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STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 1 C.Marques STEPS Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their.

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Presentation on theme: "STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 1 C.Marques STEPS Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their."— Presentation transcript:

1 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 1 C.Marques STEPS Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1A Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10 Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research Workpackage 1 State-of-the-Art / On-going Research Buck Consultants International (BCI), The Netherlands (lead) AUEB, Greece ITS, United Kingdom JRC IPTS, Spain / EU KUL - SADL, Belgium LT, Finland Novem, Netherlands Spiekermann und Wegener (S&W), Germany Stratec, Belgium TIS.PT, Portugal TRL, United Kingdom TRT, Italy TTR, United Kingdom UPM, Spain TASK 1.1 - STATE OF THE ART ON TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND RELATED ENERGY SUPPLY ISSUES

2 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 2 C.Marques THE FIVE OBJECTIVES OF WORKPACKAGE 1, AS SET UP AT THE INCEPTION PHASE, ARE THE FOLLOWING: 1.To assess recent and ongoing developments in alternatives to fossil fuels and internal combustion propulsion systems; 2.To analyse and assess the related needs in the energy supply chains – feasibility of the upstream requirements for the implementation of new technologies; 3.To analyse national policy on transport and energy – underlying scenarios in policy statements, compliance with European guidelines, long term targets and impacts on the adoption of new technologies 4.Analyse case studies and projects of implementation of new technologies in surface transport – reasons for success / failure. Briefly assess their economic impacts in a Cost-Benefit perspective; 5.Overview the ongoing efforts in these fields in other regions of the world (US, Asia) WP1 OVERVIEW

3 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 3 C.Marques THE FIVE OBJECTIVES OF WORKPACKAGE 1, AS SET UP AT THE INCEPTION PHASE, ARE THE FOLLOWING: 1.To assess recent and ongoing developments in alternatives to fossil fuels and internal combustion propulsion systems; 2.To analyse and assess the related needs in the energy supply chains – feasibility of the upstream requirements for the implementation of new technologies; 3.To analyse national policy on transport and energy – underlying scenarios in policy statements, compliance with European guidelines, long term targets and impacts on the adoption of new technologies 4.Analyse case studies and projects of implementation of new technologies in surface transport – reasons for success / failure. Briefly assess their economic impacts in a Cost-Benefit perspective; 5.Overview the ongoing efforts in these fields in other regions of the world (US, Asia) WP1 OVERVIEW

4 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 4 C.Marques TASK 1.1 STATE OF THE ART ON TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND RELATED ENERGY SUPPLY ISSUES Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology A review technological advances during the last years Overview of technologies aiming to increase fuel efficiency and environmental friendliness of the internal combustion engine Improvements in emission levels and efficiency Assess current situation and prospects for usage of alternative fuels. DIESEL NATURAL GAS VEHICLES HYBRID VEHICES ELECTRIC VEHICLES FUEL CELLS (HYDROGEN) TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

5 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 5 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology WoodCoal Natural Gas Nuclear OIL Solar / Fusion Market Share Evolution Source: Auto-Oil, IEA PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES - Market Share Evolution TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

6 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 6 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology (DIESEL) New development in Diesel technology (Common Rail, Direct Injection) along with better filtering of particles appeared as the most relevant improvement regarding improved energy efficiency of vehicles (l/km) with direct impacts in the environmental performance of vehicles, both in private and in public transports. Supply issues do not exist, as it represents the traditional way of doing things. No barriers except for ever more strict EU policy and environmental regulations. TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

7 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 7 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology (DIESEL) DIESEL TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION (NOx & Particulates) TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

8 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 8 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology (DIESEL) DIESEL TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION (Fuel Consumption) TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

9 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 9 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology ( DIESEL) In the last ten years, the diesel engine has undergone a silent revolution, with a breakthrough in technology. A clean diesel of today, compared to a diesel of ten years ago produces: –ten times less emissions and black smoke –twenty-five times less noise It will be further developed toward lower emissions and noise, and will further enhance its well known features of –high energetic efficiency –reliability –low cost It will probably remain for several years as the backbone of road transport. TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

10 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 10 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology (NATURAL GAS) NGVs seem to be quickly coming into the market, seizing and sharing most of the traditional combustion technologies. The technical feasibility has improved along with better tuning of stoichiometric conditions of combustion. Costs are rather similar to conventional Diesel technologies, provided economies of scale in production are attained. NGVs have the potential to contribute to render the transports sector less dependent on oil from now improving security of energy supply in the short term. Somewhat limited supply of natural gas network, makes it more practical in UPT, although acceptability by the industry is still at odds sometimes. Strict regulations are major barriers to wider spread of technology when compared to what happens in other parts of the world (e.g. South America) TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

11 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 11 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology (NATURAL GAS) TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

12 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 12 C.Marques The latest CNG technology: MPI engines Like in petrol engines, injection has replaced the carburettor. Optimum transient behaviour for power and emissions Robust design for reliability Stoichiometric combustion Technology common to cars and heavy vehicles TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology (NATURAL GAS)

13 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 13 C.Marques vs Other Combustion Technologies Emission point of view: –CNG (stoichiometric) technology is today and will remain tomorrow well within EEV limits Cost point of view: –CNG will approach diesel, remaining the cheapest technology for EEV vehicles. Strategic availability: –not concentrated in certain geo-political areas like crude oil Safety with respect to LPG (CNG is lighter than air) Industrial availability: –CNG vehicles are today industrially available, having passed the prototype stage EEV: Enhanced Environmentally Friendly Vehicles and Engines TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology (NATURAL GAS)

14 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 14 C.Marques SOME FACTS ABOUT NGVs: Most countries recognize benefits of NGVS, and plan to expand the use of NGV : Italy has about 400,000 NGVS, with a network of 460 filling stations Russia has about 75,000 NGV's and a fuelling network of some 250 stations. Outside of these countries, there are several thousand NGVs in Europe and a slowly growing fuelling station infrastructure. Argentina has over 1 million NGVs and is converting more than 5,000 vehicles a month with over 1000 fuelling stations in operation or under development. Venezuela has a national NGV programme and is installing 60 fuelling stations Canada has about 36,000 vehicles converted to natural gas, and a government supported NGV programme with incentives for fleets to convert their vehicles, In the U.S.A. there are about 83,000 vehicles fuelled on natural gas, since 1960s. Comparative prices with gasoline and state-of-the-art technologies are only now making natural gas economically and technologically competitive with gasoline vehicles. There are about 1,216 private and public refuelling stations. TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology (NATURAL GAS)

15 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 15 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport Characterisation, current status and potential impacts on fuel efficiency and the environment and barriers to technological applications ELECTRIC VEHICLES HYBRID FUEL CELLS TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

16 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 16 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport ELECTRIC VEHICLES Characteristics TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW Transmission Power Unit (motor/controller) Fuel (batteries) Regenerative Brakes (energy returns to batteries)

17 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 17 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport ELECTRIC VEHICLES Characteristics TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW Fuel costs up to 50% lower Lower maintenance costs Increased rider comfort Higher initial torque provides acceleration Exemption from emission inspections Convenience of home refueling EVs are 100% green vehicles, if energy source is renewable. Problems with energy storage, charging and battery lifetime

18 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 18 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport HYBRID VEHICLES Combined Combustion-Electric engine vehicles seem to be the most promising alternative to pure combustion engines and are characterized by improved energy efficiency levels along with better environmental performance in local areas where electric propulsion takes over. Electric energy is supplied by batteries charged by the combustion engine. Costs are falling and major challenges remain on improving battery lifetime (currently Ni-MH - Nickel Metal Hydride ) and weight. Switching to this technology in the medium term seems viable and would represent a considerable reduction on use of primary sources such as oil. These vehicles comply with partially Zero Emissions standards. TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

19 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 19 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport HYBRID VEHICLES Characteristics Range is greater than an EV. Emissions are reduced. Fuel mileage is improved. There is a potential for zero harmful emissions Transmission Power Unit (motor/controller) Fuel (batteries) Auxiliary Unit Fuel Auxiliary Power Unit Regenerative Brakes Generator TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

20 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 20 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport HYBRID VEHICLES Characteristics Series HEV –Electric motor powers the vehicle. –Engine runs at constant speed and charges the battery pack. –Location of the APU motor/generator is flexible. Parallel HEV –APU engine and electric motor are connected to the drive system--improves efficiency. –Greater power is available using the APU engine and electric motor simultaneously. –No generator is needed. Combination HEV –Characteristics of both series and hybrid HEVs. –More components and a more complex control system is needed. TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

21 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 21 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport HYBRID VEHICLES in Transport Applications Switch between ICE and EV Hybrids can recharge energy lost in braking. Are forerunners for future fully electric vehicles relying on e.g. fuel cells Cars –Lighter materials being used –Gas engine can be turned off when not in use Buses –Hybrids are approx. 50% more efficient –Also reductions in pollution BEST CASE SCENARIO: CITY DRIVING TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW While far from near-zero, hybrid vehicles and advanced ICE vehicles can provide important savings.

22 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 22 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport HYDROGEN in Transport Applications All the advantages of electric vehicles (if running on Fuel Cells), and without the recharging problem Other H2 Vehicle Technologies –Advanced ICE optimised for H2 –Hybrid ICE optimsed for H2 TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

23 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 23 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport HYDROGEN TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW FC VEHICLE INVESTMENTS NEEDED 20302050 Cumulative FC Vehicle Production in OECD (millions) 14261 Share of Vehicle Sales (%)1050 Share of Vehicle Stock (%)2.233 Incremental Cost/Vehicle Optimistic-Pessimistic ($) 3,300- 16,400 1,300- 9,900 Total Incremental Cost Opt-Pessimistic ($ billions) 50- 250 350-2,700 SOURCE: IEA

24 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 24 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport HYDROGEN TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW Massive government intervention is likely needed to overcome the uncertainties and obstacles of a transition period. Government interventions are difficult to maintain over long periods of time (i.e., over changing national administrations). There is substantial uncertainty as to whether fuel cell costs can be brought down to low-enough levels to be acceptable to consumers. Vehicle range is an unsolved problem. Sufficient H2 supply without CO2 emissions is likely to be available before 2050 only if carbon capture & storage can be applied on a large scale. Reducing transport sector CO2 emissions with H2 is far more costly than reducing CO2 emissions in the power sector.

25 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 25 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport Environmental Target s Compliance TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

26 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 26 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport Vehicle cost comparison TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

27 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 27 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport MOST LIKELY STRATEGIES FOR THE NEXT YEARS There are three clearly established possibilities for new technological solutions to deliver near-zero CO2 emission hydrogen electricity biofuels Each fuel has its own set of limitations and technical challenges, however Hydrogen is increasingly seen as the next generation of motor vehicle technology. TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

28 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 28 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport MOST LIKELY STRATEGIES FOR THE NEXT YEARS Continuous improvement of the clean diesel engine, which will remain for years the backbone of road transport Significant increase in the share of NGVs and Hybrid Vehicles (both serial & parallel types), mostly in UPT Improvements in on-board energy storage system for electric based vehicles and deployment of localised electric charging points Adoption of innovative light weight Private vehicle concepts (SMART, etc..) Use of alternative fuels and driveline systems for congested urban areas (urban buses, garbage collection, delivery). Alternative fuels: the preferred choice is CNG/hybrid Electric Vehicles: pure electric (Gulliver, etc..) and hybrid (gas turbine, diesel, etc..) TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

29 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 29 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (NGV) Basic Natural Gas infrastructure for housing and industry is wide spread across Europe, making it rather easy to extend the current network to specific spots. However safety is an important issue and therefore most of the NGV applications remain in the UPT field, where supply infrastructure is build as required at relatively low cost. NGV providers are keen on developing this business area and can be often found in join-ventures with transport operators assuming or sharing costs of the refuelling installations As it happens with other less conventional technologies, and due to the infrastructure supply issue, UPTs are seen as privileged forerunners in the adoption and testing of fuelling stations in most countries. TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

30 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 30 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (NGV) Infrastructure for NGVs is growing quickly as more VEHICLES are either converted or coming in to the market Special attention to South America, where specially Argentina has shown a significant growth in NGV applications in transports, in the wake of the recent economic recession TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

31 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 31 C.Marques In order to become widespread, ELECTRIC VEHICLES require charging stations across cities strategically located in e.g parking lots. This call for some investments, however well below the investment needed to deliver alternative fuels such as Hydrogen, as electric energy is rather omnipresent. In any case it represents a basic requirement on which EVs are completely depending. Several initiatives are already taking place in Europe regarding use of charging stations for e.g electric scooters and other small sized electric vehicles. Safety is not a major problem TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (ELECTRIC)

32 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 32 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (ELECTRIC) TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW VehicleEV Supply Equipment Wiring in garage or carport Electrical service HOME CHARGING DIAGRAM

33 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 33 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (HYBRID) HYBRID VEHICLES do not require any new infrastructure as they rely on existing supply structure for oil products. If running on NG, will however require specific charging stations, as described before. TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

34 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 34 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (H2) To shift from a oil based transport system will require adapting infrastructure of supply depending on choice of technology. Besides the cost of any changes in the supply infrastructure, the most important balance will be the well to wheel balancing, ensuring that effective improvements in energy dependence from fossil fuels and their external consequences are taken into account PROBLEMS WITH PRODUCTION OF ENERGY CARRIERS, SUCH AS HYDROGEN TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW

35 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 35 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (H2) TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW MAJOR ISSUE IS: Investors are reluctant to build H2 capacity in anticipation of uncertain vehicle sales. Auto manufacturers reluctant to build large numbers of H2 vehicles without assured H2 supplies and distribution. CHICKEN AND EGG PROBLEM

36 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 36 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (H2) TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW Energy use can occur at every step in the well-to- wheel-cycle chain: primary fuel mining and preparation primary fuel transport conversion to car fuel car fuel transportation car fuel storage conversion of car fuel to useful energy

37 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 37 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (H2) TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW Alternative Sources of Hydrogen –Coal with & without CO2 capture & storage –Gas with & without CO2 capture & storage –Electrolysis of water with CO2-free electricity –Biomass production There are a variety of hydrogen supply and end-use technologies that have different full fuel chain impacts CO2 emissions and energy resource use

38 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 38 C.Marques Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues TASK 1.1 OVERVIEW ESTIMATION OF FUTURE DELIVERED FUEL SUPPLY COSTS ($/GJ) Gasoline or Diesel Nat GasH 2 : NG-CO 2 H 2 : Coal- CO 2 Production Costs 2.0-2.8NA1.2-2.74.7-6.3 Distribution Costs <1-1 22 Delivered Costs6-93-57-118-11 SOURCE: IEA H 2 :Gsftn Biomass H 2 : On-S Wind H 2 : Off-S Wind H 2 : Solar Thermal Production Costs 5-6555 Distribution Costs 2-5 Delivered Costs10-1817-2322-3027-35

39 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 39 C.Marques Improved DIESEL efficiency Price Refuel Investments Security of supply Cost-effective and commercial potential N/A None in terms of infrastructure Lower Energy use & emissions Slightly Less imports Biofuels Expensive Can be used in existing vehicles and distribution system. Little investment needed. Potentially 100% indigenous Up to 60% CO 2 reduction advantage. Can be mixed in the current diesel or gasoline Energy/ Environment SYNTHESIS OF TASK 1.1

40 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 40 C.Marques NGVs Price Refuel Investments Security of supply Energy/ Environment Cost-effective and commercial potential Limited places to refuel Can be used in existing cars with modifications. Investment needed in refuelling facilities. Potentially 20-25% less consumption and CO 2 emissions than gasoline Is also imported but more evenly distributed Hydrogen Expensive New cars needed. Investment needed in storage and distribution. Need investments in production and distribution Depending on how electricity is produced. No emissions from the car. Depending on type of energy used to produce electricity. SYNTHESIS OF TASK 1.1

41 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 41 C.Marques SYNTHESIS OF TASK 1.1 Price Refuel Investments Security of supply Energy/ Environment Electric cars Batteries are costly Slow but easy recharging More efficient. Emissions depending on how electricity is produced. No emissions from the car Depending on type of energy used to produce electricity Hybrid cars Batteries smaller but still expensive since 2 engines Highly viable Decreased Fuel Dependence. Up to 30% fuels savings and corresponding emissions. Everywhere Highly viable

42 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 42 C.Marques SYNTHESIS OF TASK 1.1 Through 2010 – initiatives will be taken to slow the growth rate of oil use / CO2 as much as possible. To do that, NGVs (ICE) and HYBRID vehicles seem quite promising alternatives right from today, with the particularity that HYBRIDs may clear the way to fully electric vehicles relying either on improved energy storage capacity or on Fuel Cells running on Hydrogen After 2010 - trend seems to be moving seriously towards a much more sustainable transport system, featuring near- zero CO2 emissions and secure sources of energy supply, probably along with a growing share of EVs and HYBRID based on NG and Diesel FOR THE PURPOSE OF MODELLING SCENARIOS, SOME KEY BACKGROUND ASPECTS SEEM TO BE:

43 STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 43 C.Marques Thank you for your attention


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