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Stochastic Analysis of Three VH-MDX Crash Scenarios
Glenn Horrocks John Tonitto BWRS
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Scenarios Tower Logs Witness Report: Blenman Witness Report: 4wd party
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Stochastic Analysis
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Scenario 1: Tower Logs Nominal STD Source Tower bearing at 19:36:00
320° 2° Log transcript Tower range at 19:36:00 48NM 0.5NM Aircraft Heading 140° 10° Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00 145 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment Aircraft air speed at stall 85 knots Time of crash 19:39:27 35 seconds John Watson’s analysis Wind speed at 8000’ 43 knots Wind speed at 6000’ 33 knots Wind direction 230° Bank rate at 19:36:00 0°/s 0.1°/s GH and JT experience Bank rate acceleration 0°/s2 0.02°/s2
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Careys Peak Track Allyn River Mt Lumeah Mt Lumeah Burraga Swamp Burraga Swamp Paterson River
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Scenario 2: Blenman Nominal STD Source Blenman’s Location 5540 4910
Eyewitness account – JT Time of Blenman’s sighting 19:38:30 Aircraft distance from Blenman 7km 0.5NM Aircraft bearing from Blenman 240° 2° Aircraft Heading 45° 30° Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00 145 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment Aircraft air speed at stall 85 knots Time of crash 19:39:27 35 seconds John Watson’s analysis Wind speed at 8000’ 43 knots Wind speed at 6000’ 33 knots Wind direction 230° 10° Bank rate at 19:36:00 0°/s 0.1°/s GH and JT experience Bank rate acceleration 0°/s2 0.02°/s2
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Mt Lumeah Burraga Swamp Allyn River Paterson River
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Scenario 3: 4wd Nominal STD Source Location at 19:31:10 4540 4010
0.5NM Eyewitness account – JT Aircraft Heading 45° 30° Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00 145 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment Aircraft air speed at stall 85 knots Time of crash 19:39:27 35 seconds John Watson’s analysis Wind speed at 8000’ 43 knots Wind speed at 6000’ 33 knots Wind direction 230° 10° Bank rate at 19:36:00 0°/s 0.1°/s GH and JT experience Bank rate acceleration 0°/s2 0.02°/s2
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Rawdon Vale (25km W of Gloucester) Careys Peak Track Burraga Swamp Williams River Paterson River Allyn River
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Careys Peak Track Mt Lumeah Burraga Swamp Allyn River Paterson River
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