1. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 1 Small Area Estimation for Monitoring the MDGs at the Subnational Level by Candido J. Astrologo, Jr.Jessamyn O. Encarnacion Director, National Statistical Information CenterChief, Social Sectors B DivisionNational Statistical Coordination Board Workshop on MDG Monitoring 14-16 January 2009, Bangkok, Thailand

2. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 2 Outline of Presentation I.Introduction II.Small Area Estimation (SAE) Methodology III.Other Applications of SAE IV.Concluding remarks and recommendations

3. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 3 I. Introduction Philippine official poverty statistics are released every 3 years at the regional and provincial levels of disaggregation. All official regional poverty estimates (for 2000, 2003 and 2006) are reliable (having coefficients of variation (CVs) of at most 10%). In the case of the official provincial poverty estimates, 28 out of 84* or 33% of the provinces are reliable with CVs less than 10%, while 46% have acceptable CVs between 10 and 20 and 21% have CVs over 20%. No official municipal or city level estimates are generated

4. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 4 I. Introduction In 2005, the NSCB with funding assistance from World Bank ASEM Trust Fund, conducted a poverty mapping project using small area estimation methodology as part of the Philippine Statistical System’s continuing effort to respond to the growing need for lower level disaggregation of information on the poor. 2000 Census of Population and Housing 2000 Family Income and Expenditure Survey 2000 Labor Force Survey 2000 poverty estimates for all the municipalities in the country were released in November 2005 by the NSCB. 2000 City and Municipal Level Poverty Statistics based on SAE

5. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 5 II. Small Area Estimation Methodology

6. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 6 II. Small Area Estimation Methodology Aim Produce provincial-, municipal- and city-level estimates of poverty incidence, gap and severity based on official income-based provincial poverty lines by merging information from census and surveys

7. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 7 Data Requirements Survey containing target variable ( Y ), independent variables ( X ) Census containing X (but not Y) II. Small Area Estimation Methodology

8. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 8 Two types of data sources: 1.Household surveys - include a detailed income and/or expenditure module - however, due to relatively small sample size, collected information is usually only representative for broad areas of the country, e.g., regions Data sources for the Philippines: 2000 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) and Labor Force Survey (LFS) II. Small Area Estimation Methodology

9. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 9 Two types of data sources (cont’d) : 2.Census data - available for all households and can provide reliable estimates at highly disaggregated levels such as cities and municipalities - however, census data do not contain income/expenditure information necessary to estimate poverty Data source for the Philippines: 2000 Census of Population and Housing (CPH) II. Small Area Estimation Methodology

10. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 10 Merge information from the two types of data sources to come up with small area poverty estimates “Borrow strength” from the much more detailed coverage of the census data to supplement the direct measurements of the survey Main idea II. Small Area Estimation Methodology

11. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 11 Use the household survey data to estimate a model of per capita income (Y) as a function of variables that are common to both the household survey and the census (X’s). Use the resulting estimated equation/model to predict per capita income for each household in the census. The estimated household-level per capita income are then aggregated for small areas, such as cities and municipalities. Basic procedure II. Small Area Estimation Methodology

12. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 12 a. Common variables from FIES/LFS and CPH (18) - Household dwelling characteristics (7) - Family characteristics (11) b.Municipal-level census means (25) Candidate variables (X’s) II. Small Area Estimation Methodology

13. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 13 Regression Modeling Regression models were constructed that estimated the income of households based on household level and community-level characteristics. II. Small Area Estimation Methodology

14. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 14 2000 poverty estimates for each city/municipality, province (urban and rural): - poverty incidence - poverty gap - severity of poverty Production of small area estimates II. Small Area Estimation Methodology

15. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 15 2000 Census of Population and Housing 2000 Family Income and Expenditure Survey 2000 Labor Force Survey HOW to update these city and municipal level estimates? 2003 Family Income and Expenditure Survey 2003 Labor Force Survey 2000 Census of Population and Housing 2000 SAE 2003 SAE Time-invariant (i.e., variables that may be considered “stable” over time) II. Small Area Estimation Methodology

16. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 16 Features of the 2000 and 2003 SAE methodologies used Features2000 SAE2003 SAE 1. Data used2000 FIES 2000 LFS 2000 CPH 2003 FIES 2003 LFS 2000 CPH Identifying time- invariant variables 2. Variables usedConsistent across all data sets Consistent AND TIME- INVARIANT across all data sets 2. Models developed National modelRegional models II. Small Area Estimation Methodology

17. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 17 IV. Other Applications of SAE Proportion of households not meeting energy adequacy at the provincial level Provincial prevalence of underweight among 6-10 year old children District (or barangay) level estimation of the proportion of underweight Filipino children aged 0-5 years Proportion of stunted 0-5 year-old children at the provincial level Provincial prevalence of hypertension among adults Labor and employment statistics at the provincial level Other indicators where SAE technique was applied in the Philippines

18. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 18 IV. Other Applications of SAE The 2000 small area poverty estimates released by NSCB in 2005 were already used by DSWD in their Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program. The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) used the municipal poverty incidences in identifying priority municipalities for KALAHI-CIDSS (e.g., Samar) NNC and DSWD used the data in December 2007 to identify priority households for the Pamaskong Handog of GMA. The SAE were used by the Department of Agriculture (DA) as one criterion in the identification of target sites of the Cordillera Highland Agricultural Resources Management Project (CHARMP II). Relevance/Actual policy use of 2000 SAPE

19. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 19 IV. Other Applications of SAE Relevance/Actual policy use of 2000 SAPE Regional KALAHI Convergence Group (RKCG) used the estimates to serve as one of the bases in identifying its convergence municipalities throughout the region (e.g., MIMAROPA). National Nutrition Council (NNC) Region VIII used the SAE in assessing the nutritional situation of municipalities in the region in October 2007. Results were used as input to determine target enrolment for health insurance sponsored programs of PhilHealth in 2007. Leyte: SAE results were used to determine priority municipalities in Leyte in May 2007 for: (i) sponsorship program for schooling of indigent children; and (ii) for micro-enterprise development (MED) projects. The Department of Energy also expressed interest in the SAE results as a possible reference for the installation of bio-diesel.

20. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 20 IV. Other Applications of SAE Relevance/Actual policy use of 2003 SAPE The 2003 intercensal small area poverty estimates was also used by the DSWD as basis for prioritizing target households for their proposed National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction (NHTSPR) The Department of Energy also expressed interest in the SAE results as a possible reference for the installation of bio-diesel.

21. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 21 IV. Concluding remarks and recommendations Small area estimation techniques can be used successfully to produce poverty estimates at the provincial and municipal levels. The estimates at provincial level were in general consistent with, but more precise than the direct estimates obtained from the survey data alone ( official methodology ), with an average SE (CV) of less than 2% (5%) The precision of the municipal level estimates was more or less similar to that of the official provincial level estimates

22. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 22 IV. Concluding remarks and recommendations Possible generation of SAE for other indicators critical in decision- and policy-making such as: a) Unemployment – not available for city/municipal levels b) Infant and maternal health c) Post-census populations (alternative pop’n. projections) d) Non-income component indicators of the HDI ( i.e., life expectancy, functional literacy, and basic education participation rate )

23. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 23 IV. Concluding remarks and recommendations Generation of poverty statistics for basic sectors – not available for: 1) city/municipal levels and 2) some sectors, where direct estimation of poverty statistics is not possible due to data constraints. Generation of poverty maps at lower levels of disaggregation - poverty estimates overlaid and/or combined with information on education, health, access to infrastructure, environment, crime, among others.

24. Workshop on MDG Monitoring CJA_JOE/14-16Jan2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 24 Maraming Salamat po! URL: http://www.nscb.gov.ph e-mail: info@nscb.gov.ph