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Evidence-Based Incorporation of Serum Sodium Concentration Into MELD

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1 Evidence-Based Incorporation of Serum Sodium Concentration Into MELD
Scott W. Biggins, W. Ray Kim, Norah A. Terrault, Sammy Saab, Vijay Balan, Thomas Schiano, Joanne Benson, Terry Therneau, Walter Kremers, Russell Wiesner, Patrick Kamath, Goran Klintmalm  Gastroenterology  Volume 130, Issue 6, Pages (May 2006) DOI: /j.gastro Copyright © 2006 American Gastroenterological Association Institute Terms and Conditions

2 Figure 1 Overall survival. The thick line represents survival probabilities for the whole cohort included in this analysis. Thin lines represent individual centers. Transplantation and other withdrawals from the list were censored. Gastroenterology  , DOI: ( /j.gastro ) Copyright © 2006 American Gastroenterological Association Institute Terms and Conditions

3 Figure 2 Distribution of serum sodium in patients with and without ascites. Ascites was commonly (63%) present in our patients, whereas low serum sodium (<130 mEq/L) was relatively uncommon (8%). Most patients (90%) with low serum sodium had ascites. Gastroenterology  , DOI: ( /j.gastro ) Copyright © 2006 American Gastroenterological Association Institute Terms and Conditions

4 Figure 3 Risk of death within 6 months of listing, adjusting for the MELD score and center. The risk of death increased most linearly between serum sodium of 120 and 135 mEq/L. Confidence intervals widened noticeably <120 and >140 mEq/L, indicating smaller number of observations. Solid line represents best fit. Dotted lines represent the 95% confidence band. Gastroenterology  , DOI: ( /j.gastro ) Copyright © 2006 American Gastroenterological Association Institute Terms and Conditions

5 Figure 4 Comparison of MELD coefficients between refit vs original models. Solid circles represent refit coefficients (95% CI) derived from the current data without serum sodium included in the model. Open circles represent coefficients derived from the current data with serum sodium included in the model. Asterisks represent coefficients used in the current MELD. The analysis included 8 patients on hemodialysis whose creatinine values were used without modification. One of the centers did not provide information on dialysis. Excluding these 8 patients from the analysis did not change the model. Gastroenterology  , DOI: ( /j.gastro ) Copyright © 2006 American Gastroenterological Association Institute Terms and Conditions

6 Figure 5 Risk of death within 6 months of listing by MELD-Na. Solid line represents best fit. Dotted lines represent the 95% confidence band. Gastroenterology  , DOI: ( /j.gastro ) Copyright © 2006 American Gastroenterological Association Institute Terms and Conditions

7 Figure 6 Correlation between the MELD-Na and the MELD. Bisecting lines represent 121 transplantations performed within 6 months of listing. The 33 patients in the left upper quadrant would have been favored by the “MELD-Na” over those in the right lower quadrant, who receive higher priority under the current system. Gastroenterology  , DOI: ( /j.gastro ) Copyright © 2006 American Gastroenterological Association Institute Terms and Conditions


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