1. Electric System Reliability in a Post SONGS World

2. Topics for Today What is “The Grid?” Things that affect reliability Renewables and reliability The Need for dispatchable Local Generation

3. 3 Preliminary Points Generation output must match demand We operate at 60 Cycles PS. If demand causes a drop to 59.6, we drop load. Impacts to any part of the system will affect our ability to deliver power Some impacts can be anticipated, others can be hard to predict Time for recovery following an event depends on the nature of the impact Time of year/weather will play a part on what we do for recovery since demand varies

4. 4 Generation Hydro Generation Old Steam Generation Combined Cycle Single Cycle Gas Turbines Renewable Small Hydro Wind Geothermal or biomass Solar

5. Large Hydro: Not Considered renewable 5

6. Small Hydro Generation RPS Standard Generally less than 30 MW Many of these are run of the river: No reservoir

7. 7 Natural Gas Fired Generation Combined Cycle Start with a gas turbine (think big jet engine) This spins one generator Exhaust gases (which are real hot) are used to heat water into steam which in turn spins more generators Not well suited for peaker power Peakers Single Cycle Gas Turbine Spins a generator

8. 8 Renewable Wind Wind must be within a certain range of velocity Peak Wind Generation in SCE territory is midnight to 6:00 a.m. Solar Only works in sunlight Requires large land area Project 500 MW on 4500 acres Geothermal Small Hydro Storage technology is needed to deal with the variable nature of renewable generation

9. Transmission Transmitting large amounts of power over long distances Different voltages 500 KV 230KV 66KV Some older systems 115KV 33KV

10. Substations Grid Control Outages Reduce voltages from transmission levels down to distribution levels Components: Switch Yard Transformers Reactors or condensers Capacitors

11. Distribution Delivers power to customers 12 KV Original system design was for the power to flow in one direction

12. Why can’t we just have generation in the desert? Loss of transmission will result in blackouts Transmission lines are only capable of carrying a certain amount of power Regulatory Restrictions Physical Limitations There must be balance in the system with a certain amount of generation in the load center

13. Impacts to Reliability Impacts to Transmission Fires Floods Wind Impacts at Substations Catastrophic Failures Transformers Collateral Damage Long Term Reconstruction Environmental damage Capacitors Potential PCB issue Distribution Wind and Fire

14. Oh Boy

15. Renewables can create problems in reliability Small Hydro=run of the river…not reliable when the streams are down Geothermal: Not enough Solar: Intermittent Wind: Intermittent

16. What is a mother, or SCE, to do? SONGS is out. This can’t be fixed

17. When does 2200=500 SONGS was about 2200 MW of generation Capacity It was baseload generation which means it ran at near 100% capacity factor But…for the near term, SCE is looking at a need for around 500 MWs of gas fired generation in Los Angeles area. This is a contingency back up to… Preferred resources of Energy Efficiency, DR, Storage

18. Factors that resulted in the drop Energy efficiency programs Demand response Transmission upgrades There has been a substantial increase in renewable generation which is, to a certain extent, offsetting the need for fossil generation. But remember there are problems created by renewables This only a near term forecast; long term we will need greater capacity California Independent System Operator is looking at at a possible need for over 3000 MWs So what?

19. There is still a need for new gas fired generation This generation is dispatchable It can fill in the “gaps” created by renewable generation Also needed for voltage support But we need some reform of the NSR Requirements In the South Coast Air Basin we are in attainment for PM10 Offsets are still required by SCAQMD Regulations Cannot change that unless there is a change to SB 288 This will require a programmatic approach that is achievable: attractive to the environmental groups There are no easy solutions but it will require thoughtful ideas