1. Water and Political Economy of Food in Pakistan within a climate change context Pervaiz Amir (Asianics Agro Dev-Pakistan) St. Catherine’s College Oxford University, UK

2.  Climate Change Scenario of Pakistan and its glaring water crisis(mismanagement at all levels)  Political Economy of Water- embedded in history, feudalism, military dictatorship and a weak democratic base, extremism the haves vs. have not's, the great divide, poverty and unprecedented growth  Core issues and Challenges : 1. Justice and Governance 2. Break down of law and order (suicide attacks) 3. Food and Energy led inflation 4. Water based productivity/ profitability food insecurity, corruption, terrorism and partial war like situation on borders with cross boundary implications  Resulting Chaos, food insecurity and instability- constraints, opportunities, comparative advantage and choices within a dynamic political economy

3. Political set-up  Three parties with fragmented political influences and interests Inter and intra conflicts  Baluchistan and Wazirizstan  Afghanistan, Iran, Kashmir  Neighboring Giants-India and China

4. 4 Source: WAPDA SSSSSou World’s Largest and perhaps oldest contiguous Irrigation system. Extensive investment that is crumbling due To mismanagement and lack of investment in repair and maintenance

5. 5 Afghanistan India Pakistan China 70% of the water is stored Threatened by climate change Challenging Pakistan’s Existence

6. 6 Distribution of Water in Main Rivers of Pakistan % of IRS Inflows % Seasonal Distribution Dominant Source in Summer Dominant Source in Winter Summer Winter (Apr-Sep)(Oct-Mar) Indus448614 Snow/Glacial melt Winter Rainfall + Baseflow Chenab198317 Snow/Glacial melt + Monsoon Winter Rainfall + Baseflow Jhelum167822 Mainly Snow melt + Monsoon Winter Rainfall + Baseflow Kabul168218 Snow/Glacial melt Winter Rainfall + Baseflow Others5

7. C Source: internet

8.  Rise in mean temperature of 0.6-1.0°C in arid coastal areas, arid mountains and hyper arid plains. Projected 30—40% decline in rainfall and precipitation but with rising intensity of rainfalls during monsoons  0.5 to 0.7% Increase in solar radiation over southern half of country.  3-5% decrease in cloud cover in central Pakistan with increase in sunshine hours.  5% increase in net irrigation water requirement with no change in rainfall. Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department  “As of 2 July 900 people had been killed, 250, 000 made homeless and 1.5 million affected in some way by the storms. The 2007 monsoon represents the worst disaster to have hit Pakistan since the cataclysmic earthquake of October 2005 that left 73,000 dead and three million displaced. ( Source Pakistan’s Political Monsoon Graham Usher Al-Ahram Weekly, 11 July 2007”  It never snowed in Islamabad, people in Karachi took out winter jackets for first time in their lives, micro cloud bursts, all mountains near Quetta covered with heavy snow– still Baluchistan is most arid and drought prone

10. Dying waters Killing Floods Pakistan faces both floods and droughts

11. 11 Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan (Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario) S Expe E 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1990s2020s2050s2080s Period Temperature Change (°C) northern pp Pakistan southern pp Pakistan Northern PakistanSouthern Pakistan Expect increase in Wheat Production 15% (3 % area) Expect decline of 15-20% in wheat And other crops (80% area) Source: GCISC

12. There is plenty of water around the sea that remains un-utilized. Mixing with some fresh water can bring un-precedented changes in agriculture productivity Pakistan is a large country with 60% of its lands still under-explored. Resettlement is costly but not impossible. Out migration to urban areas Will have its own set of problems and opportunities-different type of agri culture The time frame for glacier melt is 45 years. With wise decisions “ make the the best out of the worst” We are certain about the temperatures but uncertain about precipitation- Can prayers help!

13.  Rights and Entitlements tied to land and embedded in history and laws of inheritance  90% water in agriculture (rest industry 3%, drinking 2%, and other uses) no Min flows in rivers  40-50% less water this year. Cries from Sindh and Punjab- Wheat crop looks quite hopeless (disease, weed and grain shrivelling)  Upper vs. lower riparian- major conflict- will test political acumen  Lack of trust, transparency-and overall water mismanagement  Failure to agree on storage for irrigation, hydropower, regulation “dams contentious”  High political cost of decision making-indecision and ad-hoc pluralism  Threats fro Hydro-terrorism  Planned vs. unplanned transformation/adaptation  Rapidly changing Environment-Behavior and System Performance But Still>>>>>>>! SBP chief upbeat on growth despite political turmoil FRANKFURT, Dec 5, 2007 : Pakistan’s economy should grow at least 7 per cent in the year to June 2008, central bank chief Shamshad Akhtar said despite the political turmoil besetting the nation (Dawn Newspaper).

15. Food Security Produces 22-24 Million tones of wheat. Now declining and dangerous disease and weed situation Major shift in surplus vs. deficit districts. Out of 120 district settings in Pakistan, 74 (62%) were found to be food deficit in terms of net availability. This deficit varies ranging from low through high to extreme degree. Wheat, a staple, catering for 48% of caloric needs in Pakistan, was found deficit in terms of net availability and the shortage was estimated at 3.2 million tons annually. Out of 120 districts, only 48 (40%) were producing surplus or enough to cater to the needs of these districts. In other words, 72 districts (60%) were deficient in wheat availability ( Source: Food Insecurity in Rural Pakistan 2003) Price of all commodities risen between 12-40% just in past six months (2007/8) and rising unabatedly. International price of wheat and rice doubled. Farm community unable to produce at existing prices (wheat, rice, oils), costs (DAP, urea, water, seed) and technology gap. Availability of food reduced due to production decline, unplanned exports, smuggling and front line status Rising domestic and regional demand for products like vegetables, fruits, meat, milk, poultry

16. Feeding under climate change and high fuel and input costs Agriculture at Cross roads

17. Tree resources rapidly declining 4.2% cover and counting Fisheries dependent on how water Is managed-min flows

18. Population densities and poverty hotspots-opting for planned change

19. Adding to the water crisis- gender Water burden a women’s problem Poverty on the rise Empty bowls

20. Technology options-making it work at least cost

21. Conclusions Recognize that political systems are self perpetuating interests, negotiating options and making decisions with limited information often for short term gains-narrow down the case of CC Majority of institutions engaged in water reform, ensuring food security, water security vs. food security regulation are ill equipped to handle the rapid decline in system ability to ensure food security Water can make or break vote banks. Its not scarcity its economic choices and management that require attention Disaggregate analysis by type of agriculture practiced (traditional, commercial, corporate farming, export oriented)-likewise the policy tools, technology packages, migration/adaptation measures be specific about whom they address Climate change is impacting production and consumption patterns in an unprecedented manner- address it pragmatically to mitigate/adapt to its vagaries and exploit the opportunities it offers Production, consumption, processing and marketing systems need to address inter and intra heterogeneity of South Asian systems – it’s a large self sustaining market that needs to negotiate its terms of trade and global responsibilities more maturely Science based response to food systems essential ( Global and Environmental Food Systems GECAFS, 2008 and Science-based Agricultural Transformation Towards Alleviation of Hunger and Poverty in SAARC Countries (March, 2008), New Delhi provide some direction setting for South Asia needs packaging and specificity

22. Thank You!