1. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference – Lisbon November 2004 Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and Deaths

2. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 2 Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and Deaths The Research Study was commissioned by Transport Canada. Its objective was to determine any trends that might exist in occupant survival in passenger aircraft accidents. Over the past thirty years improvements have been made to many occupant survival factors, however little is known as to the real effect that these improvements have made to the survivability of occupants.

3. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 3 Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and Deaths i) An assessment of the trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate. ii)An assessment of the trend based on those fatal accidents that have been caused by aircraft fires. iii)An assessment of the trend in the proportion of fire fatalities occurring in aircraft accidents as a function of total number of occupant fatalities. Three separate studies were carried out on western world turbojet aircraft as follows:

4. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 4 Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and Deaths i)The accident occurred to a Western World Turbojet aircraft ii)The accident resulted in at least one fatality iii)The aircraft was operating in the Passenger or Passenger/Cargo role with passengers on-board Accidents were studied that satisfied the following criteria:

5. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 5 Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate So what is the trend in total accident rate?

6. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 6 Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate Date Total Landings (x1000) Cumulative landings (x1000) ACCIDENTS CUMULATIVE ACCIDENTS Cumulative Accidents per landing 1991 13,079 232,95382711.16E-06 1992 13,710 246,66382791.13E-06 1993 14,268 260,931112901.11E-06 1994 15,097 276,028103001.09E-06 1995 15,852 291,88063061.05E-06 1996 16,642 308,522123181.03E-06 1997 17,372 325,894103281.01E-06 1998 17,992 343,88693379.80E-07 1999 18,953 362,83993469.54E-07 2000 20,501 383,340103569.29E-07

7. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 7 1 x 10 -6 2 x 10 -6 5 x 10 -7 Civil Transport Aircraft Fatal Accident Rate – Turbo Jet All Causes YEAR 2002 YEAR 1967 0

8. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 8 1 x 10 -6 2 x 10 -6 5 x 10 -7 Civil Transport Aircraft Fatal Accident Rate – Turbo Jet All Causes YEAR 2002 YEAR 1967 0

9. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 9 Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate Date Total Landings (x1000) Cumulative landings (x1000) ACCIDENTS CUMULATIVE ACCIDENTS Cumulative Accidents per landing 1991 13,079 232,95382711.16E-06 1992 13,710 246,66382791.13E-06 1993 14,268 260,931112901.11E-06 1994 15,097 276,028103001.09E-06 1995 15,852 291,88063061.05E-06 1996 16,642 308,522123181.03E-06 1997 17,372 325,894103281.01E-06 1998 17,992 343,88693379.80E-07 1999 18,953 362,83993469.54E-07 2000 20,501 383,340103569.29E-07

10. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 10 Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate Another way of presenting the data is to use the Duane Growth Model

11. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 11 Actual and Predicted Number of Accidents to Western World Turbojets

12. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 12 Actual and Predicted Number of Accidents to Western World Turbojets

13. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 13 Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents

14. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 14 Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents YEAR 2000 YEAR 1967

15. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 15 Trends In Fire Fatalities An assessment of the proportion of fatalities attributable to fire in accidents to western built aircraft over the period 1967 to 2000 inclusive

16. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 16 Trends In Fire Fatalities 131 Accidents were studied and an assessment made of the number of fatalities attributable to fire.131 Accidents were studied and an assessment made of the number of fatalities attributable to fire. Where a precise determination could not be made of the number of fatalities attributable to the fire the maximum and minimum number possible was recorded. Where a precise determination could not be made of the number of fatalities attributable to the fire the maximum and minimum number possible was recorded.

17. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 17 Trends In Fire Fatalities Sample Data Sample Data

18. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 18 Trends In Fire Fatalities

19. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 19 Trends In Fire Fatalities

20. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 20 Conclusions The Duane Growth Model seems to represent the improvement in fatal accident rate to western world turbojets for All fatal accidents & Fatal accidents attributable to fire

21. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 21 Conclusions However, trends in fire fatalities could be predicted with greater accuracy by the acquisition of more accident data. There appears to be a continuous downward trend in the total Fatal Accident Rate and the accident rate attributable to fire, for western built turbojet aircraft, over the period 1967 to 2000.

22. R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 22 Conclusions However, trends in fire fatalities could be predicted with greater accuracy by the acquisition of more accident data. The proportion of fatalities attributable to fire appears to demonstrate a continuous downward trend over the period 1967 to 2000.The proportion of fatalities attributable to fire appears to demonstrate a continuous downward trend over the period 1967 to 2000. However, further data are required to confirm this conclusion.However, further data are required to confirm this conclusion.