1. Housing Markets in Italy after the crisis Uberto Visconti di Massino ERES 2010, June the 25 th, 2010

2. UVM ERES 2010 Agenda 1.the Real Cycle and residential values 2.The PAST 3.The PRESENT 4.The FUTURE 5.The FUTURE 2: a great potential 2

3. UVM ERES 2010 3 the Real Cycle and residential values

4. UVM ERES 2010 Theory & practice 4

5. UVM ERES 2010 5 The PAST

6. UVM ERES 2010 Past cycles in Italy 6 I II IIIVI Source Scenari Immobiliari - Italy

7. UVM ERES 2010 What went wrong? 7

8. UVM ERES 2010 Residential cycle analysis, results 8

9. UVM ERES 2010 (residential) 9 Overview of the past (repeating itself?)

10. UVM ERES 2010 A market going crazy…. 10 Source: data processing by Reddys Group spa on data Censis, Agenzia del Territorio - Servizio Statistiche Giudiziarie The Honeycomb cycle (Residential property in Lombardy)

11. UVM ERES 2010 11 The PRESENT

12. UVM ERES 2010..... after 3 years 12 Overview of some current indicators N° sales from 200 to 2007 province 67 to 72% / capitals 33 to 28%) The shift towards deurbanization was due to Moving out to buy a better, cheaper home New stock available outside, + gardens ! 2009: there had been 600k sales: - 15,6% national level (I sem 2009 on I sem 2008) … of which – 12% on capital cities / -17% in province The back to town shift province to capitals due to Difficulties in commuting Lower periphery prices Vs province prices

13. UVM ERES 2010..... after 3 years 13 Overview of some current indicators - prices from 2000 to 2007 prices increasing, then decreasing: National level: – 6,3% (2009/2008) End 2008 on I sem 2008: -3,6% I sem 2009 on II sem 2008: -2,7% (decline reducing?) Focus on cities: Milan and Florence better than average lower prices in cities due to inelasticity of new built (province) Peripheries versus city centers peripheries loosing more in value: lower quality homes Less immigrants demand for old homes (in peripher.)

14. UVM ERES 2010 14 The FUTURE

15. UVM ERES 2010 Overlook, a correlation 15 Italian GDP and constructons. Euroconstruct onCresme et Al. - Dec 2008

16. UVM ERES 2010 Real Estate and the Economy 16

17. UVM ERES 2010 The Italian market (residential) 17 Overview In general, Demand wise we can have three scenarios. The refer to the economic forecasts : if UPSIDE, then ALL TARGETS (residential) will recover in 2010 if BASE scenario: in 2010 we will have only the NEED TO BUY NEED TO RENT ones active in the market, and in 2011 ALL TARGETS if DOWNTURN, we will have NEED TO BUY in 2011 and ALL TARGETS active in 2012. (NEED TO BUY= have savings and need more space, more rooms (consolidated families whose children are growing) NO BUY: those who can only rent (young couples, no children), professionals singles, senior couples (still using their old home, empty nesters)

18. UVM ERES 2010 The market cycle in the current setting : forecasts 18 Fonte: nostra elaborazione su fonti varie tra cui Scenari Immobiliari, Banca dItalia.

19. UVM ERES 2010 19 Table 1, Rents : popular (ERP, 1 e 2), sustainable (ERS, in the box, 3 -4), and free market Source: our calculatios on : ACER, Fondazione Cariplo, Co-Housing Venture, Scenari Immobiliari Whare are we now?

20. UVM ERES 2010 20 THE FUTURE 2 What next? Sustainable homes (social housing – Edilizia Privata Sociale) in Italy

21. UVM ERES 2010 A shift in the residential mindset 21 From 100 B.C. to 1800 Brick and mortars (the roman insula to the condo.) In 1900 the first revolution Electricity – hydraulics 2006 – 2020 the second revolution Energy saving and sustainability In 2011 the third revolution The ethic side, management and common services. Institutional investors

22. UVM ERES 2010 S.H.- What is it? Some cases 22 Social Housing 360° - arch. LAURA ROCCA Fonte: RoccAtelier (www.roccatelier.it)www.roccatelier.it E.R.S. a Crema, Fondazione Cariplo, Fondo Abitare Sociale - architetti D2U Fonte: Jacopo della Fontana ( www.d2u.it) www.d2u.it

23. UVM ERES 2010 23 Social Main Street – Bicocca, Milano- arch. DANTE BENINI Fonte: studio Urbam – C.d.O. Concorso Figino (Fond Cariplo) arch. CINO ZUCCHI e Avventura Urbana Fonte: www.avventuraurbana.itwww.avventuraurbana.it S.H.- What is it? Some cases

24. UVM ERES 2010 24 Some models to learn from : Social Housing in the Netherlands

25. UVM ERES 2010 Social Housing in the Netherlands 25

26. UVM ERES 2010 Social Housing in the Netherlands 26

27. UVM ERES 2010 Social Housing in the Netherlands 27

28. UVM ERES 2010 CONCLUSIONS 28

29. Uberto Visconti di Massino Milano Corso Italia, 17 20122 Milano Tel. 02 00621170 Fax. 02 00621189 Roma Via XX Settembre, 1 00187 Roma Tel. 06 42020939 Fax. 06 42020951 www.epf.it epf@epf.it 29 GRAZIE - THANK YOU !