1. Impact pathways for the BFPs Boru Douthwaite BFP-Impact Assessment Project Leader, CIAT, Cali, Colombia Presentation made at the BFP PFF, Don Chang Palace Hotel, Vientiane, Laos Sunday, 12 th November, 2006

2. CPWF-BFP Impact Assessment Project Goal –To contribute to the CPWF fulfilling its impact potential –To contribute to the CPWF being perceived as a “coherent, problem-focused research program” Purpose –CPWF scientists and management are using IA products and methods Intervention –Carry out “exemplary” impact analysis Impact pathways; scenario analysis; extrapolation domain analysis –Develop methodology

3. Impact pathways – two conceptualizations…. Logic model Network maps

4. Impact Pathways 1.A visual description of the causal chain of events and outcomes that link outputs to the goal (logic model); and 2.Network maps that show the evolving relationships necessary to achieve the goal Implementing organizations; boundary partners; beneficiaries Shows the project rationale; its logic Shows multiple pathways

5. Foundations of the IP Approach Synthesis of concepts and tools from: –Program Evaluation Renger and Titcomb (2002) – problem trees Chen (2005) – program theory Mayne (2004) - performance stories –Social network analysis Cross and Parker, 2004

6. Participatory Development of Impact Pathways

7. The Process of Developing Impact Pathways – The Workshop

8. The Process of Developing Impact Pathways

10. Key IP Concepts: How change happens “Improvements in poverty alleviation, food security and the state of natural resources result from dynamic, interactive, non-linear, and generally uncertain processes of innovation.” EIARD, 2003 EIARD represents a group of European donors 15 EU Countries plus Norway and Switzerland

12. Scaling Out and Scaling Up Scaling up - an institutional expansion, from adopters and their grassroots organizations to policy makers, donors, development institutions Scaling out - spread of a project outputs (i.e., a new technology, a new strategy, etc.) from farmer to farmer, community to community, within the same stakeholder groups

13. The theory behind the IP approach “Stakeholders' implicit theories are not likely to be systematically and explicitly articulated, and so it is up to evaluators to help stakeholders elaborate their ideas.” (Chen, 2005, p. 14)

14. The Process of Developing Impact Pathways

15. Identify Project Outputs Identify the outputs your BFP will produce. Write them on cards. –Outputs are things that others outside the project use Take 10 minutes and then present them (presentation maximum 2 minutes) Task 1

16. Develop a vision of project success two years after the project ends Work in project groups Take 5 minutes to individually answer the question –You wake up 2 years after your project has ended. Your project has been a success and is well on its way to achieving its goal. Describe what this success looks like to a journalist: What is happening differently now? Who is doing what differently? How are project outputs disseminating (scaling-out)? What political support is nurturing this spread (scaling-up)? How did that happen? Discuss and develop a common vision Keep it realistic Task 2

17. Family ties Friendship ties Workplace ties

18. Network Exercise 1.Develop network diagrams for Your project now “Vision” network 2 years after project has finished 2.Develop now and future network maps for: Research Scaling out / extension Scaling up / political support 3.Identify differences between the now and future networks 4.Discuss changes in terms of concrete actions needed to bring them about 5.Develop work plans 6.Present maps, implications and work plans to each other Task 3

19. Final maps based on answers

22. Extrapolation Domain Analysis Use Weight of Evidence models –Socio-economic, example PN6: Existence of fish production (FAO, 2006); Percentage coverage of sanitation facilities (UNICEF, 2005); The poverty line as describe by the below U$D 1 per/day index (ILRI, 2006). –Agro-ecological

23. Choice of Variables

24. Pilot Sites

25. Socio-economic extrapolation

26. Agro-ecological Extrapolation

27. Putting them together