Presentation on theme: "Biofuels: Think outside the Barrel"— Presentation transcript:
1 Biofuels: Think outside the Barrel Vinod KhoslaJuly 2006Ver 3.2
2 Implausible Assertions ? We don’t need oil for cars & light trucksWe definitely don’t need hydrogen!We don’t need new car/engine designs/distributionRapid changeover of automobiles is possible!Little cost to consumers, automakers, government
3 Not so Magic Answer: Ethanol Cheaper Today in Denver (May’06)!Cheaper Today in Brazil!
4 Plausible? Brazil “Proof”: FFV’s 4% to ~80% of car sales in 3 yrs! Petroleum use reduction of 40% for cars & light trucksEthanol $0.75/gal vs $ /galRumor: VW to phase out of all gasoline cars in 2006?Brazil Ethanol ~ 60-80% reduction in GHGBrazil: $50b on oil imports “savings”!
5 Possible? 5-6m US FFV vehicles, 4b gals ethanol supply, blending California: Almost as many FFV’s as diesel vehicles!US prod. costs: Ethanol $1.00/gal vs Gasoline $1.60-$2:20/galRapid (20%+) increase of US ethanol production in processEasy, low cost switchover for automobile manufacturers
6 Why Ethanol? Today’s cars & fuel distribution (mostly) Today’s liquid fuel infrastructure (mostly)Cheaper in produce (and sell?)Leverages current trends: FFV’s, Hybrids, Plug-ins,..Part of fuel market via “blending” - just add E85Leverages current trendsFlex-fuel vehicles proven in millions!Hybrid drivetrain compatibleLeverages Lightweighting & improved efficiency of carsAlready part of fuel market through “blending”Just add E85 fuel category (third pump!)Existing ethanol market in the billions & growing!Incremental introduction possible & UNDERWAY!Ethanol is cheaper than gasoline at current prices
7 What makes it Probable? Interest Groups Land Use Energy Balance EmissionsKickstart?
8 Why Ethanol? The Interest Group Story Multiple Issues, One AnswerCheaper fuel for consumers (Cheap Hawks)More energy security & diversified sources (Right wingers)Higher farm incomes & rural employment (Sodbusters)Significant carbon emission reduction (Greens)Faster GDP growth, Lower Imports & energy prices….. farmers, automakers, evangelicals, retailers, consumers, conservatives, security hawks, greens are all on the same page… or as Jim Woolsey puts it “The coalition (for now) is of tree huggers, do-gooders, sod busters, cheap hawks, evangelicals, and Willie Nelson “
9 Land Use: Reality (20-50 years) NRDC: 114m acres for our transportation needsJim Woolsey/ George Shultz estim. 60m acresKhosla: m acres…. not including “the future” & “other sources”Ethanol from municipal & animal waste, forestDirect/new synthesis technologies
10 Energy Crops: Miscanthus 1 years growth without replanting!20 tons/acre? (www.bical.net)10-30 tons/acre (www.aces.uiuc.edu/DSI/MASGC.pdf)
11 Biomass Will Make a Difference Turning South Dakota into……a member of OPEC?!TodayTomorrowThousand barrels/dayFarm acres44 Million44 MillionSaudi Arabia9,400515Iran3,900Tons/acreSouth Dakota3,429Gallons/ton6080Kuwait2,600Thousand barrels/day8573,429Venezuela2,500UAE2,500Nigeria2,200Iraq1,700Libya1,650Algeria1,380Indonesia925Qatar800Source: Ceres Company Presentation
12 Export Crop Lands Can Supply ALL our Gasoline Needs US AcreageTotal = 2,300M acresU.S. Cropland Unused or Used for Export CropsIn 2015, 78M export acres plus 39M CRP acres could produce 384M gallons of ethanol per day or ~75% of current U.S. gasoline demandSource: Ceres Company Presentation
14 Fossil Fuel Use: Argonne Study Fossil Energy Balance of Electricity is 25% of Corn Ethanol 12X2X4XLegend EtoH = EthanolAllo = AllocationDisp. = DisplacementRed: Khosla Comments
15 Right Question #1: GHG per Mile Driven CornCellulosic
16 Right Question #2: Petroleum Use Reduction Answer: Even corn ethanol has a 90% reduction in PetroleumTrick: Fossil Energy is not the same as Petroleum
17 Energy Balance: Not Your Father’s Ethanol This chart compares the well-to-wheels (or full fuel cycle) emissions from alternative transportation fuels in pounds of CO2-equivalent per gallon of gasoline energy content equivalent. The basis for each bar is described briefly below:FT (Coal): Fischer-Tropsch fuel produced from coal. Based on a stand-alone plant (R. Williams, Princeton).Gasoline (Tar sands): Gasoline made from synthetic petroleum produced from Canadian tar sands. Based on Oil Sands Fever, Pembina Institute, November 2005.FT (Coal CCD): Fischer-Tropsch fuel produced from coal with carbon dioxide capture and disposal (CCD) from the production plant. Based on a stand-alone plant (R. Williams, Princeton).Gasoline: Conventional gasoline, including upstream emissions based on Argonne GREET model.Ethanol (Corn Coal): Ethanol produced from corn using coal for process energy at the ethanol plant and assuming energy intensive agriculture. Based on Farrell et al., Science 311:506.Ethanol (Today): Estimate of the national average emission rate from the current mix of fuel used for ethanol production and the current mix of dry and wet mills. Based on Farrell et al., Science 311:506.Ethanol (Corn NG): Ethanol produced from corn using natural gas for process energy at a dry mill ethanol plant. Based on Farrell et al., EBAMM model.Ethanol (Corn Biomass): Ethanol produced from corn using biomass for process energy at a dry mill ethanol plant. Based on Farrell et al., EBAMM model.Ethanol (Cellulosic): Ethanol produced from cellulosic biomass using biomass for process energy. Based on Farrell et al., EBAMM model.Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD): Ethanol produced from corn using biomass for process energy at a dry mill ethanol plant with capture and disposal of the CO2 produced from the fermentation process. Based on Farrell et al., EBAMM model subtracting fermentation CO2 of 6.6 pounds of CO2 per gallon of ethanol (http://www.kgs.ku.edu/PRS/Poster/2002/2002-6/P2-05.html)Ethanol (Cellulosic CCD): Ethanol produced from cellulosic biomass using biomass for process energy with capture and disposal of the CO2 produced from the fermentation process. Based on Farrell et al., EBAMM model subtracting fermentation CO2 of 6.6 pounds of CO2 per gallon of ethanol (http://www.kgs.ku.edu/PRS/Poster/2002/2002-6/P2-05.html)Different Corn Ethanol Production Methods Have different EmissionsSource: NRDC
18 Great (5X) Energy Balance for “E3 Biofuels” Corn Ethanol The E3 BioSolution'sa solid waste mangmt. facilityan ethanol plantAn animal feeding operation…. into a self-sustaining, closed loop system.E3 systemvirtually eliminates water, air and odor pollutionproduces ethanol using little or no fossil fuel,
19 NRDC Report - “Ethanol: Energy Well Spent” “corn ethanol is providing important petroleum savings and greenhouse gas reductions”“very little petroleum is used in the production of ethanol …..shift from gasoline to ethanol will reduce our oil dependence”“cellulosic ethanol simply delivers profoundly more renewable energy than corn ethanol”Don’t let best be the enemy of the good
20 Emission Levels of Two 2005 FFVs (grams per mile @ 50,000 miles) Vehicle ModelFuelNOx(CA std.=0.14)NMOG(CA std.=0.10)CO(CA std. =3.4)2005 Ford TaurusE850.030.0470.6Gasoline0.020.0490.92005 Mercedes-Benz C 2400.010.0430.20.040.0280.3source: California Air Resources Board, On-Road New Vehicle and Engine Certification Program,Executive Orders;
21 In Defense of Corn Ethanol TRAJECTORY, TRAJECTORY, TRAJECTORY Ethanol: from 500 to 3000 gallows per acreReduces market risk – Funds cellulsoic ethanolPrimes Infrastructure for cellulosic ethanol, bioholsCompatible with hybrids, plug-ins, light-weighting,…AlternativesBiodiesel trajectory from 500 gallons per acre to 700 gpc?Electric: higher technology risk on batteries, higher consumer costBiohols compatible if electrics get better, cheaper, greener,..Look Beyond “what is” to “what can be”Revolution thru Evolution is Easier
25 Brazil sugar-cane/ethanol learning curve Liters of ethanol produced per hectare since between 1975 to 200430,000??
26 Large Improvements Are Not Just For Silicon Conservative CellulosicBrazil Energy Cane(27tpy/108gpt)Sugar Cane + Baggasse(11 tpy/102gpt)Corn, Cellulose,Cane TodayCellulosic (10tpy/100gpt)
27 Three Simple Action Items Require 70% new cars to be Flex Fuel Vehicles… require yellow gas caps on all FFV’s & provide incentives to automakersRequire E85 ethanol distribution at 10% of gas stations…. for owners or branders with more than 25 stations;Make VEETC credit variable with oil price ($ )…. providing protection against price manipulation by oil interests....ensuring investors long term demand and oil price stability
28 Other “Helpful” Action Items Switch ethanol credit from blenders to “producers” (for 5yrs only for new plants)Allow imports of foreign ethanol tax free for E85 only; extend RFSProvide “cellulosic” credits above “ethanol” credits; monetize energy act creditInstitute RFS for E85 & cellulosic ethanolSwitch CAFÉ mileage to “petroleum CAFÉ mileage”; reform & strengthen CAFELoan guarantees for first few plants built with any “new technology”Institute a carbon cap and trade systemSwitch subsidies (same $/acre) to energy crops
29 Why Now? Projected World Oil Prices (EIA) Alternative Technology Viability ZoneSource: EIA Reports
30 RISK: Oil vs. Hydrogen vs. Ethanol BiofuelsEnergy Security RiskHighLowCost per MileMedMed-HighInfrastructure CostVery LowVery HighTechnology RiskEnvironmental CostMed-LowImplementation RiskInterest Group OppositionPolitical Difficulty?Time to Impact-Very highSource: Khosla
31 A Darwinian IQ Test? Feed mid-east terrorism or mid-west farmers? Import expensive gasoline or use cheaper ethanol?Create farm jobs or mid-east oil tycoons?Fossil fuels or green fuels?ANWR oil rigs or “prairie grass” fields?Gasoline cars or cars with fuel choices?
33 We Must Kick Start the E85 Market!! Additive MarketProjected supply of 173B gallons ethanol for FFV’s by 2030We Must Kick Start the E85 Market!!
34 What is Happening…Problem ZoneSource: JJ&A Fuel Blendstock Report
35 US Ethanol Capacity Build-up ?4.0 bgpy(263 kbd)…and rising!Energy Bill statutory 2012 level:7.5 billion gallons per yearBillionGallonsPerYearThousandBarrelsPerDay2.6 bgpy(171 kbd)4.5 bgpy(293 kbd)Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Renewable Fuels Association
36 Short Term Demand/Supply Forecast PriceSource: JJ&A Fuel Blendstock Report ; Price trend estimates by Vinod Khosla
37 My Favorite FFV . . . SAAB 9-5 Launched May’05 with +25hp with E85 In Europe, the turbo charged SAAB Bio-Power has been very successful.Like all FFVs, the engine control system adjusts the rate of fuel delivery and spark advance depending upon the amount of ethanol present in the fuel tank . . .. . . But additionally, the SAAB Bio-power adjusts the turbo boost level, increasing the effective Compression Ratio based again on the amount of ethanol present in the fuel.This has the effect of recovering through increased thermal efficiency the volumetric fuel economy loss observed in normally aspirated FFVs.SAAB 9-5 Launched May’05 with +25hp with E8525% mileage reduction going to 18%Another big ethanol mileage increase when hp held to gasoline hp
38 Bad Questions, Bad Data, Wrong Questions, Wrong Answers, and more… The False Hope of Biofuels ( James Jordan & James Powell, Washington Post, July 2, 2006)Wrong questions: Not energy balance but balance versus gasoline or electricityWrong data: bushels per acre, gallons per bushel,Use energy content not mileage- who cares about energy balance? Upside?“some researchers even claim that…” – what about many others?Moralizing about food – what about oil excesses? Is President Lulu wrong?Selective facts – quote impractical corn stover but ignore DOE ReportJudgment calls – gallons per acre…and more!
39 WSJ Oped: Myths & Bad Data Abound!! 2/3G oil energy = ½ unit of gasoline.Thus, today’s corn ethanol is2X better than gasolineConservatively we will reach 27tpa&110 gallons per dry ton or about3000 gallons per acre in the US within25 years. Error by 5-7X!!!A $0.10 gasohol credit wouldimply 20% ethanol blend…NO! Average <10%Optimistically, we could achieve5,000 gallons/acre by 2030! Offby 10X?$30-40 per barrel oil price seems like the likely breakeven within 5-7 years for cellulosic ethanol NOT $50-70WSJ Oped: Myths & Bad Data Abound!!
40 Myths Galore! Energy Balance – Not your father’s ethanol Not enough cropland – only if you try to make pigs fly!Food prices or the best thing for poverty?Lower energy content, lower mileage – in which engine?More expensive or poorly managed? US oil or Saudi oil?Existing infrastructure – for E85 or additive? Some or all pumps?Dubious environmental benefits – as additive E20 or E85?Cellulosic ethanol – real or not?Free marketeers hell or level playing field?
41 Positive Energy Balance Only the Negative Studies are Cited!Positive Energy BalanceLorenz & Morris (1995)Wang et al. (1999)Agri Canada (1999)Shapouri et al (1995,2002, 2004)Kim & Dale (2002, 2004)Graboski (2002)Delucchi (2003)NR Canada (2005)Negative Energy BalancePimentel & PatzekWhite House Memo (2005): “It is notable that only one study in the last ten years shows a negative energy balance”
42 Developing Oil vs Ethanol Chevron’s Tahiti field will cost $5.5 billion be expensive to operate being in 24,000 feet of deep ocean. It will generate 125,000 barrels of oil a day or about a billion gallons of gasoline and similar amounts of other products. The same capital investment could produce 4 billion gallons of ethanol capacity (and other animal feed products) at little risk.
43 “Free Markets?”: GAO List of Oil Subsidies Excess of Percentage over cost depletion” worth $82 billion dollar subsidyExpensing of exploration and development cost - $42 billion subsidy.Add on alternative fuel production credit (read oil shales, tar sands etc).Oil and gas exception from passive loss limitationCredit for enhanced oil recovery costsExpensing of tertiary injectants…and other esoteric tools the oil lobby has inserted into various legislation…and the indirect costsKatrina royalty relief to the tune of $7bHealth-care costs of the air pollution they generate, Environmental cleanup costs when they have a spill, Cost of defense in the Mideast to stabilize the supply of crude oil, Cost of global warming and related damage….indirect subsidies have been variously estimated at from a few tens of cents to many dollars per gallon
44 The Possible at “NORMAL” Margins! June 2006, Aberdeen , South Dakota
45 Biomass, Geopolitics & Poverty Biomass & PovertyBeltSee what we are talking about: the area between the lines shows the tropical region, the potential it represents for less developed countries, and the positive impacts on their economies, as well as the global economy, which are extremely relevant to a balanced world scenario and, specifically, create effective conditions for peace. That is a global effort that calls for positive actions on the part of global institutions. It is a great chance to establish more balanced relationships, while fostering development and reducing geographic disparities
48 Flex Fuel Vehicles (FFV) Little incremental cost to produce & low riskConsumer choice: use EITHER ethanol or gasolineEasy switchover for automobile manufacturersFully compatible with Hybrid cars
49 Incremental Cost of FFV Sensor $70 (needed anyway in modern cars; not an additional cost)“Other” costs $30Amortized Certification & Calib. $10 (volume cars)
50 Automakers adopting FFV’s! 2006Ford KGM 250KChrysler 100K+2007GM 400KChrysler 250K2008GM 600KChrysler 500KData from Chrysler PR, GM slides and Ford handout
51 Petroleum Displacement Annual Gasoline Savings of 477 Gallons/Year (Assumes 11,000 miles/year*)E85 FFV on E85 12 mpg (EPA Adjusted Combined)A consumer who fuels a light truck FFV with E85 instead of gasoline will save about 477 gallons of gasoline per year.While the light truck clearly uses more energy overall, the larger petroleum displacement potential is very real.This example shows how powerful bio-fuels can be as a tool for reducing petroleum dependence.E85 FFV on Gasoline 16 mpg (EPA Adjusted Combined)* Personal Transportation Study - Oak Ridge Nat. Lab Data Book
56 Land Use Possibilities Dedicated intensive energy crop plantations“Export crop” landsCrop rotate row crops & “prairie grass” energy cropsCRP lands planted with “prairie grasses” or equivalentCo-production of ethanol feedstocks & animal proteinWaste from currently managed Lands
57 Potential for Billion Tons of Biomass “In the context of the time required to scale up to a large-scale biorefinery industry, an annual biomass supply of more than 1.3 billion dry tons can be accomplished with relatively modest changes in land use and agricultural and forestry practices”Technical Feasibility of a Billion-Ton Annual SupplyUS Department of Energy Report , April 2005.…. Or a 130billion++ gallons per year!
58 Miscanthus vs. Corn/Soy Lower fertilizer & water needsStrong photosynthesis, perennialStores carbon & nutrients in soilGreat field characteristics, longer canopy seasonEconomics: +$3000 vs -$300 (10yr profit per U Illinois)
59 Energy Crops: Switch Grass Natural prairie grass in the US; enriches soilLess water; less fertilizer; less pesticideReduced green house gasesMore biodiversity in switchgrass fields (vs. corn)Dramatically less topsoil lossHigh potential for co-production of animal feed
60 Farmers Are Driven By Economics Per acre economics of dedicated biomass crops vs. traditional row cropsBiomassCornWheatGrain yield (bushel)N/A16246Grain price ($/bushel)$2$3Biomass yield (tons)152Biomass price ($/ton)$20Total revenue$300$364$178Variable costs$84$168$75Amortized fixed costs$36$66Net return$180$120$57Source: Ceres Company Presentation
61 Biomass as Reserves: One Exxon every 10 yrs!! 1 acre100M acres=209 barrels of oil*20.9 billion barrelsProven Reserves (billion barrels)Exxon Mobil22.20BP18.50Royal Dutch Shell12.98Chevron9.95Conoco Phillips7.60* Assumes 10 yr contractSource: Energy Intelligence (data as of end of 2004);Ceres presentation
67 Increasing Tons per Acre… CO2 uptakeLight densityPhotosynthetic EfficiencyFlowering timeIncreased biomassShade toleranceHerbicide toleranceStature controlSource: Ceres Company Presentations
68 Reducing Dollars per Acre… Nitrate Content in Shoots0.511.522.533.54Time PointN (ng/ mg DW)ControlTransgenic*p < 0.001Nitrogen partitioningNitrogen uptakePhotosynthetic efficiency under low nitrogenIncreased root biomassSource: Ceres Company Presentations
69 Increasing Gallons per Ton… Gallons of ethanol per dry ton of feedstock*Composition(How much carbohydrate is there?)Plant structure(How easy is it to access and digest?)*Data represents theoretical yields as reported by IogenSource: Ceres Company Presentations
70 Reducing Cost Through Enzyme Production… Target LineActivation LineUASnTraitUASxSterilityXUASMarkerTP1PromoterProteinSterility FactorFluorescent markerTranscription factorCeres’ proprietary gene expression systemRootLeafStemSeedFlowerCeres promoterIndustry standard promoterTissue-specific promotersSource:Ceres Company Presentations
71 Ceres : Developing Commercial Energy Crops Generating Plant Material for DNA Libraries to be Used in Molecular Assisted BreedingTransformation with Ceres’ TraitsEmbryogenic callus1 day after trimmingShoot regenerated from callusPlant regenerationRe-growth after 15 daysCeres expects to have proprietary commercial varieties ready for market in 2-3 years and transgenic varieties in 5-7Source: Ceres Company Presentations
72 Strategy & Tactics Choice: Oil imports or ethanol imports? GDP – “beyond food to food & energy “ rural economyAdd $5-50B to rural GDPBetter use for subsidies through “energy crops”Rely on entrepreneurs to increase capacityBiotechnology & process technology to increase yields
74 E85 Availability and Appeal September 2005 As I mentioned, the availability of high concentration blends of ethanol is pretty limited, about 600 stations in the U.S. today.In this unscientific sampling of stations in the United States in September 2005, E85 was priced an average of 35 cents below unleaded regular gasoline.Obviously, this price differential is subject to many factors and changes constantly Not the least of which is demand for ethanol to replace MTBE in low concentration blends like E6 or E10.
76 Ethanol FFVs Are Here! California’s Motor Vehicle Population Vehicle TypeGasolineDieselEthanol FFVHybrid gas/elecCNGElectricLPG/otherH2Light-Duty24,785,578391,950257,69845,26321,26914,42553813Heavy-Duty372,849471,340--5,4018061,172source: California Energy Commission joint-agency data project with California Department of Motor Vehicles. Ethanol FFV data as of April 2005; all other data as of October 2004.
77 Source: Encyclopedia of Energy (Ethanol Fuels , Charlie Wyman) CostsWet MillsDry MillsOverallWeighted AverageElectricity & Fuel$0.112/gallon$0.131/gallon$1.118/gallonOperating Labor,$0.124/gallon$0.109/gallonRepairs and MaintenanceYeast, Enzymes, Chemicals and Other$0.114/gallon$0.090/gallonAdministration, Insurance and Taxes$0.038/gallon$0.037/gallonAll Other Costs$0.072/gallon$0.051/gallonTotal Cash Costs$0.46/gallon$0.42/gallonCombined with Net $0.48/gallon $0.53/gallon$0.94/gallon“NET” cost of corn Depreciation (plant & Equip)$0.10-$0.20 $0.10-$0.20Note: Capital costs of ethanol production are estimated to be between$1.07/gallon to $2.39/gallon, varying with facility type, size, and technology.Source: Encyclopedia of Energy (Ethanol Fuels , Charlie Wyman)
78 NY Times Poll (3/2/2006) Washington mandate more efficient cars – 89% No on Gasoline tax -87%No on Tax to reduce dependence on foreign oil -37%No on gas tax to reduce global warming – 34%
79 References NRDC Report: “Growing Energy” (Dec 2004) George Schultz & Jim Woolsey white paper “Oil & Security”Rocky Mountain Institute: “Winning the Oil Endgame”The Future of the Hydrogen Economy ( )Fuel Ethanol: Background & Public Policy Issues (CRS Report for Congress, Dec. 2004)
80 ETHANOL: MARKET PERSPECTIVE Luiz Carlos Corrêa CarvalhoSugar and Alcohol Sectorial Chamber,Ministry of Agriculture, BrazilAssessing the Biofuels OptionJoint Seminar of the International Energy Agency,the Brazilian Government and theUnited Nations FoundationParis, 20 – 21 June 2005
87 The Ethanol application as vehicular fuel in Brazil. Brazilian Automotive Industry Association - ANFAVEAEnergy & Environment CommissionHenry Joseph Jr.
88 LIFE CYCLE GHC EMISSIONS IN ETHANOL PRODUCTION AND USEKg CO2 equiv./ t caneAverageBest ValuesEmissions34,533,0Avoided Emissions255,0282,3Net Avoided Emissions220,5249,3Anhydrous Ethanol2,6 to 2,7 t CO2 equiv./m3 ethanolAs a result, when emissions are compared upon replacement of gasoline and fuel oil with ethanol and sugar-cane bagasse, there is a saving or uptake of 2.6 tons of CO2 equivalent for anhydrous ethanol, and of 1.9 ton of CO2 equivalent for hydrous ethanol. This is the key to the success of biofuels!Source: Leal, Regis, CO2 Life Cycle Analysis of Ethanol Production and Use, LAMNET, Rome, may 2004
89 Comparative Energy Balance Raw MaterialTotal Energy RatioCorn1,21Switchgrass4,43Sugarcane8,32The new world of biofuels has specific rules: there must be clearly positive life-cycle energy and life-cycle GHG emissions. Concerning raw materials, the first case shows sugar-cane with a great advantage. For every input energy unit, the production is 8.2 times bigger, on average.You can see results around 10,2 times!Source: Leal, Regis, CO2 Life Cycle Analysis of Ethanol Production and Use, LAMNET, Rome, may 2004
90 21,87 6,01 1 ETHANOL AND EMPLOYMENT ETHANOL “C” GASOLINE “A” GASOLINE ( IN THE PRODUCTION OF THE VEHICLE AND OF FUEL)VEHICLESRATIO OF EMPLOYMENTSETHANOL21,87“C” GASOLINE6,01“A” GASOLINE1Another both interesting and appealing impact is the logic of the relation between the jobs created in the gasoline supply chain and those created in the ethanol supply chain when a vehicle is produced. The difference, which is several times more favorable to ethanol, is a decisive factor in the option to fuel FFVs with ethanol. It is always important to analyze the entire supply chain. The vehicle is the back-end of the analysis and the indication of the differences.Considering that an ethanol driven vehicle consumes, on average,2.600 litres of ethanol per year ( one million litres of ethanol, peryear, generates 38 direct jobs );for gasoline, spends 20% less fuel( one million litres of gasoline, per year, generates 0,6 direct jobs);“C” gasoline contains 25% ethanol.Source: Copersucar/Unica/ANFAVEA/PETROBRAS
103 Hydrogen vs. Ethanol Economics Raw Material Costs: cost per Giga Joule (gj)= $11.2/gj (Lower cost than natural gas)= $2.3/gj (with 70% conversion efficiency)Hydrogen from electricity costly vs. Ethanol from BiomassHydrogen from Natural Gas no better than Natural GasCost multiplier on hydrogen: distribution, delivery, storageHigher fuel cell efficiency compared to hybrids not enough!Hydrogen cars have fewer moving parts but more sensitive, less tested systems and capital cost disadvantageReference: The Future of the Hydrogen Economy ( )
104 Hydrogen vs. EthanolEthanol: US automakers balance sheets ill-equipped for hydrogen switchoverEthanol: No change in infrastructure in liquid fuels vs. gaseous fuelsEthanol: Current engine manufacturing/maintenance infrastructureEthanol: switchover requires little capitalEthanol: Agricultural Subsidies are leveraged for social goodEthanol: Faster switchover- 3-5 years vs 15-25yrsEthanol: Low technology riskEthanol: Incremental introduction of new fuelEthanol: Early carbon emission reductions
105 Three of Ten Important Sources Stovers: 250m tonsWinter Crops: 300m tonsSoybeans: 350m tonsProduction of corn stover and stalks from other grains (wheats, oats) totals well over 250 million dry tons. A combination of different crop rotations and agricultural practices (e.g. reduced tillage) would appear to have potential for a large fraction of these residues to be removed. For example, although complete removal of corn stover would result in a loss of about 0.26 tons of soil carbon per year, cultivation of perennial crops (e.g. switchgrass, Miscanthus) adds soil carbon at a substantially higher rate. Thus, a rotation of switchgrass and corn might maintain or even increase soil fertility even with 100% stover removal. This, however, brings up questions about the length of time land might be grown in each crop, since switchgrass would benefit from longer times to distribute the cost of establishment while corn would benefit from short times to maintain productivity and decrease losses due to pests. It is likely that some crop other than switchgrass as it exists today would be best for incorporation into a relatively high frequency rotation with corn. Targets for crop development could be identified and their feasibility evaluated.Winter cover crops grown on 150 million acres = 300 million tons of cellulosic biomass.In recent years, U.S. soybean production has averaged about 1.2 tons of dry beans per acre annually. Given an average bean protein mass fraction of about 0.4, the annual protein productivity of soybean production is about 0.5 tons protein per acre. Perennial grass (e.g. switchgrass) could likely achieve comparable protein productivity on land used to grow soybeans while producing lignocellulosic biomass at about a rate of about 7 dry tons per acre annually. The limited data available suggest that the quality of switchgrass protein is comparable to soy protein, and technology for protein extraction from leafy plants is rather well-established. The 74 million acres currently planted in soybeans in the U.S. could, in principle, produce the same amount of feed protein we obtain from this land now while also producing over 520 million tons of lignocellulosic biomass. Alternatively, if new soy varieties were developed with increased above-ground biomass (option 4, Table 1), this could provide on the order of 350 million tons of lignocellulosic biomass – although soil carbon implications would have to be addressed.Source: Lee R. Lynd, “Producing Cellulosic Bioenergy Feedstocks from Currnently Managed Lands,”Source: Lee R. Lynd, Dartmouth; “Producing Cellulosic Bioenergy Feedstocks from Currently Managed Lands;” Draft-work-in-progress; October 7, 2005
108 11. The Fossil Fuels Carbon Dioxide at Atmosphere Photosynthesis lakesOceans,RootsBreathingFossil Fuels:Coal, Natural Gas, OilVegetableGarbageSoil and Organisms BreathingAnimal BreathingPlants BreathingPhotosynthesisPlantsPhotosynthesis of AlgasAquatic Life Breathing