Presentation on theme: "Disclaimer ”This presentation may contain statements that express management’s expectations about future events or results rather than historical facts."— Presentation transcript:
2 Disclaimer”This presentation may contain statements that express management’s expectations about future events or results rather than historical facts. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements, and CVRD cannot give assurance that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors: relating to the Brazilian economy and securities markets, which exhibit volatility and can be adversely affected by developments in other countries; relating to the iron ore business and its dependence on the global steel industry, which is cyclical in nature; and relating to the highly competitive industries in which CVRD operates. For additional information on factors that could cause CVRD’s actual results to differ from expectations reflected in forward-looking statements, please see CVRD’s reports filed with the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”
5 The challengeA dramatic global demand growth for minerals and metals posed a major challenge.Asset operation at record production levels, maximizing performance.At the same time, CVRD managed to anticipate the low cost Carajás expansion jointly with the building of Pier III of PDM maritime terminal.
6 An excellent performance in 2003 An all-time high top line – US$ billion (+29.5%). Growth driven by larger volumes (63.3%) and higher prices (36.7%).Record net earnings - US$ billion (+127.6%).A record operational profit – EBIT equal to US$ billion (+15.1%) – but lower margins (30.7% vs. 34.7% in 2002).
7 Market Cap as of December 31, 2003 US$ billion A good earnings performance compared to other metals and mining companiesMarket Cap as of December 31, US$ billion2003 Net Earnings US$ million* 2003 CYSource: Bloomberg LP and companies reports
8 Explaining EBIT margin decline Caemi aconsolidation15%Margin reductionFCAconsolidation23%Asset bimpairment16%Tax cprovisions7%OperationalPerformance39%a non-recurring, non-cash asset impairment contributed to a 630 bps reduction in Caemi´s EBIT margin, 25.8% to 19.5%.b non-recurring non-cash events.c without any contemporaneous cash effect.
9 LTM adjusted EBITDA US$ million A record cash generation in 2003 – adjusted EBITDA equal to US$ billion (+19.7%)LTM adjusted EBITDA US$ milliona Caemi contribution to 2003 EBITDA = US$ 88 millionb FCA contribution to 2003 EBITDA = -US$ 28 million
11 Disciplined capital spending ROIC equal to 30.6%, staying above market average and last five years average of 21.2%.Capex budget for 2004 equal to US$ 1.8 billion.Growth capex of US$ 1.2 billion focused on iron ore, bauxite, alumina, copper, potash and port capacity expansions besides purchases of 88 locos and 3,178 railcars.A US$ 78 million multicommodity and global mineral exploration program.
12 Main projects coming on stream in 2004 Carajás 70 MtpyCapacity increase: 14 Mtpy of iron ore.Capex cost of US$ per ton – includes investment in mine, plant, railroad equipment and port.Already in operation.SossegoCapacity: 140,000 ktpy of copper, 3 tpy of gold.Capex cost: US$ 2,760 per ton.Cash cost: US$ 0.30/ lb approximately.The only greenfield copper project to come on stream in the world in 2004 and the largest up to 2007.Ramping up, full commercial production starts in July.
13 Continued improvement in balance sheet – low leverage, high interest coverage, longer debt maturity Average debt life rose from 2.98 years in Dec 2002 to 6.47 years in Jan 2004 without an increase in average debt cost.
14 Total debt / Adjusted EBITDA (x) Continued improvement in balance sheet – low leverage, high interest coverage, longer debt maturityTotal debt / Adjusted EBITDA (x)Average debt life rose from 2.98 years in Dec 2002 to 6.47 years in Jan 2004 without an increase in average debt cost.
15 Sales volumes boomed 2003 vs 2002 a 186.3 million tons Record b 26,295 million NTKa - without CAEMI = million tonsb - without CAEMI = 423,000 tons
16 Iron ore and pellets - growth still constrained by capacity All-time highmillion tons55.746.644.042.342.541.541.1Caemi36.7
17 2003 global seaborne iron ore trade Productivity gains allowed CVRD to maintain its leadership in the global iron ore market2003 global seaborne iron ore trade537.1 million tonsSource: CVRD
18 2003 global seaborne manganese ore trade CVRD is also one of the leading players in the global seaborne manganese ore trade2003 global seaborne manganese ore trade8.2 million tonsSource: CVRD
19 Railroad transportation CVRD logistics services decoupled from Brazil´s GDP growthBrazil GDPCAGR = 1.8%Railroad transportationCAGR = 9.4%billion ntk
21 A structural disequilibrium There is a structural disequilibrium between demand and supply for several minerals and metals, that won’t be corrected in the short term.Mining industry underinvested since the mid-nineties.There is a secular Chinese demand growth.Combination of Chinese growth, a synchronized global recovery and a weak USD contributes to extend the length of the current price cycle, making it similar to the late eighties.CVRD, with large mineral deposits, is one of the main beneficiaries of the current disequilibrium.
22 Global steel consumption is growing fast, generating strong demand for iron and manganese ores Global consumption is expected to increase 5.8% in 2004, China will be responsible for 64%CAGR =5.8%CAGR 04E-07E =3.6%aaIISI mid-case projectionSource: IISI
23 Brazil-Japan and Australia-Japan freight rates differential Freight rate differentials behavior signals a global excess demand for iron oreBrazil-Japan and Australia-Japan freight rates differentialJan/Feb 04Chinese iron imports +36.7% yoyWorld steel output +10.4% yoy02/0418% price increase2-digitiron ore price increaseiron ore price increase9% price increaseiron ore price increase2-digitiron ore price decreaseSource: Clarksons
24 Freight rates are expected to remain high for long Freight rates are expected to remain high for long. However, CVRD iron ore remains highly competitive in Asia.CVRD has the largest and the highest quality reserves allowing flexibility to increase capacity at a relatively rapid pace.Lowest opex and capex costs. Capex costs are approximately half of the competition.Long term contracts and capability to customize products.As it modernizes, value-in-use is becoming more important to the Chinese steel industry, meaning further demand growth for the high Fe low silica CVRD iron ore.
25 We expect global iron ore seaborne trade to grow 7.1% in 2004 million tonsWorld: CAGR 99-03=6.9% CAGR 04E-07E=4.7%China: CAGR 99-03=26.8%China’sshare13.4% 15.4% 20.4% 23.0% 27.6% 30.4%Source: CVRD
26 World aluminum demand is expected to increase by 7 World aluminum demand is expected to increase by 7.5 Mt between 2003 and This mean an additional demand for 17 Mt of alumina, making it hard to correct current disequilibriumSource: Metal Bulletin and LME
27 Copper prices and inventories Global IP growth, declining metal inventories, supply constraints and USD weakness help to support copper prices.Copper prices and inventoriesSource: LME
28 World copper market is expected to remain in deficit until 2007 Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) in 1,000 tonsSource: CRU and CVRD
29 Short term outlook for logistics services Purchase in 2003/2004 of 139 locos and 3,600 wagons for general cargo transportation adds a good deal of capacity to meet existing demand.Steel output, agricultural crops and Brazilian exports are expected to continue to grow at relatively high rates expanding demand for logistics services.Good performance of Brazilian agricultural output in 2004 – 8% expected growth – generates a strong demand for potash.