1. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Markus Blesl TIMES – EE27 ETSAP semi-annual Workshop 24. November 2004 in Florence

2. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER TIMES – EE (European Electricity Generation) 27 region model (EU 25, N, CH) Detailed power generation sector (CO 2 sequestration and capture options, CHP included) based on a IER power plant database with 25,000 units included Country specific differences for characterisation of new power plants Detailed electricity exchange balances based on ETSO statistics Country specific load curves based on UTCE statistics Consideration of CHP expansion options Renewable potential (onshore wind, offshore wind, geothermal, biomass, biogas, hydro (small, middle, large)) Country specific availability factors for renewable Country specific heat and electricity demand reduction options GHG: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O included Pollutants: NO X, SO X, particles Time horizon 1990-2030, 5 year periods, 12 time segments per year

3. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Model of the European Electricity market (incl. CHP) – TIMES-EE

4. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Assumptions Taxes included in fuel prices Different country specific classes of prices for biomass (including different types of wood, plant wood, energy crops) and biogas depending Country specific assumptions about the maximum / minimum of extraction capacities and use of lignite New nuclear is possible in France, Czech Republic (after 2015), Finland, UK (on a max. constant level), Poland and Swiss

5. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Energy price assumption on power plant level (Euro pro GJ) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 199019952000200520102015202020252030 Energy price on power plant level in [Euro/GJ] LigniteCoalOilGas

6. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Energy price differences on power plant level compared with Germany (tax included) in Euro/GJ Light Fuel Oil Heavy Fuel OilNatural GasSteam Coal France-0,260,00 -0,23 Austria0,07-0,190,180,00 Belgium / Lux-0,970,16 -1,30 0,03 Switzerland-2,680,00 Czech Republic-0,79-1,43-0,18-0,93 Denmark-1,030,00 Sweden-2,550,00 Poland-1,16-1,300,00-0,29 Netherlands1,401,80-0,740,00 Finland1,562,32-0,56-0,17 Greece3,411,33 Ireland-0,051,22-0,93-0,45 Italy3,480,19-0,510,11 Luxembourg0,64 Portugal1,39-0,40 Spain6,053,640,34 UK0,461,54-1,15-0,03 0,34 -1,30 -0,51

7. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Policy – CO 2 target “Soft landing” or “Flexible Mechanism”

8. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Scenario definition Reference case (REF) CO2 - Emission target “Soft landing” for EU15 and national targets (SOFT) CO2 - Emission target “Soft landing” for EU27 (FLEX)

9. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Net electricity generation by energy carriers in EU25

10. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Net electricity generation by different renewable sources in EU25

11. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Net electricity generation based on renewable in Europe

12. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Net electricity generation based on hard coal in Europe

13. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Net electricity generation based on gas in Europe

14. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Net – electricity balance for the different countries Import countries Export countries

15. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER CO 2 Emission in the different scenarios in EU 15 790 890 990 1090 1190 1290 199019952000200520102015202020252030 Jahr CO 2 emission electricity and heat generation in [Mio. t CO 2 ] REFSOFTFLEXTarget EU15

16. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Differences between CO 2 Emission „soft landing“ and national target (buyer/seller)

17. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Marginal cost of CO 2 reduction Switch from coal to gas

18. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Conclusions The differences between Kyoto – target and the emissions of the electricity and heat sector are not so big. If all European countries will include in the emission trading the certificate prices fall especially because of the hot air from Poland. With the Kyoto – target the renewable electricity generation target for the EU25 will not be automatically achieved. With a common electricity market, a free certificate market, a harmonised tax system the European emission reduction and the national renewable targets can be achieved in the most cost-effective manner leading to the lowest electricity prices.

19. Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER