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Bong-Geun Jun, Ph.D. IFANS, Seoul

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1 Bong-Geun Jun, Ph.D. IFANS, Seoul
Preparing for Nuclear Renaissance and the Korean Model The 9th ROK-UN Joint Conference on Disarmament and Non-proliferation Issues: Nuclear Renaissance and International Peace and Security   Jeju, Republic of Korea 2-3 December 2010 Bong-Geun Jun, Ph.D. IFANS, Seoul

2 Contents Nuclear Renaissance and Why Now Nonproliferation Requirements
3. The Korean Case 4. Preparations for Newcomers 5. Korea’s Role for Global Renaissance

3 [1] Nuclear Renaissance
Current Status of Civilian Nuclear Energy 441 nuclear power plants in 29 countries 14 % of world electricity production=5.7% of total primary energy consumption ‘Global’ Nuclear Renaissance - NPP construction: 33 in 2007, 66 now - 65 ‘new’ countries considering or planning nuclear energy - South Korea: 20 now, 8 under construction, 40 in 2030 - China: 10 now, 24 under construction - Global: Southeast Asian, South Asian, Middle Eastern countries

4 World Nuclear Power Outlook 2030
(14.2%) (14.4%) 748GW Eastern Europe & Russia 372GW Western Europe 119GW 48 GW 122GW 150GW 2007 2030 Two-fold Increase North America 175GW Asia 268GW 113 GW 83GW Africa 2GW 14GW [Source: IAEA, Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030, Edition (High estimate) ] I’ll start my talk with a global perspective, referring the IAEA’s world nuclear power outlook. This slide shows IAEA’s 2008 Forecast on nuclear power’s generating capacity in the future. IAEA estimates that the capacity of nuclear power will increase from the present 372 giga-watts to 748 giga-watts (two-fold increase) in 2030 at high estimated scenario. Increasing energy demand, concerns over climate change and energy security are making the case for nuclear power stronger.  You can see that large portion of the increase will occur in Asian region and Korea is one of the key countries pursuing the double increase of nuclear power capacity until 2030. Latin America 4 GW 20GW

5 Why Now? Climate change: Greenhouse gas emission reduction obligations
Energy (in)security: uncertain fossil-fuel prices, unstable supply, limited stock Safe operation record of NPP ☞ Nuclear Energy “Dark Age” : Three Mile Island accident (USA, 1979), Chernobyl accident (Ukraine, 1986), Indian nuclear test (1974) Increasing electricity demand: industrialization, per person consumption, desalination Nuclear bandwagon, state prestige(?)

6 [2] Nonproliferation Requirements
NPT §4. the inalienable right to peaceful use of nuclear energy, but with ‘nonproliferation’ conditionality (1) Safeguards NPT, IAEA Safeguards Agreement, Additional Protocol (2) Export Control NSG, UNSCR 1540, CSI (3) Nuclear Security - CPPNM, IAEA INFCIRC. 225, UNSCR 1887, GICNT, Nuclear Security Summit Communique/Work Plan

7 Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime
NPT (75.4) NPT : Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons IAEA : International Atomic Energy Agency CSA : Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement NSG : Nuclear Suppliers Group CPPNM : Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material CTBT : Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty FMCT : Fissile Material Cut off Treaty Horizontal Proliferation: Vertical Proliferation Safeguards Export Control Physical Protection Other Export Control Regimes For the challenges, first, I’ll talk about nuclear nonproliferation. As you all know, Korea is a full supporter of the global nonproliferation regime. Korea is a founding member of the IAEA. Since ratifying the NPT in 1975, Korea has joined all treaties, conventions, groups implementing nonproliferation measures such as safeguards, export control, physical protection and also nuclear test ban as you see in the slide. IAEA CSA Zangger Committee, NSG CPPNM CTBT (99.12) AG : Australian Group (96.10) BWC : Biological Weapons Convention (87.6) CWC : Chemical Weapons Convention (97.4) MTCR : Missile Technology Control Regime (01.3) Wassenaar Arrangement (96.7) Additional Protocol UNSCR 1540 IAEA Guidelines (INFCIRC/225) FMCT

8 Recent Positions on NE and Nonproliferation
L’Aquila G-8 Statement on Nonproliferation (2009.7) 7. … We are committed to promoting nuclear non-proliferation, safeguards, safety and security in cooperation with the IAEA and welcome new initiatives in emerging nuclear energy countries on nuclear education and training as well as institutional capacity building in these fields. … UNSC Resolution 1887 (2009.9) 11. Encourages efforts to ensure development of peaceful uses of nuclear energy by countries seeking to maintain or develop their capacities in this field in a framework that reduces proliferation risk and adheres to the highest international standards for safeguards, security, and safety;

9 2010 NPT Review Conference Final Document
52. The Conference confirms that, when developing nuclear energy, including nuclear power, the use of nuclear energy should be accompanied by commitments to and ongoing implementation of safeguards, as well as appropriate and effective levels of safety and security, in accordance with IAEA standards and consistent with the national legislation and respective international obligations of States.

10 Korea’s Position Basic bargain among the 3 pillars in NPT
- nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation, PUNE are “mutually reinforcing and complementary” - President’s Prague speech(2009.4) PUNE with conditionality - PUNE with strict nonproliferation and SG obligations - Access to nuclear fuel cycle technology: multilateral approaches should not deny or limit the legitimate right to PUNE; conditions of objective and economic needs, peaceful purposes and full fulfillment of nonproliferation obligations - More attention to the back-end nuclear fuel cycle

11 [3] The Korean Case Nuclear Power Generation
2009, 20 units 17.7 GWe, 34% of electricity supply(base), 24 % of capacity - 2030, 35 units 35 GWe, 59% of supply KEPCO average cost 68 kwon(5cents)/KWH: Nuclear 39 Kwon(3cents) vs. Coal 53 Kwon vs. LNG 143 Kwon Public consensus for NE: Cheap, reliable and high quality electricity supply for fast economic growth and high-tech industries

12 History of Nuclear Energy Development
1958 Atomic Energy Act 1959 Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) 1962 First Reactor: TRIGA Mark-II Research Reactor, General Atomics 1978 First NPP: Kori Unit 1, Westinghouse In the 1950s, when Koreans were struggling to survive in the wake of the devastation wrought by the Korean War, Korea very fortunately realized early on the significance of nuclear energy as shown in the slide. A small Asian nation that had no scientific and technological infrastructure took a huge step towards securing a wholly new source of energy for humanity.

13 Korea’s NE Export NPP Export Strategy (2009)
To export 10 units by 2020, 80 units by 2030 Plan (20% of 430 new NPPs projection) Market: UAE, Turkey, India, Jordan, South Africa, China, Vietnam. … - Strength: Proven technology, world-best operation rate, price, safety, construction period NPP 4 units of 1400 MW(APR 1400) reactor to UAE at $20 billion( ): Research reactor to Jordan at $132 mil. (2010.3)

14 UAE Nuclear Power Plant
UAE Export Selected as a Commercial Nuclear Reactor in UAE (27 Dec 2009) Reactor Model: APR Units Construction site: western Abu Dhabi Last December, as you all know, 4 APR1400’s proposed by the Korean KEPCO consortium was selected as UAE nuclear power plants, which will be constructed in western Abu Dhabi. I think the primary factors of the success are : World best operating capability, Accumulated experience in continuous domestic construction, Outstanding design and construction capability, and Competitive construction and operation cost.

15 Jordan Research and Test Reactor
Core type : Open Pool Type Multipurpose Research Reactor (5 MWth ) Purposes : Training, Radioisotope Production, etc. Project Schedule ’ : Selected as preferred bidder Contract signing ceremony on March 2010 Detailed Design by 2012 Built on Jordan University of Science and Technology by 2015 Also earlier in last December, the KAERI and Daewoo consortium was selected as a preferred bidder for the 5MWth Jordan Research and Test Reactor, which will be built on Jordan University of Science and Technology by and the contract was signed last March. The ground-breaking ceremony will be held in November. I believe all these accomplishments in nuclear export clearly demonstrate the Korea’s will and ability for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

16 Success Factors of the “Korean Model”
State-led strategic planning and early start Cooperation with and support from U.S. - US-Korea 123 agreement( ) Partnership with IAEA Focus on Civilian Use only - South vs. North Korea Human resources: U.S.-educated engineers, researchers, R&D centers, universities

17 Korea’s Nuclear Infrastructure
Ministry of Education, Science and Technology: nuclear policy, int’l cooperation, safety, safeguards/security div. KAERI: Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute KINS: Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety KINAC: Korea institute of Nonproliferation and Control KONICOF: Korea Nuclear International Cooperation Fd. Ministry of Knowledge Economy: nuclear industry, export promotion KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation) KHNP (Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power) Doosan Heavy Industry: nuclear key components - Civil engineering firms

18 [4] Preparations for Newcomers
Typical Criteria for Decisions Economics: costs/benefits Safety: nuclear accident Environment: climate change, nuclear waste Nonproliferation: capability, intentions, security invironment, infrastructure(law, culture, public) Other Major Considerations Energy Security Technological and Economic Advancement Politics: security, prestige factor

19 Cost-Benefit Analysis of NE
Benefits Costs and Risks Energy security - Economical and reliable electricity supply for industry, desalination and personal consumption Low-emission energy for environment Technological, industrial advancement and spill-over effect Prestige effect Proliferation risks Nuclear fuel supply and spent-fuel management problems Opportunity cost (lost investment for other renewable energy resources) Costs for nuclear safety, safeguard and security

20 Obstacles and Costs to New Comers
Costs for Nuclear safety and security infrastructure - regulations, institutions, culture Civilian nuclear technology capability Regional politics: rivalries, domestic and regional instability factors Nuclear proliferation concerns in the region Nuclear fuel cycle activities: nuclear fuel supply, spent fuel management Economic and present needs

21 Preparations for NE National Nuclear Energy Roadmap
Energy needs, financing, national consensus National Nuclear safety, safeguards, security, export control regime: Human resources development plan Fuel-cycle issues: fuel supply, spent-fuel management 2. International Cooperation Nonproliferation preparations, commitment Cooperation with IAEA: technical, safeguards/security Bilateral cooperation agreements: - ex. U.S. 123 agreement: EURATOM/Japan, Standard 123 model, UAE models

22 Preparations for NE 3. Regional, Multilateral Cooperation
Joint solutions for nuclear power generation, NPP sites, fuel-supply, spent-fuel managment, safeguards, joint R&D center EURATOM model Nuclear-weapons Free Zone Implementing UNSC 1540, 1887, Nuclear Security Summit Communiqué

23 5. Korea’s Role for Nuclear Renaissance
the Korean Model for Newcomers Contributions to the global nonproliferation regime - hosting 2011 GICNT, 2012 NSS Nonproliferation assistance to Newcomers ‘Responsible’ exporter of nuclear energy Development of future & sustainable nuclear energy systems participating in GIF, GNEP Developing proliferation-resistant and sustainable future nuclear energy system

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