1. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Research Lecture : Basic Statistics

2. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH FACEP Professor Department of Emergency Medicine University of Illinois College of Medicine Chicago, IL

3. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Attending Physician Emergency Medicine University of Illinois Hospital Our Lady of the Resurrection Hospital Chicago, IL

4. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Disclosures FERNE Chairman and President FERNE Chairman and President ACEP Clinical Policy Committee ACEP Clinical Policy Committee ACEP Scientific Review Committee ACEP Scientific Review Committee No individual financial disclosures No individual financial disclosures

5. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP A Sound Statistical Approach

6. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Basic Statistics: The Three Things You Need to Know In Order to Complete Your Project

7. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Three Things to Know What measurement? What measurement? What question? What question? How to report your results How to report your results

8. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Other Things to Know What data is needed? What data is needed? Basic statistical tests Basic statistical tests How to report? How to report?

9. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Two Measurements Proportion Proportion Mean Mean

10. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Two Questions What is the number? What is the number? Do two groups differ? Do two groups differ?

11. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Proportion Measurement What % of patients had an outcome? What % of patients had an outcome? Divides a group into subgroups (lived, died) Divides a group into subgroups (lived, died)

12. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Mean Measurement Describes a characteristic of a patient group Describes a characteristic of a patient group (mean age) (mean age) Provides an overview Provides an overview

13. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP What is the Number? Describes one group Describes one group Tells a story Tells a story No comparisons No comparisons

14. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP What #? Confidence Interval Can we believe the results? Can we believe the results? Was the process acceptable? Was the process acceptable? Are the results reproducible? Are the results reproducible?

15. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Confidence Interval 95% CI 95% CI Provides a range Provides a range The “real” number is in this range The “real” number is in this range

16. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Do Two Groups Differ? Compares two groups Compares two groups Attempts to detect differences Attempts to detect differences Relates outcomes to different interventions Relates outcomes to different interventions

17. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Groups Differ? Hypothesis Test Null hypothesis, H o Null hypothesis, H o Alternate hypothesis, H A Alternate hypothesis, H A Are the groups the same (H o ) or different (H A )? Are the groups the same (H o ) or different (H A )?

18. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Hypothesis Test We reject H o We reject H o The groups aren’t the same The groups aren’t the same We then accept that they differ We then accept that they differ

19. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Using Statistics 1) Pick your number type (Proportion or mean) 2) Decide what you will do (Describe or compare) (CI or hypothesis test) 3) Do the stat analysis 4) Report the results

20. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Reporting Proportions: 95% Confidence Interval In patients with T-wave inversion on their ED EKG, 29 (+ 3)% will develop an AMI during hospitalization (95% CI 26-32%). In patients with T-wave inversion on their ED EKG, 29 (+ 3)% will develop an AMI during hospitalization (95% CI 26-32%).

21. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Reporting Proportions: Hypothesis Test There was a two-fold greater 5 year survival rate in drug A patients vs. drug B patients (30% vs. 15%, p<.001) There was a two-fold greater 5 year survival rate in drug A patients vs. drug B patients (30% vs. 15%, p<.001)

22. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Reporting Means: 95% Confidence Interval The mean CPK-MB in ED T-wave inversion AMI patients was 12 + 6 (95% CI=9-15). The mean CPK-MB in ED T-wave inversion AMI patients was 12 + 6 (95% CI=9-15).

23. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Reporting Means: Hypothesis Test Drug A patients had a 50% greater survival time than that of drug B patients Drug A patients had a 50% greater survival time than that of drug B patients 1.5 + 0.7 years vs. 1.0 + 0.5 years, p<.001. 1.5 + 0.7 years vs. 1.0 + 0.5 years, p<.001.

24. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Statistics: Proportions Chi-square Chi-square Fisher’s Exact test Fisher’s Exact test Logistic regression analysis Logistic regression analysis

25. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Statistics: Means Students’s t-test Students’s t-test ANOVA ANOVA Linear regression analysis Linear regression analysis

26. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Conclusions Simple questions Simple stats Clinically relevant reporting of the results and statistics is essential Complex analyses often not needed

27. Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP Recommendations Keep it simple Enjoy the statistics process Report in a way that will lead to greater understanding and clinical impact Improve patient care

28. Thank you. www.ferne.org ferne@ferne.org edsloan@uic.edu 312 413 7490 www.ferne.org edsloan@uic.edu www.ferne.org edsloan@uic.edu ferne_2007_research_lecture_sloan_basic_statistics_111207_finalcd 12/19/2014 11:02 AM Edward P. Sloan, MD, MPH, FACEP