1. locusts & systems rain, temperature, wind solutions & challenges locusts & systems rain, temperature, wind solutions & challenges Meteorological information for locust control operations Keith Cressman Locust Forecasting Officer 19 April 2005 Keith Cressman Locust Forecasting Officer 19 April 2005

2. Desert Locust countries 2 / 14 Invasion area = 32 million km 2 (20% of world land mass) 25 key (front-line) countries Invasion area = 32 million km 2 (20% of world land mass) 25 key (front-line) countries summer winter spring Recession area = 16 million km 2

3. Desert Locust biology 3 / 14 summer (W Africa) 25d 14d 30 days (2-3 months: July-Nov) spring (NW Africa) 150 days 35 days 35 days (2.5-7 months: Oct-Mar / Apr-Jun) summer (W Africa) 25d 14d 30 days (2-3 months: July-Nov) spring (NW Africa) 150 days 35 days 35 days (2.5-7 months: Oct-Mar / Apr-Jun) adults invade egg hopper a e h

4. Grouping & concentration = increasing threat Grouping & concentration = increasing threat transiens Individual locusts = no threat Individual locusts = no threat solitarious Desert Locust phase change 4 / 14 gregarious hopper bands & swarms (gregarious) = THREAT!

5. Desert Locust migration 5 / 14 recessions: Sahel (summer) Outbreaks/upsurges/plagues: Sahel (summer) + NWA (spring) recessions: Sahel (summer) Outbreaks/upsurges/plagues: Sahel (summer) + NWA (spring) summer winter spring

6. Desert Locust programmes 6 / 14 National (Locust Control Centres) Outputs assess situation forecasts (short) plan surveys and control ops field data 10-day sit reps monthly bulletins Regional (FAO Commissions) national strengthening International (FAO HQ) assess situation forecast (6 weeks – 6 months) advise NLCCs / donors monthly bulletins interim updates warnings

7. Desert Locust information flow 7 / 14 International - National - Field - International - National - Field - FAO Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS) Locust Control Centre survey and control teams FAO Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS) Locust Control Centre survey and control teams ( RAMSES data files, reports ) ( forms, eLocust data files )

8. Direct two-way communication National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS Direct two-way communication National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS Desert Locust network 8 / 14 FAO DLIS

9. Weather data and Desert Locusts 9 / 14 DataActualForecastUse Rainfalltotal daily decadal monthly +1 day +10 day +30 day seasonal breeding migration planning Temperaturemin/max daily decadal monthly +1 day +10 day +30 day seasonal maturation migration planning Winddirection speed height 12 hmigration

10. Weather thresholds 10 / 14 > 25 mm in two consecutive months unusual events > 20°C (egg & hopper development) > 20°C (take-off) > 18°C (sustained flight) < 10 m/s (take-off) 10 - 2000 m (migration heights) > 25 mm in two consecutive months unusual events > 20°C (egg & hopper development) > 20°C (take-off) > 18°C (sustained flight) < 10 m/s (take-off) 10 - 2000 m (migration heights) Rain Temp Wind

11. Tools available to NLCCs 11 / 14 rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites SPOT vegetation imagery RAMSES GIS rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites SPOT vegetation imagery RAMSES GIS

12. Primary rainfall stations (GTS) Senegal Mauritania Mali Niger Chad Burkina Faso Algeria Tunisia Morocco 7 rainfall stations in 1.1 million km 2 12 / 14 summer breeding area Tamanrassett Agadez B.B. Mokhtar Menaka Gao Tessalit Kidal 1300 km 900 km

13. Current weaknesses 13 / 14 poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors NLCC does not make use of data FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products weak NLCC / NMHS link poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors NLCC does not make use of data FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products weak NLCC / NMHS link  increase rains stations?  reduce transmission errors?  indicate data requirements?  use forecast products?  regional workshop  increase rains stations?  reduce transmission errors?  indicate data requirements?  use forecast products?  regional workshop Potential solutions poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors NLCC does not make use of data FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products weak NLCC / NMHS link poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors NLCC does not make use of data FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products weak NLCC / NMHS link

14. This week’s challenges …  improve NMHS support to NLCCs  provide useful weather data  improve weather forecasts  improve NMHS support to NLCCs  provide useful weather data  improve weather forecasts Keith Cressman FAO Locust Forecasting Officer