1. Potential for hatchery-wild reproductive interaction from a segregated steelhead hatchery in Washington State Michael Dauer Todd Seamons, Lorenz Hauser, Tom Quinn, Kerry Naish Presented at the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission 10 th West Coast Steelhead Meeting March 7-9, 2006

2. Hatchery Scientific Review Group

3. Hatchery Reform Models

4. ` Question What risk is involved in the ‘segregated’ hatchery model? Does the mode of segregation (return timing) keep hatchery and wild stocks temporally segregated? Are the hatchery fish reproducing in the wild? Hatchery Wild

5. Forks Creek Hatchery

6. Segregated by return timing Adipose fins clipped to differentiate pops Performed parentage 1996-2005 Scales analyzed 1996-2001

7. Separation by Adipose Fin Clipping Animalpicturesarchive.com Water Flow Hatchery Willapa River Forks Creek Water Flow

8. Animalpicturesarchive.com Water Flow Willapa River Forks Creek Water Flow Separation by Adipose Fin Clipping Hatchery

9. Animalpicturesarchive.com Water Flow Willapa River Forks Creek Water Flow Separation by Adipose Fin Clipping Hatchery X

10. Animalpicturesarchive.com Water Flow Willapa River Forks Creek Water Flow Separation by Adipose Fin Clipping Hatchery X X

11. Separation by Spawn Timing

12. Todd Seamons, unpublished data

13. Separation by Spawn Timing

14. ` Question What risk is involved in the ‘segregated’ hatchery model? Does the mode of segregation (return timing) keep hatchery and wild stocks temporally segregated? Are the hatchery fish reproducing in the wild? <5% breeders in wild Hatchery Wild Ford, 2002; Mobrand et al, 2005

15. Scale Analysis

16. Do these stocks differ at age of return? Ocean Scale Analysis T-test p=0.013; df=88

17. Do these stocks differ at age of return? T-test p<0.001; df=88 Freshwater Scale Analysis Photo Courtesy of Tom Quinn

18. Do these stocks differ at age of return? Rate of Iteroparity (Repeat Spawning)

19. N Wild, t N Hatchery, t Iteroparity in time=t tells us about N Hatchery fish in wild, t-1 N Hatchery fish in wild, t N total fish in wild, t Goal: <5% Ford, 2002; Mobrand et al, 2005 Predicting H/W ratio in the wild environment

20. N Hatchery fish in wild, t N Total fish in wild, t Goal: <5% 10% 130

21. Predicting H/W ratio in the wild environment Goal: <5% 20% 160 N Hatchery fish in wild, t N Total fish in wild, t

22. Predicting H/W ratio in the wild environment Redd Counts (WDFW in Mackey et al. 2001)

23. Predicting H/W ratio in the wild environment Goal: <5% 20% 160 % N Hatchery fish in wild, t N Total fish in wild, t

24. 44.8% Predicting H/W ratio in the wild environment Conservative estimates: Repeat spawner success = 10% Wild Sampling Success = 20% N Hatchery fish in wild, t N Wild population, t Goal: <5%

25. Predicting H/W ratio in the wild environment Bottom Line: Unlikely that we are meeting the <5% goal of the segregated hatchery model

26. Conclusions Segregated hatchery model requires minimal reproductive interactionSegregated hatchery model requires minimal reproductive interaction There is potential for considerable interaction due to iteroparity in hatchery fishThere is potential for considerable interaction due to iteroparity in hatchery fish

27. Conclusions However – These ratios do not elucidate the true ecological or evolutionary impactHowever – These ratios do not elucidate the true ecological or evolutionary impact Mackey et al. 2001 showed little spatial overlapMackey et al. 2001 showed little spatial overlap Not N e, just census estimateNot N e, just census estimate Only provide us an upper estimate of the potential impactOnly provide us an upper estimate of the potential impact

28. Future Directions Reproductive success of hatchery fish in wildReproductive success of hatchery fish in wild Smolt samplesSmolt samples Rate of evolution in hatcheryRate of evolution in hatchery Examine life history of putative hybridsExamine life history of putative hybrids

29. Acknowledgments Committee – Kerry Naish, Tom Quinn, Lorenz Hauser Peer Support – Todd Seamons, Jason Cope, Jim Franks, fishMMBL, Quinn Group Scale Reading – Kate Myers, Jan Armstrong, Nancy Davis, and Trey Walker (High Seas Salmon Program) Hatchery Staff – Rob Allen, Kevin Flowers, Dave Shores, Merle Hash, Jenny Allen Lab Help – Lyndsay Newton, Duy Mai, Louise Baxter Funding – BPA, Wild Steelhead Coalition

31. Do these stocks differ at age of return?

32. Do these stocks differ at fitness related traits? T-test ** p<0.001 * p<0.05

33. ` Question What reproductive risk is involved in the ‘segregated’ hatchery model? Do segregated hatcheries keep hatchery and wild stocks reproductively isolated? Less than 5% wild spawners Hatchery Wild Ford, 2002; Mobrand et al, 2005