Presentation on theme: "1 Energy Facility Project Drivers Wyoming Pipeline Authority July 2006."— Presentation transcript:
1 Energy Facility Project Drivers Wyoming Pipeline Authority July 2006
2 UniField Profile UniField Profile Markets 70% Power Generation, Hydrocarbon, Basic Chemicals 20% Cement, Minerals & Metals 10% Advanced Materials & Specialty Chemicals Distribution West & Upper-Midwest Billings, Vancouver WA Bismarck 10% annual growth Product Process Facility Capital Projects Up to $250MM Facility Revamp & Expansion Pilot & Demonstration Plants Technology Support – Not a Driver History Hydrocarb, Power & Metals - 87 Intl Process Technology - 96 Specialty Chem - WA in 97 ND & MN - 04 Leader of Industry Followers
3 25 Yr Market Profiles Petroleum Refining Industrial/Commercial Power Generation Oil & Gas
4 Regional Profile WY & Dakotas – Fossil Resources – No Markets – Market Access Impediments – Open to Development WA, OR, UT & Idaho – Few Fossil Resources – Hydro & Wind – Mod to Large Markets – Less Open to Development Montana – Fossil Resources – No Markets – Long Distance to Markets – Less Open to Development
6 Industrial & Commercial 1970s – 80s: Large Central Stations – Low Power Prices - Small Coal-fired Plants Closed & Low Cogeneration Starts - Conversion from Coal to Gas – Low Capital Spending. 1990s - 02: Low Gas Supply & CAA Compliance – Industrials Convert from Gas to Coal – PRB Coal Development & Prices Increase - Rail Transportation Tightens – High International Capital Spending. 2003 - 05: High Fuel & Power Prices – Some Convert from Coal to Coke – Aluminum & Metals Move Offshore - Wind, Biomass & Solar Considered – Unprecedented Industrial Spending. 2006 - 10: Fuel & Power Prices, Tight Transport & Global Warming Concern – Coal Cogeneration at all Scales – Green Buildings, LEED & EnergyStar Increase - CHCP, Solar & Conservation Projects – Tighter Money Supply & Lower Commodity Prices – Higher Imports.
7 Power Generation 1970s - 90: Low Gas Prices & Large Central Plants – High Installation of Gas Plants - Low Installation of Coal-fired Plants – Coal CFB Commercialization. 1990s - 02: Low Gas Supply & CAA Compliance – PRB Coal Compliance Coal Conversions – Low New Plant Construction. 2002 - 05: Blackouts - High Power Prices & Higher Gas Plant Install - Enron Cancellation of Gas Projects – Housing Construction & Gas Prices Continue – Coal Plant Construction Increase – IGCC & Super Criticals Commercialized. 2006 - 10: High Power Prices, Tight Transmission & Global Warming Concern – Continued Gas Projects & Low Coal Power Acceptance – Continued High Gas Prices - Increased IGCC, SC, CO2 Capture & Gasification – Transmission Constrained.
8 Oil & Gas 1980 - 2000: Low Gas Prices – Low onshore E&D – Development of EOR, CO2 cycling & CBM Extraction. 2000 - 02: Low Gas Supply – Increased Gas Prices & Technology Deployment. 2003 - 05: Continued High Gas Prices & Initiation of CO2 Sequestration – Increased Production & EOR Demand – Increased interest in CO2 Capture. 2006 - 10: Tight Power Transmission, Rail & Low Coal Generation Acceptance– Stranded Coal, Coke & Lignite – High Oil & Gas Prices – EOR, Merchant & Refinery Gasification, Pre & Post Combustion CO2 control – Pipeline Capacity Expansion.
9 Project Drivers Capital – Technology – Production Scale – Site – Escalation Market Timing – Lead-times – Project Duration Infrastructure – Utilities, Transportation & Interconnect – Air permitting & Water availability – Construction & Operating labor Finance – Margin – Term – Interest rate
10 General 2006 – 10 Outlook Low Acceptance of Coal-fired Power & Global Warming Concern – Increased interest in CO2 Control – Technology Investment. Tight Power, Rail & Pipeline Transmission - Continued High Fuel Prices - Stranded Coal, Crude, Coke & Lignite Assets – Project Investment. Tightened International Money Supply High Fuel & Power Prices – Increased Imports & Interest Rates – Softening in Demand, Greater Commodity Supply – Lower Margins - Decreased Technology & Projects Investment. * Contingent on Political Stability