1. Ozone and PM Data Analysis and CWS Achievement Determination S. Beauchamp, D. Waugh, C. Farrell, R. Tordon MSC-A

2. Ozone/PM Data Analysis O 3 and PM data support to regional AQI's O 3 and PM data support to regional AQI's ozone/ PM climatology ozone/ PM climatology - e.g. episodes, diurnal, seasonal, annual trends, transport patterns L L H H June 9, 2004 18Z

3. Ozone and PM Data Analysis O3 and PM data AQ prediction model development, evaluation, application (CHRONOS, AURAMS). O3 and PM data AQ prediction model development, evaluation, application (CHRONOS, AURAMS). continued support the AQPP forecasting and forecast verification continued support the AQPP forecasting and forecast verification O3 and PM outreach: O3 and PM outreach: CAOL, AIRNOW. CAOL, AIRNOW.

4. Ozone and PM - CWS Canada Wide Standards: data re-analyzed within the context of CWS achievement data re-analyzed within the context of CWS achievement AQ measurement linkages with KCAC and CI AQ measurement linkages with KCAC and CI

5. Ozone and PM - CWS assessment of transboundary transport & source regions assessment of transboundary transport & source regions Altitude (m)

6. Ozone and PM - CWS CWS AQ Modeling: support to prov. Joint Implementation Planning support to prov. Joint Implementation Planning collaboration with Quebec region on AQ modeling in Eastern Canada linked with MAGS (CMC). collaboration with Quebec region on AQ modeling in Eastern Canada linked with MAGS (CMC). established new Eastern Canada grid established new Eastern Canada grid (include offshore).

7. Ozone and PM - CWS CWS Modeling: regional exceedance database. regional exceedance database. case studies (2001-2003) selected with Que. and Atlantic (fed/prov) CWS WG. case studies (2001-2003) selected with Que. and Atlantic (fed/prov) CWS WG. CHRONOS model run for June 2001 base case. CHRONOS model run for June 2001 base case. AQUA Modis Visible Satellite Image – 1730 UTC; June 9, 2004. Note the ‘hazy’ conditions due to the elevated particulate matter content, extending through the bottom half of the image – from Central New Brunswick and south.

8. Ozone and PM - CWS CWS Modeling: AURAMS run for June 2001 base case. AURAMS run for June 2001 base case. Comparison of CHRONOS and AURAMS O 3 /PM with measured data. Comparison of CHRONOS and AURAMS O 3 /PM with measured data. CHRONOS run with no Canadian emissions (transboundary assessment). CHRONOS run with no Canadian emissions (transboundary assessment).

9. Ozone and PM - CWS CWS Modeling Next Steps: run CHRONOS on new grid; AURAMS next. run CHRONOS on new grid; AURAMS next. assess provincial contributions (CHRONOS) assess provincial contributions (CHRONOS) model 2010 emission projections to assess CWS jurisdictional achievement. model 2010 emission projections to assess CWS jurisdictional achievement. select future year emission reduction scenarios (w/Moran) select future year emission reduction scenarios (w/Moran)

10. CHRONOS CWS Modeling Case Study June 20 2001 00Z A: Base Case - all emissionsB: US Emissions only - Can off A-B diff: Canadian contribution

11. Ozone and PM - Research Related Research: enhanced N (Kej) enhanced N (Kej) BAQS BAQS enhanced PMenhanced PM special studies: special studies: ICARTT-TIMSICARTT-TIMS RIALTORIALTO Planned projects: regional air sheds regional air sheds NAESI NAESI 24 hr air shed - Keji

12. Ozone and PM - Research Planned projects: NAESI 1) development standards and guidelines for pesticide spray application (Ernst) 1) development standards and guidelines for pesticide spray application (Ernst) 2) role of ammonia in PM formation (Vet) 2) role of ammonia in PM formation (Vet) N Production – Livestock Manure Beef Cattle /km 2 - 1996 Livestock Manure Production -1996

13. Ozone and PM - Research Regional Health Studies: QEII Health Sciences Study QEII Health Sciences Study - respiratory/cardiac admissions and AQ (incl. pollen/spores). CIHR Centre for Research Development CIHR Centre for Research Development - rural health strategy

14. Ozone and PM - Research Socio-economic: AQVM - AQ health cost- benefit analysis (BAQS) AQVM - AQ health cost- benefit analysis (BAQS) 10% reduction in ozone and a 20% reduction in PM2.5 by 2010 Scenario #3 – used 2001 Census data, reduction in PM2.5 is reached by 2010, constant ambient concentrations between 2010-2019, and ambient data was updated based on Average of NAPS annual data 1997-1999. Expected Reduced Number of Incidences of Health Effects 2010-2019 Saint John County, Charlotte County, Queens County, and Kings County Ozone PM 2.5 Effect Scenario #3 Mortality 2.88 2.88 38.40 38.40 Chronic Bronchitis - 99.40 99.40 Respiratory Hospital Admission 7.37 7.37 7.93 7.93 Cardiac Hospital Admission - 6.69 6.69 Emergency Room Visit 31.50 31.50 36.80 36.80 Asthma Symptom Day 7,558 7,558 10,382 10,382 Restricted Activity Day - 114,388 114,388 Minor Restricted Activity Day 29,412 29,412 - Acute Respiratory Symptoms 56,871 56,871 171,890 171,890 Child Acute Bronchitis - 762 762

15. Ozone and PM - Research Socio-economic: AQVM - AQ health cost- benefit analysis (BAQS) AQVM - AQ health cost- benefit analysis (BAQS) 10% reduction in ozone and a 20% reduction in PM2.5 by 2010 Scenario #3 – used 2001 Census data, reduction in PM2.5 is reached by 2010, constant ambient concentrations between 2010-2019, and ambient data was updated based on Average of NAPS annual data 1997-1999. Undiscounted Future Health Benefits Saint John County, Charlotte County, Queens County, and Kings County ('000's) Ozone PM 2.5 Benefits Scenario #3 Mortality $ 12,648 $ 12,648 $ 168,696 $ 168,696 Chronic Bronchitis $ - $ - $ 24,089 $ 24,089 Respiratory Hospital Admission $ 52 $ 52 $ 56 $ 56 Cardiac Hospital Admission $ - $ - $ 60 $ 60 Emergency Room Visit $ 19 $ 19 $ 22 $ 22 Asthma Symptom Day $ 370 $ 370 $ 509 $ 509 Restricted Activity Day $ - $ - $ 8,922 $ 8,922 Minor Restricted Activity Day $ 1,029 $ 1,029 $ - $ - Acute Respiratory Symptoms $ 910 $ 910 $ 2,750 $ 2,750 Child Acute Bronchitis $ - $ - $ 253 $ 253 Total $ 15,029 $ 15,029 $ 205,357 $ 205,357

16. SMOG R&D Summary Ozone/PM Measurement Network Ozone/PM Climatology Ozone/PM and CWS - exceedences of CWS - transboundary transport - model applications: JIP - marine emissions and regional air quality Special Studies - regional air shed - enhanced N (Keji) - RIALTO - ICARTT/TIMS - NAESI Regional Health Studies Socio-economic (AQVM)

17. Thank You … Keith Puckett Maris Lusis Bob Vet Dave MacTavish Jeff Brook Richard Leaitch & the ICARTT team Jan Bottenhiem Mario Benjamin Gilles Morneau Nedka Pentcheva Sylvain Menard Richard Moffet L-P Crevier Tom Dann Luc White NSDOE NBDELG Michael Hingston … and many others