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1 Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs Presented by: Louis Paquette Publisher, EGS www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca www.emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs Presented by: Louis Paquette Publisher, EGS www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca www.emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs Presented by: Louis Paquette Publisher, EGS www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca www.emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com

2 2 Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs *Chart Updates as of May 28, 2008* GOLD $923 May 26 908.76 (50-day) 837.65 (200-day) Gold retraces 50% of the move down from $1,000 to $850 $75 + $850 = $925

3 3 Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs HUI Index Target: 375 (roughly 25 to 50 points below 200 dma)

4 4 Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs HGD Picked in March Issue at $7.88 - $10.34 on May 28 Target is: $14 - $16 - where it was when gold last traded at $800 to $850

5 5 Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs Our next Victim: Crude Oil HOD $8.52 (May 28, 2008) Breaking the trend line….

6 6 Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs Visit out Blog www.emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com

7 7 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Question: In ONE WORD, what is the biggest challenge facing stock market investors and speculators?

8 8 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies UNCERTAINTY Over: Overall market conditions Interest rates Commodity prices Specific company performance Government intervention Low odds of discovering a mineable economic deposit Competition Etc., etc., etc…

9 9 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies So what is certain? 1. Patterns exit that one can profit from Stock rise an average 7% per annum over time, but not consistently There is a rhythm to asset price movement (cycles) from overbought to oversold, from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic Optimism Pessimism Stocks

10 10 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies 2. Has strong annual seasonal tendencies

11 11 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Once Gold is overbought – it always returns to the moving average

12 12 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies HUI Index Another strong tendency: Gold strength seems to alternate from year to year. StrongWeak Strong

13 13 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies An aggressive way to play the cycle Horizon BetaPro ETFs HGD & HGU Buy HGD anytime now on dips (on rallies in gold price) sell this summer

14 14 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Advantages of Horizons ETFs 1.Go Long or Short (U UP or D Down) 2.I.E.: HGDown or HGUp 3.Shorting and leverage without the hazards of short selling or options & futures 4.2 X Leverage (they say. But really more) If Gold moves 2%: HUI 4% HGD 6%

15 15 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies This summer: Sell HGD, Buy HGU

16 16 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Example of the leverage: 1-Day return using the HGU.TSX ETF on Jan 2,2008 Close Dec 31 Close Jan 2 ChangePercent Gold (Feb)$838$860+$22+2.6% HUI Index409435+26+6.0% HGU.TSX ETF 24.2227.85+3.63 +15.0%

17 17 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies 5 month returns 5-MonthsAugust low Close Jan 8 ChangePercent Gold (Feb)$660$880+$220+33% HUI Index300458+158+52% HGU ETF1632.20+16+100%! *All in Rounded numbers The HGU.TSX ETF clearly delivers superior returns

18 18 August low Close Jan 10 ChangePercent iShares XGD $65$90+$25+38% streetTRACKS GLD $64$88+$24+37% Central Gold Trust GTU $24$35+$11+45% Horizons BetaPro HGU $16$33+$17 +$106% Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies HGU vs. Other Gold ETFs 5 month returns

19 19 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Specific Suggested trades 1.Buy HGU (Horizon Gold UP) At Cycle Bottom (June to August) Sell at Cycle Top (Feb to May) 2. Buy HGD (Horizon Gold DOWN) At Cycle Top (Feb to May) Sell Cycle Bottom (June to August) Web Site: www.hbpetfs.com/hgu.aspwww.hbpetfs.com/hgu.asp


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