1. Fossil Future World Energy Consumption and the European Energy Security in the Next Twenty Years Guest Lecture Series of the School of International Studies Università di Trento – 4 Marzo 2013 Matteo Verda, Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI) – Milano

2. What’s energy? Fossil Future – Introduction to the issue Energy is… …the capacity of a system to do work …an input for any economic activity …the sources we use …an issue among other issues

3. Energy and economic growth Fossil Future – Introduction to the issue Sources: IMF, online database and BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2013 World total European Union GDP PEC GDP Gross domestic product (GDP) and primary energy consumptions (PEC) trends (1979 = 100).

4. Primary energy consumption – World Fossil Future – Energy consumption and mix Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 Fossil fuels account for 82% (10.668 Mtoe) of World total primary energy consumption (2011).

5. Primary energy consumption – Major economies Fossil Future – Energy consumption and mix Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 (2011) 2.743 Mtoe – 88%2.189 Mtoe – 84% 1.659 Mtoe – 75% 750 Mtoe – 72%718 Mtoe – 91%461 Mtoe – 90%

6. Primary energy consumption – Breakdown Fossil Future – Energy consumption and mix Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 (2011) Energy mix breakdown: China, USA and EU (Mtoe).

7. EU energy policy: targets Fossil Future – The EU’s place in the World 2020 targets 20% share of energy from renewable sources (national) 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels 2030 targets (proposed) 27% share of energy from renewable sources (EU level) 40% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels

8. EU’s share of World total consumption – Breakdown Fossil Future – The EU’s place in the World Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 (2011) Note: EU is the largest economy in the World (17,3 T$ - 23%), preceding the US (16,7 T$ - 22%) and China (8,9 T$ - 12%) (2013, IMF).

9. EU and World energy consumption: forecasts Fossil Future – The EU’s place in the World In 2030, fossil fuels are bound to account for two third of the EU energy consumption and for more that three quarters of the World total energy consumption. Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013

10. EU’s share of World total consumption: 2030 forecasts Fossil Future – The EU’s place in the World Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 -4 p.p. Variation 2011-2030 -4 p.p.-3 p.p.-15 p.p.-2 p.p.-5 p.p.-2 p.p.

11. EU energy policy: the carbon issue and the European targets Fossil Future – The carbon issue Carbon issue Supposed climate change Supposed causation link between carbon emissions and climate change Action pattern: reduction of carbon emissions European targets 2020 : 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels 2030 : 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels

12. EU emissions and future targets Fossil Future – The carbon issue Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 EU and World carbon emissions: current levels and forecasted trends (Mt CO 2 ). European Union World total

13. EU’s share of World carbon emissions: forecasts Fossil Future – The carbon issue Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 EU’s share of carbon emissions: current levels and forecasted trends (Mt CO 2 ).

14. EU carbon emissions vs. major economies emissions Fossil Future – The carbon issue Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 EU’s share of carbon emissions compared with other main economies (Mt CO 2 ).

15. Carbon emissions change (2011-2030): EU vs. major economies Fossil Future – The carbon issue Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 Expected emissions change (Mt CO 2 ).

16. Reduction vs. mitigation Fossil Future – The carbon issue Mitigation Mitigation is the effort to reduce loss of life and property by lessening the impact of disasters. Mitigation is taking action now—before the next disaster—to reduce human and financial consequences later. Reduction Reduction is the effort to act now on the causal factors in order to reduc e a probable outcome in the future.

17. Thank you! Contacts Matteo Verda, Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI), Milano mail: matteo.verda@unipv.it blog: www.sicurezzaenergetica.it Twitter: @matteoverda Linkedin: Linkedin/in/matteoverda

18. Addendum – Ukraine

19. Russia export routes and Ukrainian supply Ukraine2012 Consumption53 Bcm Production20 Bcm Imports33 Bcm Gas share of energy mix36% PipelineMax capacity Nord Stream55 Bcm/y Yamal – Europe35 Bcm/y Ukraine pipeline system100 Bcm/y Blue Stream16 Bcm/y Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2013 (approx.) In 2013, Russian exports to Central and Wester Europe amounted to 153 Gmc/c. Addendum – Ukrainian crisis

20. European countries vulnerability CountryDependenceMain route Hungaryhigh (>50%)Ukrainian p.s. Czech Republichigh (>50%)Ukrainian p.s. Bulgariatotal (100%)Ukrainian p.s. Polandhigh (>50%)Yamal - Europe Slovakiatotal (100%)Ukrainian p.s. Estoniatotal (100%)direct Finlandtotal (100%)direct Latviatotal (100%)direct Lithuaniatotal (100%)Belarus Sources: BP and Eurogas Addendum – Ukrainian crisis

21. Italy – Diversification of the pipeline system

22. Italy – Structurally and seasonally low demand Italian natural gas demand is structurally and seasonally low (Bcm). Sources: Snam Rete Gas and Ministero dello sviluppo economico Addendum – Ukrainian crisis imports production winter summer