1. A Future Oriented Approach to China-Japan Relations
For
A talk at Sagamore Institute, 26 March 2013
Shunji Cui
Fulbright Scholar-in-Residence,
Marian University

2. A Future Oriented Approach to China-Japan Relations
The Current State of China-Japan Relations – Tensions over East China Sea Disputes
Why It Has Proved to be So Difficult?
‘The Drums of War’ or Can it be Avoided?
How do China and Japan Move towards a Future Oriented Direction?

4. Fishing Platform/Pinnacle Islands 钓鱼台列屿 / 尖閣列島 Diaoyu/Senkaku (D/S) Islands
A chain of tiny 8 islands
5 uninhabitable islands,
3 barren rocks
All are volcanic formations from the Neocene age
Largest Island
钓鱼台Diaoyutai (S)
鱼钓岛Uotsurisima(J)
surface area: 3.5 skm.

5. Geographical Location
120 nautical miles northeast of Taiwan
200 nm east of PRC
200 nm southwest of Naha, Okinawa

6. UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,1982
Territorial Waters– 12nm
The sovereign territory of the state
But foreign ships (both military and civilian) are allowed innocent passage through it
Exclusive Economic Zone—200nm
Control of all economic resources, including fishing, mining, oil exploration, and any pollution of those resources.

7. D/S Island Disputes: Downward Spirals?
: Japan’s “nationalization” of 3 of the Islands
Followed by Chinese maritime surveillance ships entering into disputed waters – even within 12nm
Small aircraft of China’s State Oceanic Bureau flew into airspace over the D/S
Japan deploying Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS)
Global Times (China) argued: “we need to prepare for the worst”, if Japan not be deterred.
Situation worse than 2005  Possible War?

8. 2012 over Islands row

9. Why It Has Proved to be So Difficult?
Conflictual Claims
Political & Emotional

10. Japan’s Claim: I
1885~: 10-y survey, terra nullius (land without owner)
: Meiji Cabinet’s decision to incorporate the islands into Japanese territory  actual control.
: Placed under the administration of Ishigaki, Yaeyama District, Okinawa Prefecture
: Signing the Treaty of Shimonoseki
1895-5: the Treaty came to effect.

11. Japan's Claim: After WWII
1951: The San Francisco Treaty (US-J)
Japan renounced claims to a number of territories and islands including Taiwan
the Nansei Shoto (Nansei islands) came under US trusteeship
1971: the Okinawa reversion deal
Nansei Shoto returned to Japan
The islands are under Japan’s control
No disputes over the Islands
China is just for oil

12. China’s Claim: Historical 1
Not terra nullius , but have been part of its territory since ancient times.
Historical Records:
1430, 顺风相送(Fair winds for escort), earliest, a non-official Chinese navigational record.
1534, 使琉球录, earliest official record of the Imperial Envoy's Visit to Ryūkyū.
Those islands served as important fishing grounds administered by the province of Taiwan.

13. China’s Claim: Historical 2
1874: Japan took Ryukyu Islands
Japan took Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa) from China by force when Chinese Qing Dynasty was involved in several wars with other foreign countries
However, the Diaoyu Islands still remained under the administration of Taiwan, a part of China.
1895: The Treaty of Shimonoseki
After being defeated by Japan in the Sino-Japan War ( ), China ceded Taiwan to Japan under the Shimonoseki Treaty.
As a part of Taiwan, the Diaoyutai Islands belonged to Japan at that time.

14. China’s Claim: after WWII
Cairo Declaration (1943) & Potsdam Proclamation (1945)
Taiwan was returned to China at the end of World War II
The Japanese government accepted the terms that stated in these documents "...that all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria and Formosa(Taiwan) shall be restored to the Republic of China.”
Thus, deny the effects of 1951 San Francisco Treaty (US-J).

15. Difficulty II: Sovereignty and Beyond
Japan:
Actual Control – No sovereign Issue
Concern of Okinawa
China’s Rise, perceived assertiveness, and threat
China:
Emotional – reminding its weakness and humiliation, and Historical injustice in modern history.
Vulnerable to Nationalist sentiments
US Asian Policy

16. Shared Interests in Deescalating Their Relations
Economic Impacts (by the end of 2012):
Nissan’s sales in China have fallen 5.3 % to 1.18 million units,
Toyota’s by 4.9 % to 840,000 units,
Japanese direct investment in China fell by almost a third – (ASEAN looking for opportunity)
Tourism –( )
ANA: nearly 4,000 Japanese canceled their plans to visit China.
The Japanese National Tourist Association: 20% drop in numbers visiting Japan from China

17. Japanese car sales in China in 2012
Source:
China Daily

18. Shared Willingness and Efforts
Natsuo Yamaguchi’s meeting with Xi Jinping (in Beijing, ).
The eighth Tokyo-Beijing Forum (in Tokyo, July 2, 2012).
Dialogue on D/S Island disputes (in HZ, )
The International Politics of East Asia and the East China Sea (in Hangzhou, China, December 14-15, 2012)
To Japan-China Dialogue: Toward a Future Oriented Japan-China Relationship (in Tokyo, Jnuary 23-24, 2013).
Strong calling for ‘wisdom’ in settling territorial disputes

19. What Can be Done for A Future Oriented Relations?
Managing the Disputes
Managing the Great Power Relations
Enhancing People-to-People Relations

20. 1. Managing the Disputes Understand/Accept the New Reality
China: Japan’s nationalization of Islands
Japan: existing disputes over sovereignty
Shelving the dispute & Searching for joint cooperation
Fishing; Energy
No entry into disputed area
Set up ‘hot lines’ to prepare for contingency
Establish UN Environmental Protection Areas

21. ‘Japan and China have struck a deal for the joint development of a gas field in the East China Sea, resolving a protracted bilateral dispute.’ BBC,  18 June 2008
China: Chunxiao Gas Field

22. 2. Managing the Great Power Relations
China:
Clear vision of regional/global governance
Stronger demonstration of its Peaceful rise
Japan:
Accepting China’s rise US
Policy of pivot Asia: accommodating China

23. 3. Enhancing People-to-People Relations
China-Japan: move beyond history – forward looking
Reconciliation
Kim Dae-jung examples
Constructing Friendly Relations
Cross-Strait Example
Identity among people in Taiwan

24. Thank You !!!