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Assumptions for 2005/2006 Objective Capability Determination NEPOOL PSPC Dec. 20, 2004.

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Presentation on theme: "Assumptions for 2005/2006 Objective Capability Determination NEPOOL PSPC Dec. 20, 2004."— Presentation transcript:

1 Assumptions for 2005/2006 Objective Capability Determination NEPOOL PSPC Dec. 20, 2004

2 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee2 Assumptions List AssumptionMore than 20 MW Effect on Objective Capability CapacityNo OP4 Actions 9 and 10No Minimum Operating ReserveYes Load ForecastYes Unit AvailabilityYes Demand Response ProgramsYes 5% Voltage ReductionYes Tie BenefitsYes Needs PSPC DiscussionCovered in Presentation

3 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee3 Objective Capability Assumptions Capacity –Existing capacity will be equal to those assets and ratings noted in 2005 CELT Report –Capacity additions based on ISO-NE recommended units and PSPC discussions Ridgewood Generation (8.4 MW) Berkshire Wind (15 MW) – For PSPC discussion Kendall ST 3 and CT Reactivation – For PSPC discussion –Capacity attrition to include those with RC approved 18.4 applications for deactivation or retirement

4 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee4 Objective Capability Assumptions OP-4 Actions 9 and 10 –Total of 45 MW –Verified with Operations that capacity is not enrolled in ISO-NE Demand Response Program

5 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee5 Objective Capability Assumptions Minimum Operating Reserve –OP-4 Action 12 –Modeled in Westinghouse as –200 MW –Verified with Operations (???)

6 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee6 Objective Capability Assumptions Load Forecast –2005/2006 load forecast input into the Reliability Model will be consistent with the 2005 CELT Forecast

7 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee7 Objective Capability Assumptions Unit Availability Options –5-year Average Using EFOR –Using EFORd values Adjusted EFOR values for months with missing data NERC Class Average EFORd values for months with missing data

8 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee8 Objective Capability Assumptions Preliminary Data (Jan-00 through Oct-04) Unit CategorySummer MW 04/05 OC Assumed EFOR Weighted EFOR Weighted EFORd Fossil10,133.55.765.316.73 CC2,765.41.312.444.88 New Unit CC8,072.8New Unit CC Maturity6.32 Diesel63.72.231.615.02 Jet1,869.73.263.357.08 Nuclear4,387.12.661.453.74 Hydro3,195.50.930.913.81 Total System30,487.73.803.405.52 –Pre-SMD EFORd data assumes NERC class average –Summer MW per Dec-04 SCC Report

9 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee9 Objective Capability Assumptions ISO-NE Demand Response Program - Recommended Assumptions –Only reliability programs used in determination Real-Time 30-Minute Demand Response Real-Time 2-Hour Demand Response Real-Time Profiled Response –Assets enrolled and ready to respond as of Jan. 1, 2005 will be included

10 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee10 Objective Capability Assumptions ISO-NE Demand Response Program EFOR modeling of assets based on results of August 20, 2004 performance audit –EFOR = 1 – (Interruption MW / Total Enrolled MW) ProgramLoad ZoneAssumed EFOR RT 2-hour Demand ResponseCT65% ME12% NEMA88% WCMA84%

11 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee11 Objective Capability Assumptions ProgramLoad ZoneAssumed EFOR RT 30 Minute Demand ResponseCT0% NEMA40% NH32.5% SEMEA38% VT43% WCMA100% Profiled ResponseME85.5% NEMA100% VT100% RT Price ResponseNo RT Price Response MW assumed for 2005/2006 OC Calculation ISO-NE Demand Response Program

12 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee12 Demand Response (as of November 30, 2004) * SWCT assets are included in CT values and are not included in Total

13 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee13 Objective Capability Assumptions 5% Voltage Reduction amount to be used in OC determination –For further PSPC discussion

14 12.20.2004Power Supply Planning Committee14 Objective Capability Assumptions Tie Benefits –For further PSPC discussion

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