1. User Conference 11/14/13 Storm Impact Scott Morris Earth Science Associates Long Beach, CA 2013 User Conference Hosted by Maersk – Houston November 14, 2013

2. Goals Predict if a hurricane will enter the Gulf of Mexico User Conference 11/14/13 Predict lost production –Platform –Gulf Wide Update predictions using the newest data

3. Determining if a Hurricane Will Enter the Gulf Use existing data on storms since 1950 –We have path segments for storms since 1922 but they are not named –We end up with 631 storm paths Given a storm’s current position, can we decide if it will enter the Gulf of Mexico? User Conference 11/14/13

4. Path of All Named Storms User Conference 11/14/13

5. Area of Interest User Conference 11/14/13

6. Storms that Entered the Gulf User Conference 11/14/13

7. Grid Extending to Barbados User Conference 11/14/13 10 Storms Total 5 entering the Gulf

8. Probability of Entering Gulf User Conference 11/14/13

9. Wind Speeds User Conference 11/14/13

10. Platforms Directly Affected User Conference 11/14/13

12. Predicting Gulf Wide Losses Regression analysis –Current production and wind speed should be able to predict the loss of production caused by a hurricane –Experimenting with different models –Production is taken from platforms in the path of the hurricane User Conference 11/14/13

13. Platforms 20 kilometers from path User Conference 11/14/13

14. Preliminary Regression Results User Conference 11/14/13

15. Problems and Refinement Multiple hurricanes occurring in the same month –Currently treating these as a single hurricane Varying wind speeds not taken into account Platforms directly in the path are weighted the same as those 20 kilometers away User Conference 11/14/13

16. Workflow User Conference 11/14/13 Determine if current hurricane is likely to enter the Gulf Determine platforms directly affected by Hurricane and create charts and tables Make prediction for Gulf Wide production lost based on hurricane path Upload findings and charts to website Check for updated data from NOAA