1. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 20041 Telecommunication Technology towards 2020: Broadband for All and Access Everywhere Geir E. Øien, Nils Holte, Steinar Andresen, Torbjørn Svendsen, and Mikael Hammer

2. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 20042 The two key challenges Broadband for All: –We define full broadband as enough bandwidth to implement a Full Service Access Network (FSAN), e.g. all services including TV, for domestic uses. –FSAN allows Triple Play, telephone, Internet access and TV in the same connection. –At least 30 - 50 Mbits/s is then needed. Access Everywhere: –Ubiquitous and seamless availability of telecommunication services (not necessarily requiring full broadband). –Coverage also in areas with little or no infrastructure, and for high- mobility nomadic users. –A variety of wireless solutions, including satellite links and fixed radio access, will be important for implementing Access Everywhere.

3. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 20043 Main types of broadband Normal broadband –Typical downstream bit rate 0.5 - 2 (10) Mbit/s. –Dominating type today. –Mainly used for Internet access (browsing, E-mail, file transfer etc.). –IP telephony is also supported. Full broadband –Typical downstream bit rate 30 - 50 Mbit/s. –Integrates all services, telephone, Internet access and multiple TV channels (triple play).

4. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 20044 Broadband for all The future of full broadband is mainly wired (90 - 95%). The critical part is the access part. The cost of bulk information transport over long distances will be almost negligible. The fixed network will in many cases be extended to a nomadic wireless network e.g. by WLAN, so that the broadband access will be perceived as wireless by the end user.

5. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 20045 Bandwidth versus mobility Mobility: Bandwidth: Fixed Nomadic session mobility Mobile full mobility Narrowband speech Telephony ISDN GSM WLAN GSM Normal broadband x * 100 kbit/s ADSL Cable Fixed radio access UMTS WLAN UMTS IEEE 802.20 B3G Full broadband FSAN y * 10 Mbit/s VDSL Fibre to the home WLAN Unrealistic for most situations (exceptions exist)

6. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 20046 Fixed broadband access alternatives Twisted copper pairs, xDSLAlternative 1 Coaxial cable, cable-TV systemsAlternative 2 Fibre to the home Alternative 3 Fixed radio accessAlternative 4 Power distribution cables EMC problems Broadband satellite access Not competitive

7. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 20047 Fixed radio access - Will there be enough frequencies? Assume that all subscribers in a region should have FSAN via terrestrial radio. Rough case study (hexagonal cell structure + realistic system parameters). The maximum cell radius can be calculated for different cases. Conclusion: –Suitable for low penetration, i.e. rural districts: rapid deployment possible. –Not practical as the main solution for suburban and urban regions. Rural 10 users/km 2 Suburban 1000 users/km 2 Dense urban 10 000 users/km 2 Current technology 2.5 bit/s/Hz 1.3 km130 m40 m Future technology 25 bit/s/Hz 4 km400 m130 m Table of cell radii for different cases

8. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 20048 Fibre to the home Almost unlimited transmission rates: 100 Mbit/s full duplex per subscriber easily available. Prices of both fibre and terminal equipment have until recently been too high for single users, but optical fibre systems are now competitive with respect to equipment cost for a single private user. Fibre to the home (FTTH) will soon be the main alternative in new installations (e.g., building new residential areas). FTTH deployment in existing suburban areas is now becoming competitive. The full transition from copper to fibre may take decades - will probably follow the normal cycle for renewing underground infrastructure (water, sewage, electricity, telecom).

9. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 20049 Twisted pair cable alternatives More flexible than cable - exploits existing telephone line infrastructure. ADSL –256 kbit/s - 8 (16) Mbit/s downstream (asymmetric) –all the way from central office to subscriber VDSL + fibre to the curb –up to 52 Mbit/s on hybrid copper - fibre SHDSL –symmetric bitrates from 192 kbit/s to 2.304 Mbit/s A further doubling of available rates is expected in the near future.

10. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 200410 Channel capacity for 0.4 mm copper cable ADSL, L ≤ 4 - 5 km VDSL, L ≤ 1 km

11. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 200411 Access Everywhere via ”Beyond 3rd Generation” (B3G) Wireless Solutions B3G will represent a convergence between wireless access, wireless mobile, wireless LAN, and PDM networks. Will become available some time after 2010. One integrated terminal with one global personal number designed to access any wireless air interface. Radio transmission modules will become fully software-definable, re- configurable, and programmable. Heterogenous network regarding available and interacting technologies, content, and services. The technologies will range from –Personal Area Networks (PANs) - very short distances (< 10 m) –broadband wireless LAN (WLAN) technology - small cells (< 50 m) –a backbone cellular system for communication - medium ranges (< 1 km) –satellite links and fixed radio access - ubiquitous access in remote and sparsely populated areas.

12. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 200412 A vision of the future Wireless World 1.2. 3. 4. © Wireless World Research Forum 2001

13. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 200413 Spectrum regulation issues Regulatory reforms may free up enough RF bandwidth to significantly influence development of mobile telephony and wireless Internet services. Frequency reallocation, spectrum leases, and spectrum sharing will allow use of several new frequency bands for future mobile communications. Major trend: Move towards higher frequencies (above 5 GHz), leading to a nano- or pico-cell structure. This will make it near impossible to design standard cellular network to provide continent-wide coverage. Highest frequencies reserved for high-capacity short-range communications.

14. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 200414 B3G: Currently prevailing technology paradigm Evolution towards TCP/IP-based core network; wireless Internet access based on packet switching for all services (including voice). Evolution towards an ad-hoc wireless network; base stations installed where needed and interconnected in a self-configuring way. Distributed high-speed WLANs will serve local hot spots, interconnected by an overlayed backbone cellular network, and by wired infrastructure. A multitude of wireless sensors will be integrated in the network for interaction/communication between users and devices, and between devices. Dominant traffic load will be high-speed burst-type TCP/IP traffic. Novel radio interfaces enable potential increase in bandwidth efficiency [bits/s/Hz] by a factor 10 - 100 compared to 2G (GSM) and 3G (UMTS). B3G will therefore deliver much higher data rates, and hence more diverse services, than 2G and 3G systems.

15. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 200415 Conclusions Broadband for All and Access Everywhere are the two main technological challenges in telecom towards 2020. For full broadband, “the future is mainly wired.” Within time frame under study, xDSL systems are major candidates for broadband fixed access, and can provide –systems for a wide range of bitrates –symmetrical and asymmetrical systems. FTTH will soon be the main alternative for new installations. Access via cable TV and fixed radio are other candidates for broadband access. In 2020 there will be a mix of systems. Satellites are suitable for TV broadcasting and coverage in remote areas, but not competitive for true broadband access. The fixed broadband network will often be extended to a wireless nomadic network, and access will hence be perceived as wireless by the end user.

16. NTNU Department of Electronics and Telecommunications InfoSam2020, NTNU, April 19, 200416 Conclusions, cont’d Access Everywhere will be provided through a variety of wireless solutions, which together form the B3G network: –Personal Area Networks –Wireless LANs –Backbone cellular network –Fixed radio access –Satellite links B3G will become available sometime after 2010, and represents convergence between the above subsystems and the wired network. B3G will be based on packet switching and designed to carry high-speed, bursty TCP/IP traffic. New radio interface technologies may increase bandwidth efficiencies and available data rates by a factor 10 - 100 compared to GSM and UMTS. This will enable much more advanced and diverse telecommunications services in the future than what is offered by today’s systems.