-simulation (Winter) Surface Bottom

54 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MODEL RPP-3D Comparison measurement-simulation (Summer) Surface Bottom

55 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MODEL RPP-3D Longitudinal cut Comparison measurement-simulation (Winter)

56 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES MODEL RPP-3D Longitudinal cut Comparison measurement-simulation (Summer)

57 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SCENARIO WITH 1 m INCREASE (maximum proyection for 2100) (Winter) Surface Bottom

58 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES COMPARISON Bottom, present Bottom, +1m (Winter)

59 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SCENARIO WITH 1 m INCREASE Difference with present (Winter) Surface Bottom

60 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SCENARIO WITH 1 m INCREASE Difference with present (Summer) Surface Bottom

61 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SCENARIO WITH 4 m INCREASE (stabilization year 3000) (Winter) Surface Bottom

62 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES SCENARIO WITH 4 m INCREASE Difference with present (Winter) Surface Bottom

63 Menéndez, Re & Kind Flood risk maps & salinity front FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES Thank you...

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