Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

ARE WE PRICED FOR PERFECTION?

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "ARE WE PRICED FOR PERFECTION?"— Presentation transcript:

1 ARE WE PRICED FOR PERFECTION?
Richard Jenkins and Bill Kanko Black Creek Investment Management “UNIQUE INSIGHTS. PROPRIETARY IDEAS” TM

2 ARE WE PRICED FOR PERFECTION?
Lehman Brothers crisis – 2008 Eurozone crisis – 2011 Tapering crisis – 2013??? We have seen similar things before ...

3 10-YEAR RETURNS – PATTERN OF NORMALIZATION
Returns average out over time … go where they have been lower and valuations are more attractive Cumulative Return from Aug 2003 to Aug 2013 147.5% 118.0% 72.6% 51.6% 20.7% Source: Paltrak

4 Cumulative Return from Aug 2008 to Aug 2013
5-YEAR RETURNS Cumulative Return from Aug 2008 to Aug 2013 41.4% 11.0% 9.1% 6.7% 5.7% Source: Paltrak

5 GLOBAL MARKET OUTPERFORMANCE LED BY U.S.
Cumulative Return from Aug 2011 to Aug 2013 51.1% 38.8% 29.2% 5.6% 5.3% Source: Paltrak

6 Cumulative Return from Sep 2008 to Aug 2013
BLACK CREEK INTERNATIONAL EQUITY: SIGNIFICANT OUTPERFORMANCE SINCE INCEPTION OF THE FUND Cumulative Return from Sep 2008 to Aug 2013 80.5% 28.7% 24.8% 19.9% Source: Paltrak

7 BLACK GLOBAL LEADERS FUND: OUTPERFORMANCE SINCE MANAGED BY BLACK CREEK
Cumulative Return from Jun 2006 to Aug 2013 40.4% 33.7% 28.3% 18.2% Source: Paltrak

8 Cumulative Return from Jan 2007 to Aug 2013
BLACK CREEK GLOBAL BALANCED: OUTPERFORMANCE SINCE INCEPTION OF THE FUND Cumulative Return from Jan 2007 to Aug 2013 29.1% 17.4% 8.4% Source: Paltrak

9 GLOBAL STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
Real estate Bonds Cash Equities Commodities – hard, soft Art, collectibles, etc.

10 GLOBAL STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
Global equities long-term average p/e (14x) Average P/E Source: Thomson Datastream and I/B/E/S

11 OUR MARKET VIEWS Flight to quality (defensive assets) similar to Don’t confuse yield with value There is a premium on “safety” European crisis – There is light at the end of the tunnel U.S. – has turned the corner—really! China – now the hard work begins! Africa/South America – If China catches a cold? Deleveraging = slower consumption-led growth – we still believe this Low interest rates are creating overcapacity everywhere

12 RELATIVE P/E VALUATION: GLOBAL STAPLES VS. BROAD MARKET
+1 standard deviation -1 standard deviation Source: Morgan Stanley

13 CURRENCY ACCORDING TO THE BIG MAC INDEX
Source: The Economist, July 2013

14 CURRENCY SHOULD BE A TAILWIND
CAD overvalued to: What is expensive? USD: 18% Mexico: 58% Euro: 11% Sterling: 11% China: 54% Korea: 39% Russia: 18%* Denmark: -28% Sweden: -25% Australia: -20% Switzerland: -27% Source: OECD statistics directorate, August 30, 2013

15 WHY BLACK CREEK? WHY NOW? Focus Experience Results Flexible size Global investing should see tailwinds Cohesive, team-focused strategy The need to think long term has never been greater

16 OUR GOALS FOR OUR CLIENTS
Positive returns Competitive returns — beat competitors, indexes and ETFs Beat fixed income … So far, so good.

17 BLACK CREEK PERFORMANCE
As at August 31, 2013: YTD 1YR 3YR 5YR Since inception* Black Creek Global Leaders Fund Class A 20.2% 35.3% 12.9% 7.8% 3.5% MSCI World (C$) 19.0% 26.4% 13.5% 4.6% 3.8% Black Creek International Equity Fund Class A 18.4% 41.8% 15.2% 12.5% 12.7% MSCI EAFE (C$) 27.3% 9.3% 1.9% 5.0% Black Creek Global Balanced Fund Class A 11.5% 27.9% 11.0% 7.9% 4.0% Global Balanced Index** 11.4% 15.4% 8.5% 8.0% 2.2% ** Black Creek Investment Management took over management of Global Leaders on June 15, 2006; inception date is February 2005. *February 2005 *September 2008 All of these competitive advantages have culminated in a very impressive track record. Their goal is to give your clients invested in Castlerock International Equity, Castlerock Global Balanced Fund and Castlerock Global Leaders, a better future return. And if you look at the performance, they have done just that. All Funds significantly beating their respective index, and by a LARGE margin. They have provided positive performance in difficult markets over all time periods. All of their funds have been 1st quartile for 2 and 3 years, basically since they began managing them. However, the main point I want to get across is that these performance numbers are just a continuation of the track record and reputation that they have built over 20 plus years of managing money. *January 2007 Formerly known as Castlerock Global Leaders Fund, Castlerock International Equity Fund and Castlerock Global Balanced Fund Source: RBC Dexia, August 31, ** 60% MSCI World Index CAD/40% JPM GBI C$ 17

18 IT’S NOT ABOUT COUNTRY ALLOCATION BUT OUR BEST 25 BUSINESS IDEAS
Flexible all-cap go-anywhere mandates Avoid areas of high valuation risk; the converse is also true Fewer companies to follow = depth of research/competitive analysis = conviction in our choices High deviation from index results in outperformance Disciplined BUY/SELL process – replace our least favourite idea with our newest idea K.J. Martijn Cremers and Antti Petajisto of the Yale School of Management have conducted primary research into active management and defined active share. Cremers and Petajisto studied portfolios from 1980 through 2003, and discovered that those displaying the greatest active share tended to outperform their relevant indexes Similarly, a 2008 study titled "Best Ideas" by Randolph Cohen at the Harvard Business School, Christopher Polk at the London School of Economics, and Bernhard Silli at Goldman Sachs defends high-conviction portfolios. The authors studied managers' favorite stocks and showed that, in fact, those stocks outperformed funds' appropriate indexes. Although Morningstar analysts don't rely heavily on active share when we debate and choose our Analyst Picks, our picks confirm the thesis that high active share is highly correlated with good performance.

19 BUSINESSES YOU DO NOT FIND AT HOME
Wienerberger Wuxi Pharmatech Carnival Corp. GPO Televisa Galp Energia Randstad Holding Publicis Groupe Accor Heidelberg Cement Christian Dior Bricks and ceilings Pharmaceutical supply Cruise line Media and television Oil & gas Staffing services provider Communications Hotel operator Cement & building materials Luxury consumer items

20 SUMMARY While bonds and real estate are priced for perfection, equities are fairly valued – the equity market is the place to be Black Creek is different, by focusing we deliver in the long term A world of opportunities exists. STOP reacting to the headlines, have a focused strategy to take advantage of them Buy the best opportunities you can find, anywhere! Stay flexible but disciplined Thank you for your support. We really mean it, we know it is hard out there for all equity investors

21 Thank you FOR ADVISOR USE ONLY 21
All charts and illustrations in this guide are for illustrative purposes only. They are not intended to predict or project investment results. ®CI Investments, the CI Investments design are registered trademarks of CI Investments Inc. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise indicated and except for returns for periods less than one year, the indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in security value. All performance data assume reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. 21

22 WHY INVEST GLOBALLY? Equities are outperforming fixed income
The Canadian dollar is overvalued by 10% - 30% We seek companies that are GLOBAL leaders (we consider Canada as well)

23 WHAT WE DELIVER Our diversified global portfolios provide exposure to:
25 global market share leading companies Lower than average long-term valuations A proprietary view of the future of each company Focus, focus, focus … Portfolios that do not track indexes — we are trying to BEAT the index

24 AREAS TO AVOID GIVEN PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 10 TO 15 YEARS
Real estate and banks in commodity-centric countries “Safe” multinationals in “safe” industries Consumer companies in emerging markets Bonds and bond proxies in safe countries “Dividend and income first” stories rather than those supported by a business case and valuations Watch return of capital deception

25 OUR PRODUCTS Black Creek Global Leaders Fund
Black Creek Global Leader Corporate Class (focused equity) Black Creek International Equity Fund Black Creek International Corporate Class (EAFE) Black Creek Global Balanced Fund Black Creek Global Balanced Corporate Class (dividend and income)

26 DIVIDENDS AND INCOME Black Creek Global Balanced Fund provides a mix of the two Fixed-income portfolio offers yield over 5% Equity portfolio near 3% yield BUT we buy the businesses first, and receive dividends later

27 BLACK CREEK’S COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
Structure: owned by the investment managers Integrity: invest our own money in funds Experience: award-winning managers (global, balanced, international, European) More than 50 years of combined experience Have managed over $23 billion in assets Have seen booms and busts all over the world Conviction: 25 globally leading companies – each a proprietary idea Small fund size: allows for flexibility Black Creek is very unique in the industry, And have competitive advantages I feel make them the ideal choice as global managers Privately owned, no shareholders to worry about, they are strictly managing money. Own money invested in funds they manage. That means their interests are aligned to that of their investors. Benefit from strong performance, just like your investors They have over 40 years combined tenure and experience in managing over $20 billion in AUM. “Go anywhere” mandates maximize expertise, they search the entire world for the best opportunities. Conviction, they run concentrated portfolios with only their best ideas. And with concentrated portfolio’s the ideas truly has to be the best one to make it on to the portfolio.

28 THE CASE FOR EQUITIES Equity markets peaked in 2000 – not “normal” returns Earnings yield attractive relative to bond yields Free cash flow yields are even higher Dividend yields higher than bonds (very rare) Investor sentiment is terrible globally (buy low, sell higher)


Download ppt "ARE WE PRICED FOR PERFECTION?"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google