1. The Rational Reverend’s Razor is Sharpe!
Andy Novobilski, Ph.D.
Chief Research Officer
One curious guy!

2. Full Disclosure … There are no new ideas ...
THE Binary Computer
Patterns just make sense
Allows for simplifying assumptions
People are fascinating ...
Exceptionally creative
Creatures of habit
Capable of leaving the box on their own
Insatiable desire to be understood

3. Rational Behavior
People will do things that are in their best interest.
What is “best interest?”
People can defer immediate gain for a bigger gain in the future.
Balance current value against future value.
The model breaks
Sometimes people are selfless, some don’t care.
Best interest – the airplane story

4. If People are So Complicated …
Imagine what AIs will be like.
Gene Rodenberry
Arthur C. Clarke, Isaac Asimov, …
Steven Spielberg, George Lucas
Jonathan Nolan
How will we know when we’ve achieved it?
Alan Turing
Colleagues in Neural Science might get there first!
Horta’s, turing machine sigle tape

5. Distilling Observations to Code
Sir William of Occam
And his razor …
Games
We love to play – actual or vicariously
We’ll bet on anything
Tit for Tat

6. Brain Based Learning … Ten Strategies to consider Movement matters
Social Conditions Influence Learning
The brain changes
Chronic Stress is an Issue
Differences are the rule
Learning happens in small chunks
Arts are important
Emotional states (social skills) Matter
The Brain can Change
Memories are Mallable

7. Model Children Learning to Play?
The Reverend Thomas Bayes
A letter written to a friend, published after Bayes died.
Laplace Develops it, and then
the Central Limit Theorem
Why a Bayesian Belief Net and not a Neural Net?

8. One Way to Do It …
Amazing how the same tools that forecast medical outcomes will work to forecast market outcomes.
Sensor function of the brain emulated by adaptive k-Means algorithm.
Decision network function of the brain emulated by Bayesian Belief Network (naïve?).
Model Search supported by genetic algorithm

9. Tying it Back to Basics How to learn belief nets?
How well did the system do?
Single value measure
ROC Curve Evaluation
When is it time to retrain?
What’s missing?
Emotional content

10. What Does Intelligent Mean …
When the game isn’t Zero-sum?
Force Majeure, Force D’government
Disruptive Techno-ideological Interference
When competing “games” overlap and rational behavior is difficult to understand.
When people continue to evolve, yet remain true to their nature over time?

11. If You’re Looking for Something to Do
Kids at tend to be open to exploring new ideas
Find a Master Teacher for grades 4-7 and find out what works.
Pedagogy
Measurements
What white/grey matter models make sense in this context?

12. Questions … Andy Novobilski, PhD andy.novobilski@ung.edu
Drop an if you want to talk …