1. Umrabulo Dialogues Redress of State Capture: The Pros & Cons
Pali Lehohla

2. Lembede 1945 Freedom in our lifetime What drives state capture : State as a contested being Role of Scenarios Whose interests have captured the state Whose interests will continue to capture the state

4. Meeting Basic Needs Developing Our Human Resources Building the Economy Democratising the State and Society Implementing the RDP

5. What drives state capture: Life has equal worth

14. What are the plans from the many talking heads?

15. Gwara Gwara: Immiserising growthP O S I B L U C M
Gwara Gwara: Immiserising growth
After the 2019 election, the new government’s main focus was on uprooting “state capture” as a way to reignite the economy.
Even less income and wealth trickle down to the masses as the austerity-focused approach imposed annual cuts in real spending on social services and government transfers.
After the 2024 election, under a coalition government, there were increasing talks of “shock therapy” from some key cabinet members.
Consequently, measures were adopted to withdraw state subsidies, cut public works programmes, reduce the real value of social grants, privatise more of the SOEs, abandon Buy South Africa and localisation policies, cut taxes and adopt a more restrictive inflation targeting approach.
As an outcomes of these measures, the country moved to an immiserising growth path, with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.
How far off are we from this scenario?

16. Isibhujwa: Trickle down pathM
Isibhujwa: Trickle down path
In this scenario, the policy status quo is retained after the election.
Microeconomic supply side measures are used to propel the economy onto a higher growth and employment path …
while the macroeconomic austerity approach is directed to reduce the debt through expenditure cuts.
Consequently, future performance of the economy continues to resemble the past.
The economy stuck in a low growth path and benefiting the rich more than the poor.
Continue on the austerity pathway…
What economic policy can we expect from the Nedlac Process

17. How do we reach GDP Growth levels above 5%?
External Support
0.12%
5,7% Growth
Private Support
0.79%
Social Policy
0.05%
Macro Reforms
1.43%
Fiscal policy continues to limit annual increases in general government
Investment by public corporations annually increases by 6%.
Monetary policy continues to strictly adhere to inflation targeting.
Phase 4 of EPWP is introduced in 2019
The social security programme remains unchanged, with grant amounts adjusting by 6% annually.
No new major social policy measures are introduced over the next 12 years.
The level of foreign direct investment in South Africa will continue at 0.05% of GDP.
The gold price annually increases by 1%.
The nominal value of total world imp
Business as usual
The Pre-COVID-19 Scenario
Private sector increases investment in the South African economy by R500 billion over the next 12 years.
Public Investment Corporation (PIC) increases its investment in the South African economy by R100 billion by annually investing R20 billion in the manufacturing sector between 2019 and 2023 (5 years).
Private Sector Support
The level of foreign direct investment in South Africa gradually increases from 0.05% to 0.13% of GDP between 2019 and 2030.
The gold price annually increases by 2%
The nominal value of total world imports grows annually by 8%.
External Support
Government and public corporations systematically increase their investment
Government’s annual current expenditure is raised The Reserve Bank acts to use monetary policy tools to contribute to the goal of achieving a growth target of 6%
Monetary authorities adopt necessary measures to raise the annual growth of the credit extension to the private sector to 15%.
Macro Reforms
Investment in the manufacturing sector by R10 billion
Increasing total exports by an additional 1.5
Reducing the import dependency ratios
Trade and Industry
Tourism sector exports expand
Output of the Trade, Catering and Accommodation Services sector,
Export from the agriculture sector
The price of the transport, storage and communication sector declines
Labour productivity
Increases in competitiveness
Micro Reforms
With many unemployed people being absorbed in various economic activities, including SEZs, industrial parks as well as small and micro-enterprises
The DSD introduces a new caregiver grant, for family members that take care of a child who receives either a child support grant or a care dependency grant.
Social Policy
Trade and Industry
0.38%
Micro Reforms
0.27%
Business as usual
0.70%
2% Growth

18. Nayi le Walk: Pro-growth Pro-poor pathS I B L U C M
Nayi le Walk: Pro-growth Pro-poor path
Austerity gives way to a growth orientated approach that includes:
Pro-growth macroeconomic policy that provides a life raft for the country, with fiscal policy providing higher funding for economic and social infrastructure investment and service delivery.
Monetary policy supports economic growth and eases access to credit by the private sector (business and households)
Social policy is directed toward creating part-time jobs for the unskilled-unemployed and lowering poverty
Trade and industry policy is centered on a social contract where corporations get extra support in return for creating good paying jobs in the country
PIC significantly invest in the economy, especially the manufacturing sector
Is This Scenario One That Makes Bread Affordable

19. Re-emergence of the RDP
Meeting Basic Needs Developing Our Human Resources Building the Economy Democratising the State and Society Implementing the RDP