1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota: 1970-2006 Peter Ciborowski Anne Claflin June 2009

2. Legislative Request   The Next Generation Energy Act established the following GHG reduction goals:   15 % reduction from 2005 levels by 2015;   30 % reduction by 2025; and   80 % reduction by 2050.   The MPCA is obligated to report on statewide progress toward these GHG reduction goals.   Annual legislative proposal   Biennial Reduction Progress Report   The request included some specifications, such as estimating electricity imported to service Minnesota demand and separate tracking of emissions or sequestration associated with biomass (Minn. Stat. § 216H)

3. Progress Towards Goal

4. Emissions by Sector

6. Emissions by Activity

7. Rules  Principles:   the long record of emissions covering periods of years to decades;   a consistent time series of estimates;   best international and US practices;   high level of data disaggregation; and   timeliness.  Geographical boundaries, except:  net electricity imports  aviation  Recalculation of previous and baseline year estimates as methods change  Limitations in protocols and available data  Downstream (combustion of fossil fuels and other noncombustion emissions)  Direct (physically occur at a facility)  Separately track biogenic emissions and sequestration

8. Emissions from Electric Power Generation

9. Emissions from Transportation

10. Energy Use: Percent Fossil Fuel

11. Energy Consumption by Fuel

12. Indicators 199020002006 lb GHGs / $ real GSP (Chained 2000 $)2.11.5 Tons GHGs (total) / Capita29.129.6 lb GHGs / kWh Generated lb GHGs / kWh Consumed1.741.68 lb GHGs / Harvested Acres1,4671,4401,557 lb GHGs / sq. ft. Residential Floor Space5.65.94.4 lb direct and indirect GHGs / $ Industrial Economic Activity 2.102.49 lb GHGs / Vehicle Mile Traveled (passenger vehicles and light duty trucks) 1.050.97 Fossil Fuel Btu / Mile Traveled (passenger vehicles and light duty trucks) 6,3485,828

13. Forestry

14. Next Steps   Planned improvements for the next biennial report, covering 1970-2008, include:   an improved HFC/PFC inventory based on the full implementation of the mandatory high GWP reporting rule;   new fuel use and feedstock reporting requirements for in-state petroleum refineries;   greater disaggregation of state-level energy use data to the end-use level;   a new stock model for monthly estimation of livestock populations on farms and feedlots;   development of an emission forecasting capability.

15. Full Report Available:  Climate Change page:  http://www.pca.state.mn.us/climatechange/  Legislative Reports page  http://www.pca.state.mn.us/hot/legislature/reports/index.html