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Commodity Equities Les Patrimoniales Pau, June 16 th, 2011 Arnaud du Plessis Global Commodity Team Senior Portfolio Manager This material is solely for.

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Presentation on theme: "Commodity Equities Les Patrimoniales Pau, June 16 th, 2011 Arnaud du Plessis Global Commodity Team Senior Portfolio Manager This material is solely for."— Presentation transcript:

1 Commodity Equities Les Patrimoniales Pau, June 16 th, 2011 Arnaud du Plessis Global Commodity Team Senior Portfolio Manager This material is solely for the attention of professional investors (see more details and definitions at the end of the presentation).

2 Page2 Table of Contents 01 Supporting drivers for commodities 02Commodity Outlook –Energy –Mining –Gold –Agriculture 03Commodity Equities in Asset Allocation : Exemple of gold equities 04Commodity Expertise 05Appendix 06Q & A

3 Page3 Supporting Drivers For Commodities 01

4 Page4 Big picture supportive for commodity equities Developed Emerging Growth Low, improvingHigh, stable / decelerating? Interest rates Low, to edge upRising Inflation Low, rising (energy) High, rising (soft commodities) A favourable environment for commodities Growth: More homogenous Improving macroeconomic data in the West; reconstruction in MENA and Japan: => commodity demand likely to be less dependant on Asian and Latam emerging countries Rates: expected to edge up Developed countries about to start a cycle of rising rates, but no sharp upturn anticipated Interest rate hikes to continue in emerging markets in an attempt to curb inflation, but close to the end Inflation: commodity-driven. A rising pressure for all countries As commodity inflation will result more and more from supply issues than from growth, monetary policies could be less efficient to stop rising prices. Commodity inflation: should drive more investments into hard assets

5 Page5 Our view on the super cycle The next decade: –Global demand will continue to be strong for commodities, still supported mainly by urbanization and industrialization in Emerging countries –Demand response to higher prices will be slow: a long, difficult and costly process –Main drivers for commodity prices will come increasingly from supply constraints Supply constraints + Inflation: another leg of the Super Cycle ahead Demand from developed countries matched with full supply availability 10 years of booming commodity demand from Emerging countries; Supply constraints on a rising trend Source: Reuters

6 Page6 Our general view on Commodities markets Commodity prices are expected to remain very firm as supply constraints increase market imbalance for most commodities. The last series of companies reports have shown very poor figures on production volumes. High prices driven by supply constraints, likely to limit the impact of rising interest rates Consensus is revising upwards estimates for 2011 Global demand for commodities Global demand from China Supply constraints over time Supply constraints becoming the supporting factor for prices

7 Page7 Gold Environment Source: US Global Investors

8 Page8 Commodity Outlook 02

9 Page9 Energy: Short term supply risks Unrest in several countries puts short term supply at risk For the moment, only part of the Libyan production is disrupted OPEC spare capacity represents 6% of world production (5.2mmbbls/day), of which 70% is in Saudi Arabia Countries most at risk represent 74% of the spare capacity which explains the nervousness on the oil price Oil prices will factor in a higher political risk premium in the future Oil price spikes how much should be political premiums? Source: Financial Times

10 Page10 Energy: Long term supply constraints Source: UN, McKinsey Depletion of existing fields: 5% per year = 4mmbbls/day = 1 Iran per year Geopolitical risk: New fields in more challenging areas = higher finding & development costs OPEC market power to increase: 40% of oil production and 77% of reserves Operating risk: Impact of Macondo oil spill on resource access and costs Easing of Supply constraints to come from the rapid development in Iraq and Brazil Supply constraints will put a floor on price levels Reserve replacementProduction costs ($/b) Production increasing more rapidly than discoveries

11 Page11 Copper: Constraints deriving from risk exposure of new mines Source: Macquarie, SG Cross Asset Research, Brook Hunt 1: country risk derived from Global Insights country risk rankings New supply: little to come …………………………………..and more risky A continued deficit in copper concentrates markets 25-35 year reserves, but associated risk going higher 2.7% expected deficit in 2011. Inventories below 4 weeks; ETF impact

12 Page12 Deteriorating accessibility: geology, technology, costs, environment…. Deteriorating infrastructure: harbours, railways, roads, power, water, … Source: Brook Hunt *: all new discoveries over 4 millions tons of contained copper Copper: Constraints through the supply chain *

13 Page13 Managers views on Gold market Source: GFMS Attractive macro and fundamental outlook Today Historical price evolution of the physical Gold and Gold equities Relative valuation

14 Page14 Gold: two main factors strongly in place Sovereign risk remains high in Europe Japan and US could be the next Source: Bloomberg Rising currencies volatility Dollar leading position much debated Gold: reinforced save haven appeal Search for safe havenCurrency alternative

15 Page15 What could happen with US Debt…

16 Page16 Source : WGC, BofA Merril Lynch Global Commodities Research Central Bank: reserves diversification – In a new Era Market imbalance as Central Banks sales have dried up Reserve diversification still strongly needed Market imbalance as Central Banks sales have dried up Reserve diversification still strongly needed Central banks are once again net buyers after being net sellers for 21 years Gold accounts for only 5% of reserves of BRIC Central Banks compared to >50% in developed countries

17 Page17 Soft commodity : strong demand growth Source : United Nations, USDA, Bloomberg Change in global population (bn inhbts) Global meat consumption (kg/capita/yr) US biofuel production quotas (bn l) Demography Economy Energy

18 Page18 Soft commodity : supply constraints Source : USDA, FAO, IPCC Global arable land (ha/inhbt) None Slight Moderate Severe Very severe Not listed Severity of Human induced soil degradation Impact of global warming on farmland productivity Urbanisation Soil degradation Climate change

19 Page19 Commodity Equities in asset allocation: Example of Gold Equities 03

20 Page20 Amundi Rendez-Vous March 2011- page 20 Gold Equities : diversification within a Global Equity portfolio Low correlation with Global equities Asymmetry of returnsHigher returns with higher volatility Strong diversification benefits with Gold Equities Data : MSCI AC World Investable Market U$, DJTM World Gold Mining U$, June 1994- December 2010 Data : MSCI AC World Investable Market U$, DJTM World Gold Mining U$, Monthly returns matrix, June 1994- December 2010

21 Page21 Amundi Rendez-Vous March 2011- page 21 Gold equities in a global portfolio: 2 examples Gold Equities allocations generate more performance without added risk Gold Equities performance asymmetry enables to control volatility Source : Datastream, Amundi Research Data: MSCI AC World Investable Market U$, DJTM WORLD GOLD MINING U$; June 1994- December 2010 Gold Equities Allocation improve Risk/Return Profile

22 Page22 Commodity Expertise 04

23 Page23 Commodity equities: the obvious winners of higher prices High cash flows to continue Producers to reduce further debt levels and turn net cash positive Cash flow generation quicker than capital expenditure Cash Flows Cash surplus to be returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks More return than with physical commodities High returns M&A 2010 a record year for M&A. For example in mining with over $134bn M&A strong start in 2011 Favorable factors for equity shareholders

24 Page24 Return of M&A activities – most recent deals M&A the only option for quick production growth In the portfolio

25 Page25 Source : Datastream Equities outperform physical commodities in the long run

26 Page26 The fund does not invest directly in commodities, but through equities only. Rather than adding to price pressure and speculation We hold a long term-approach, as our goal is to identify throughout the entire value chain the sectors and companies that will most benefit from supply/demand imbalance and best deliver on their growth potential through a strong and sustainable development. The minimum recommended investment horizon is 5 years. Investment Philosophy

27 Page27 USD 3.3 bn AuM (04/30/2011) 19 years average experience Global Commodity Equity team Global Resources Anne Ruffin (Head of the team since 98) USD 1 250mHenrietta Lance Annualised excess return of 2.0% - IR of 0.32 1 Energy & Renewables Stéphane Soussan USD 320 m Annualised excess return of 5.0% - IR of 0.53 1 Gold Arnaud du Plessis USD 728 m Annualised excess return of 4.5% - IR of 0.43 1 Agriculture & Water Nicolas Fragneau USD 496 m Annualised excess return of 4.2% - IR of 0.43 3 Global Mining Anne Ruffin USD 517 m Annualised excess return of 3.8% - IR of 0.92 2 1 since Dec 31, 98 2 since Apr 26, 10 3 since Dec 12, 07

28 Page28 Amundi capabilities in commodity expertise: Global Resources Annualised return as of 30 th April 20111 Y3 Y5 Y7Y10Y Since inception Composite Global Resources25.0%3.6%8.6%17.3%15.3%14.4% Benchmark*27.0%5.4%9.2%15.9%14.1%12.6% Benchmark Performance in USD since inception (31 December 1998) *Benchmark : 1/3 MSCI World Materials – 1/3 MSCI World Energy – 1/3 FTSE Gold Mines Source: Amundi Gross performance in USD as at the end of April 2011. Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns Composite Global Resources Calendar yr returns (gross) CompositeBench Out- perf 199940.3%18.9%21.2% 2000-13.2%-9.3%-3.9% 2001-0.5%0.3%-0.8% 200211.0%10.6%0.4% 200342.0%36.2%5.8% 200412.2%11.6%0.6% 200529%25.4%3.6% 200622.4%20.3%2.4% 200735.6%29.0%6.6% 2008-39.3%-34.6%-4.7% 200944.0%38.6%5.6% 201021.2%21.1%0.1% 2011 YTD7.0%8.0%-1.0% Consistent outperformance over the past 12 years

29 Page29 Amundi capabilities in commodity expertise: Global Gold Annualised return as of 30th April 20111 Y3 Y5 Y7Y10YSince inception Composite Global Equities – Gold24.3%11.8%8.3%18.3%21.2%18.2% FT Gold Mines20.4%14.0%9.3%16.8%19.0%13.6% Benchmark Performance of Gold Equities composite in USD since inception (31 December 1998) Composite Global Equities - Gold Source: Amundi. Gross performance in USD Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns. Annualised excess return since Dec 31 1998: 4.6% Information ratio since Dec 31 1998: 0.50 Calendar yr returns (gross) CompositeBench Out- perf 1999111.1657.6053.56 2000-30.86-31.250.39 200112.5823.67-11.09 200258.4855.483.00 200352.2841.9010.38 2004-3.23-7.724.49 200532.7728.754.02 200624.7113.2911.43 200718.521.94-3.43 2008-31.00-19.24-11.75 200942.4130.5011.91 201031.8529.592.26 2011 YTD2.100.911.19 Consistent outperformance over the past 12 years

30 Page30 Consistent outperformance over the past 7 years Annualised return as of 30 th April 20111 Y3 Y5 Y7Y Since inception Composite Global Energy18.0%0.2%2.1%11.9%12.6% Benchmark*15.6%1.1%2.9%10.4%11.3% Benchmark Performance in EUR since inception (01 January 2004) *Benchmark : MSCI WORLD ENERGY (DS) Source: Amundi Gross performance in EUR as at the end of April 2011. Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns Composite: 150M EUR Global Energy Calendar yr returns (gross) CompositeBench Out- perf 200418.4%18.9%-0.5% 200561.7%48.4%13.3% 20062.9%5.4%-2.5% 200723.1%17.1%6.0% 2008-39.9%-34.9%-5.0% 200929.9%22.3%7.6% 201020.2%19.7%0.6% -0.1%5.4%5.3% 2011 YTD

31 Page31 Amundi capabilities in commodity expertise: Global Agriculture 30/04/2011 (USD)2011 (Ytd)201020092008 Inception (31/03/08) ann Composite Global Agriculture 8.0%22.06%64.5%- 47.9%4.0% S&P Composite7.9%19.0%41.6%- 44.1%- 0.1% Source : Amundi From inception to 31 August 2010: S&P Global Natural Resources Agriculture From 31 August 2010: S&P Global Agribusiness

32 Page32 Appendix 05

33 Page33 Anne Ruffin Head of Commodity Equities Senior Portfolio Manager Global Resources; Global Mining Anne is Head of the Global Commodity Equity team and has been managing Commodity Equity portfolios since 1998, including LCL Actions Or Monde. Prior to that, she worked as an Auditor with Ernst & Young 1988-1991 within the oil department. Anne Ruffin joined Amundi in 1991 where she worked as a Financial Engineer until 1994, a Financial Analyst on commodities 1995-1998, and then a Global commodity Portfolio Manager 1998 - 2010. Anne holds a Masters in Banking & Finance and in Financial Engineering (1988) from Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris, one of Frances top Business schools. She is also a Graduate of the French Society of Security Analysts (SFAF). Global Commodity Equity Team Arnaud du Plessis joined Amundi in November and has taken responsibility of the Gold expertise, in close cooperation with Anne. Arnaud was previously head of cyclicals at Natixis Asset Management (2002-2010). He co-managed gold equities and cyclical funds. More particularly, he was in charge of precious metals and basic materials, as well as energy. Prior to that, he worked as a European equities portfolio manager with Credit Lyonnais Asset Management (1998-2002) after being Head of derivative trading (1989-1998).Arnaud started his career with Patrice Wargny SA in 1988 as an option broker. Arnaud is a Graduate of Institut Supérieur de Gestion and also of the French Society of Security Analysts (SFAF). Arnaud du Plessis Senior Portfolio Manager Global Gold

34 Page34 Global Commodity Equity team Stéphane Soussan Portfolio Manager Global Energy, Renewable Energy Stéphane started out as a Fund Manager Assistant at Sinopia Asset Management in 1996. He joined Oddo in 1998 as a sell-side Analyst for oil and metal sectors and went on to Exane BNP Paribas in 2001 where he was a sell-side Analyst for the oil sector. In 2008 he joined the Global Resources team as a portfolio manager focusing on energy and renewable energy sectors. Stéphane is a graduate from ESSEC, he has a Master of finance from IEP and is a SFAF member (Société Française des Analystes Financiers). He has more than 14 years experience in asset management. Research team Nicolas joined Amundi in 2006 as a Commodity Equity portfolio manager within the Global Commodity Equity team. Prior to joining the company he worked as a North American & Energy equity portfolio manager at Raymond James Asset Management after joining in 2000. He began his career at Cap Gemini in 1999 as an IT developer. Nicolas holds a Masters degree in Management Science (Specialization in Finance) from the University of Paris IX Dauphine (2000). He is a graduated of the French Society of Security Analysts (SFAF) and the CEFA (2003). Nicolas Fragneau Portfolio Manager Global Agriculture, Fishery, Water

35 Page35 Global Commodity Equity team Henrietta Lance started her career in London in 1985 with Prudential Bache. In 1989 she moved to Paris to specialise in European equities first working for François Dufour Kervern. In 1992 she joined Société Générale and then in 1999 she moved to Exane before returning to Société Générale Asset Management in early 2007. She joined the Global Resources team in October 2008. Henrietta graduated from Edinburgh University, she holds the CIIA and is a SFAF member (Société Française des Analystes Financiers). She has more than 25 years experience in asset management. Henrietta Lance Senior Portfolio Manager Global Chemicals and other Materials


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