Presentation on theme: "Mining Indaba 2009 Exxaro … Harnessing or Weathering the Storm Presentation by Ernst Venter Executive General Manager, Business Growth 10 February 2009."— Presentation transcript:
Mining Indaba 2009 Exxaro … Harnessing or Weathering the Storm Presentation by Ernst Venter Executive General Manager, Business Growth 10 February 2009
1 Contents Introduction The storm The impact Is it happening again? What will help us survive? How will the future look? What do we need in Sub-Saharan Africa … notwithstanding the storm What are the positives about this event? What is Exxaro doing? Our track record … and committed growth Conclusion
2 Introduction Exxaro, powering possibility with a sound asset base and an exciting growth portfolio Will we be able to deliver in the current global economic context? Are there even more possibilities for Exxaro in this storm? Or should we all adopt a wait and see approach?
3 Introduction to Exxaro COAL the fourth largest coal producer in South Africa, one of the largest suppliers to Eskom MINERAL SANDS one of the world's top three producers of zircon and chlorinatable TiO 2 slag BASE METALS AND INDUSTRIAL MINERALS the only zinc producer in South Africa IRON ORE 20% holding in Sishen Iron Ore Company Our commodities … At a glance … One of the largest South African based diversified resources company An ALSI Top 40 company, listed on the JSE Over 9 000 employees Revenue: R5,8bn* Net operating profit: R806m* Operations in South Africa, Australia, Namibia and China 53% BEE ownership * H1 2008 (6 months) results
4 The Storm …World GDP growth rates Source: Global Insight
5 The impact … Stock exchange indices Source: I-Net JSE Industrial IndexDow Jones Industrial Index
6 The impact … Copper, zinc coal and oil prices Source: I-Net
7 The impact … Copper and zinc LME stocks Source: I-Net
8 The impact … Zinc smelter production cuts Source: CRU 7% of world production Similar and even worse cutbacks in steel, nickel and ferro alloy sectors …
9 Is it happening again? Ultra-long term real zinc and copper prices Showing the major cycles and the fact that even during super cycles, prices are cyclical Is history repeating itself? Can we expect a slow or strong recovery? Should we invest now to have a 90% probability to get a return of 35% plus?
10 Is it happening again? Sources: Barclays Capital, AME Great Depression Oil price shocks ?
11 How deep and how long … Uncertain may seem like an understatement to describe the current mood in many quarters of the mining industry. The precipitous fall in prices for every metal but gold, the freezing of credit, and the big question marks over the future of the world economy have been enough to send most of us for the antacids, the Scotch, or the subscription medication of choice. Younger people relatively new to the mining business have painfully learned that, yes, there is always a downturn. On the positive side, those of us who have been around longer remember that there is always an upturn, sooner or later, and that its sharpness and duration are largely a function of what happens during the downturn. Source: Michael Chender, CEO Halifax
12 What will pull us through this storm … China major driver of commodity demand –Chinas share in commodity consumption –China GDP (IP) and forecast –Need 7-8% growth to absorb unemployed The world needs: –Energy –Infrastructure –Food, etc BRIC GDP growth
13 What will pull us through this storm … Source: Deutsche Bank
14 What will pull us through this storm … Economic growth in China and other emerging economies Source: Global Insight
15 Future outlook … Index of consensus commodity price forecasts Sources: Citigroup, Barclays Capital, Brook Hunt, Deutsche Bank, JB Were, Macquarie, Standard Bank
16 Source: Promethium Carbon 2006 The carbon economy … Still with us …
17 What do we need in Sub-Saharan Africa … and what can we offer? Needs: Energy Logistical integrity Rail transport Capital equipment Financing Skills Security of tenure Alliances and strong collaboration between State, private sector and utilities
19 Alternative forms of energy … Hydro electricity … long lead Nuclear … delayed, expensive Renewables … - solar - wind Coal bed methane/LNG Inga?
20 Logistical infrastructure and rail capacity Aus Mariental Kang Giving Botswana another rail route to the sea, especially for coal exports Getting TFR capacity in line with RBCT expansion, i.e. 91 Mtpa Expanding Sishen-Saldanha rail capacity Morupule 3+ bn tonnes of coal Mmamabula 4+ bn tonnes of coal Waterberg 74 bn tonnes of coal RBCT NWC Iron ore resources
23 Chindia - Staking out its claims in Africa Copper, oil and gas, ferro alloys, platinum, iron ore
24 Africas newest species … Bears and Pumas! The other two BRICs – Brazil and Russia – are active in Africa too
25 What are the positives about this event? A process of rational filtering ito asset quality Strong catalyst for synergistic alliances and collaboration Strong incentive to form an Africa Incorporated mindset to strengthen resilience Diversification potential Skills retention
26 What is Exxaro doing? Protect integrity of current assets Cost discipline Minimise value losses across value chain Improve efficiencies Spend cash wisely on high quality initiatives Create alliances Develop logistical solutions for coal business Improve our skills base
27 Protecting and improving quality of current asset base … The challenge for exploration and mining companies and their suppliers is how to respond to the new circumstances of the downturn while positioning themselves for an eventual rebound. Companies have been forced to look hard at costs, cash positions, financing possibilities, merger and acquisition possibilities, exploration strategy, personnel issues, and legal, social, and ethical obligations. Exactly how they conduct these examinations may make all the difference to their future success. Source: Michael Chender, CEO Halifax
28 So, how are we protecting our value chain? Mineral Resource Logistics Market Products Mineral Reserve Mineral Deposit/ Rights Losse s Conversion through Technology MiningBeneficiation Losse s ROM Losse s Typical OC Mine Typical UG Mine 1 4 3 6 2 6 4 5 2 5 3 1
30 Where to from here? If the past is any guide, several years from now we will be looking at major new players whose names we haven't yet heard of, and marveling at the unexpected growth of companies we hardly notice today. These companies will have done things with costs that no one believed possible, made deals that seemed counterintuitive at the time but that positioned them perfectly for the upturn, and created new business models that seemed to anticipate changes in the landscape. Source: Michael Chender, CEO Halifax
31 Our track record … Improved production volumes in 2008 Two new coal projects successfully commissioned in 2008 (Inyanda and Mafube) Massive Grootegeluk Medupi expansion on track High quality project pipeline … viable with current conditions Sintel Char plant being commissioned Increased presence in coal export market
32 Conclusion Harnessing is the right way All is not doom and gloom … create the capability to look through the storm - there is a blue ocean out there Be diligent, rigid and disciplined ito new investments The opportunities are still out there …